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Bird Flu: How worried should we be? |
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Athel Richelieu
Registered User
Join date: 7 Jul 2004
Posts: 203
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10-26-2005 21:17
Its been on the cover of Times and Newsweek, and it seems governments are panicing to build up supplies of treatments for the flu. Many many scientists are saying that it is on its way to becoming a global pandemic, when and if the virus mutates to spread between humans. 150 million people could be killed within a few months. It is said it could be next Spanish Flu or even the Black Death. Should we be worried? Any one researched it any more?
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Nyoko Salome
kittytailmeowmeow
![]() Join date: 18 Jul 2005
Posts: 1,378
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well...
10-27-2005 00:37
not to contribute to worrisome feelings, but i understand this avian flu thing has around a 50% mortality rate. (!!!) not very common to have something come along with that kinda rate... that SARS thing a few years back was only like 2%.
buuut, from the sound of it, it currently hasn't fully jumped to humans - the asian casualties, i think, were all poultry farmers/market workers who handled infected birds (more of a 'direct contact' thing, though breathing in minute particles of feathers/excrement, i think, can infect someone). so currently, we can catch it from the birds, but not necessarily from each other(?) - someone with more info, please correct me on any of this... but that possible 'big jump' to a human-transferable disease could happen anytime; one of those things that's hard to predict. if you took a 'census' of the whole world's population of these viruses, they would outweigh the human pop by a factor of several million, i would think! that means that that possible varient, air-communicable, is already brewing out there, waiting for the right opportunity, if ya will, to become the one to jump out. i guess i'm now wondering if at one time, bird flu -wasn't- dangerous to humans at all, but now thanks to farming/handling practices, has been encouraged towards becoming dangerous to humans... i know there's an 'avian flu wiki' online someplace, i've never visited myself. will have to go read up on it!! _____________________
![]() Nyoko's Bodyoils @ Nyoko's Wears http://slurl.com/secondlife/Centaur/126/251/734/ http://home.comcast.net/~nyoko.salome2/nyokosWears/index.html "i don't spend nearly enough time on the holodeck. i should go there more often and relax." - deanna troi |
Kris Ritter
paradoxical embolism
![]() Join date: 31 Oct 2003
Posts: 6,627
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10-27-2005 00:39
Imma carry a baseball bat around with me now. Any steenkin' bird comes near me and it'll be *BAM* and a flurry of flying feathers. Yeah.
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Siobhan Taylor
Nemesis
![]() Join date: 13 Aug 2003
Posts: 5,476
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10-27-2005 00:54
Worried? Well, it could make a species jump, but who's to say it'll be anything like as bad in humans? It's right to be prepared sure, and I do worry a little, but it won't change my life.
Psyra, on the other hand, is probably petrified by now! _____________________
http://siobhantaylor.