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Bird Flu: How worried should we be?

Chance Abattoir
Future Rockin' Resmod
Join date: 3 Apr 2004
Posts: 3,898
10-27-2005 13:03
From: Nyoko Salome
currently, we can catch it from the birds, but not necessarily from each other(?) - someone with more info, please correct me on any of this...


I've been following the news of it since late last year, so I think I can regurgitate some useful info. This is from so many articles that I am not going to footnote anything, but if you are interested in where I got the info, pm me and I'll see if I can dig up the appropriate article as I have many of the links saved in my gmail.

Yeah, we can't catch it easily from other humans yet but every new human case makes it more likely that the virus will mutate to transmit more easily from person to person. The virus used to be more lethal than it is now but that kind of infection rate isn't sustainable if you're killing off all your hosts, which is why it is down where it is now. A few months ago, Chinese poultry farmers innoculated their poultry with one of the only two human drugs at the time that was effective against the virus, making the virus immune to that drug. Also, Tamiflu is now wearing off even though everyone is still stockpiling it (viruses are funny like that). In case you care about more politics of the situation, even if the drug continues to work, it probably doesn't matter if Roche licenses other companies to make Tamiflu because it is manufactured from Star Anise- and supposedly that crop is getting very low at the moment (although I just bought some from Ranch 99 market the other day for $0.99 ::shrug:: ). Anyway, there is only a limited amount of the raw material and having multiple companies make it probably won't make it be produced much faster.

Supposedly once the first successful human to human version of H5N1 hits, it's going to take 3 days for it to reach every corner of the globe thanks to modern transportation. This is obviously makes scenarios for initial quarantine problematic when you remember that the gestational period of viruses is 2-3 days before you even get symptoms. And even then you have to wonder during the initial symptoms if it is normal flu or the kind of flu where you start coughing up blood from your lungs. Since there's might not be a way to know when it has first started, protect yourself by not ever touching your face, eyes, nose, or mouth while in public places or if you've recently been in public places (and if you are a parent, don't accidentally give them a deadly pathogen because you want to wipe something off their face :) ). Buy N95 masks, I think Amazon sells them for ~$18/ 20ct, because suppliers will run out almost immediately if the virus goes human to human.

Okay, the last thing I want to say is directed toward everyone who is getting angry about the possibility of martial law in the U.S. Sure I like to jump on the I hate Karl Rove's minions hate train as much as half the country, but even considering that this administration has opportunistically used tragedy to benefit its own agenda (just as the Dems would have if they were in power) and misused power to restructure voting districts (Texas) and passed questionable laws and created a whole new section of the government to watch its citizens and on and on and on... How do you propose that we maintain water, electricity, food, and order to whole cities under quarantine WITHOUT USING THE MILITARY? Think about it.
_____________________
"The mob requires regular doses of scandal, paranoia and dilemma to alleviate the boredom of a meaningless existence."
-Insane Ramblings, Anton LaVey
Nyoko Salome
kittytailmeowmeow
Join date: 18 Jul 2005
Posts: 1,378
wow,
10-27-2005 19:27
super-great summaries, chance and doc!! :) elucidated many important points - while retaining emphasis on that it's still only possibility... it -could- happen. and the gestation period (2-3 days to first symptoms) is a big, big point... it seems to about negate the 'burn' rate, if it kept its 48-hr symptom-to-kill time. yiiiiiiii...

and 100% kill (albeit in poultry)?? good god/dess - pardon if it sounds flippant, but that's worse than AIDS!! (a terrible and slow 'cancer;' i've watched several folks die from it :( ) and - it's a -flu,- fer cryin' out loud... ebola has a more 'limited' range, as far as its transference/infection m.o., so that's why it's transference rate during 'burn' is more easily controllable...

nope - any doubters wondering if it's just a waste of time to worry about, this sucker -could- be 'ultra fast-acting super flu-AIDS'.

hey, when was 'swine flu' the big worry - back in the early-ish seventies, wasn't it?? that would be an interesting one to read about, hopefully in contrast to these current avian fears - that had some impact, from what i remember, but nowhere near a 'catastrophic' level of lives lost...

and because i simply -can't- resist politics, i must contribute... :) though i don't want it to necessarily hijack the initial thread...

From: Chance Abattoir
Okay, the last thing I want to say is directed toward everyone who is getting angry about the possibility of martial law in the U.S. Sure I like to jump on the I hate Karl Rove's minions hate train as much as half the country, but even considering that this administration has opportunistically used tragedy to benefit its own agenda (just as the Dems would have if they were in power) and misused power to restructure voting districts (Texas) and passed questionable laws and created a whole new section of the government to watch its citizens and on and on and on... How do you propose that we maintain water, electricity, food, and order to whole cities under quarantine WITHOUT USING THE MILITARY? Think about it.


i haven't posted an opinion on it before (i don't think ever, really:) but your reply caught my attention more than the smatterings of 'martial law fear' previous (here, and also via dkos/other cool blogs:) - so now, i'll consider some thoughts regardin'...

i'm not terribly afraid of martial law, in and of itself, per se, as i trust our -military,- our -people,- as one of us, even if that's a route of public service i did not wish to pursue myself... talking one-on-one with anyone, a soldier, a serviceman(person:), a cop, a priest, a preacher, a businessman(person:), a homeless person... this is not a problem, as when left to our own resources at a local level, we've all already in five years had more 'nationwide outreach' events than any time before in modern history; the way we all had feelings of 'reaching out' to help, after 9-11, and katrina... we -can- take care of each other, without much 'shit' happening.

buuut, who i don't trust are members of that now nearly abstract elected league, now -zealously- protected from -any- sort of casual contact from the public dialogue, from public opinion, taking such charge. to reference the same events again, both 9-11 and katrina were, at large, preventable disasters - both also had 'clinton-era' reports and plans-of-action (and even current 'daily action memos') that were ignored - either recklessly distrustful of clinton-legacy materials as 'valid precidence', to only claim 'incompetence' - or as purposeful 'criminal negligence' for the political gain, file under 'treason' and 'reckless endangerment'.)

for example, though fema is an organization entirely capable of declaring martial law on a disaster-struck locality (and though they never did declare), it sure -felt- like n.o. was under martial law for three weeks or so!! it certainly was up to the national guard/other forces to come in and make sure what -could- be done -was- done... the police dept. was completely, literally 'swamped' with this situation. who the hell else can come in and help?? but, there was -no food, no water- to provide, and without those, you -will- have problems.

ahhhh, but that only takes competence at at least one or more levels of govt. powerful enough to push the right actions... and alas, right now, we just don't have it. the stacks are -so loaded- with disfunctional incompetents, i just have no idea when next it's gonna bite us 'good americans' in the butt!! (ooooo, that's scary, eh kids?? :) - hey, i finally did a 'count floyd' imitation... heheh :) happy halloween!! :)

well, returning to the subject of 'killer-flu', that would be such a widespread epidemic that there would be problems with the dilution of forces spread across much of the nation... well, i know n.o. isn't the only primarily-poor-but-extremely-developed area of the country that will suffer neglect from those who -only- think about money, or about the money they'll make from rebuilding what's lost. that's my worry, i guess, for now... :)

BOOOOO! heheheh... 'wasn't that scary keeds? you don't think depression isn't scary, keeds? didn't you seem them?? they couldn't - function in this world, with those faces, all those faces... -alright,- that wasn't scary! igmar bergman... who booked bergman?!' - my terrible count floyd impersonation again!!:)

p.s. oh, and as far as 'democrats use political gain as much as 'anybody else'' :) (which really only seriously means -republicans- :) iran-contra; afghanistan; central america; the ignanimous end of the vietnam 'conflict'; arming the world, particularly the middle east (re: afghanistan, the taliban, and osam-bin-lad); arming sad-dam; flip-flopping from peaceful, sharing treaties (so 'for'neers' don' have to move -here-:) to stand-offish refusals to honor previous administration's efforts - making my 'home sweet home' seem kneejerk, 'turncoat' to the world, as so polarized as to have the feel of tradeoffs every four or so years of benevolent/malevolent dictatorships.

let's face it, we hardly have a friend left in the world, literally; witness the disintegration of the iraq coalition forces. and i also would say, let's face it; dems have had only 12 of the last thirty-five years, and their transgressions are of a much lighter variety than the R's. it's a matter of scale, z'all i'm sayin'... :)

kinda funny how those gas prices fall, the more the admin's poll numbers drop, the closer the indictment threats get, eh? :) -happy- h'ween, y'all!! :)
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Nyoko's Bodyoils @ Nyoko's Wears
http://slurl.com/secondlife/Centaur/126/251/734/
http://home.comcast.net/~nyoko.salome2/nyokosWears/index.html

"i don't spend nearly enough time on the holodeck. i should go there more often and relax." - deanna troi
Chance Abattoir
Future Rockin' Resmod
Join date: 3 Apr 2004
Posts: 3,898
10-27-2005 22:15
I doff my cap to you nyoko. Truly that was the most insane post I've seen since that guy who forgot his "i." :D
_____________________
"The mob requires regular doses of scandal, paranoia and dilemma to alleviate the boredom of a meaningless existence."
-Insane Ramblings, Anton LaVey
Seth Kanahoe
political fugue artist
Join date: 30 Jan 2005
Posts: 1,220
10-27-2005 23:09
I'm afraid bird hunting of any kind will have to be outlawed. :)
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Zuzu Fassbinder
Little Miss No Tomorrow
Join date: 17 Sep 2004
Posts: 2,048
10-28-2005 09:17
From: Seth Kanahoe
I'm afraid bird hunting of any kind will have to be outlawed. :)


So, what's it all about, Alfie?
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From: Bud
I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either.
Nyoko Salome
kittytailmeowmeow
Join date: 18 Jul 2005
Posts: 1,378
lol!! :)
10-28-2005 19:11
From: Chance Abattoir
I doff my cap to you nyoko. Truly that was the most insane post I've seen since that guy who forgot his "i." :D


-thank- you... it's hard work being crazy!! :) lol... i got lil' scrubbin' bubbles in my brain, goin' down the drain... 'we work hard, so you don't have toooooooo!!' fwip... fwip... fwip...

p.s. heh - and who was 'the guy who forgot his 'i''?? now you've left me scratching my head... :)
_____________________

Nyoko's Bodyoils @ Nyoko's Wears
http://slurl.com/secondlife/Centaur/126/251/734/
http://home.comcast.net/~nyoko.salome2/nyokosWears/index.html

"i don't spend nearly enough time on the holodeck. i should go there more often and relax." - deanna troi
Chance Abattoir
Future Rockin' Resmod
Join date: 3 Apr 2004
Posts: 3,898
10-28-2005 19:18
From: Nyoko Salome

p.s. heh - and who was 'the guy who forgot his 'i''?? now you've left me scratching my head... :)


Touche.
_____________________
"The mob requires regular doses of scandal, paranoia and dilemma to alleviate the boredom of a meaningless existence."
-Insane Ramblings, Anton LaVey
Beclamide Neurocam
3.14159265
Join date: 8 Oct 2005
Posts: 70
10-29-2005 13:34
If you're a bird you should worry

If you're a human, like me, then you'll be fine as long as you don't get a cold then kiss a duck
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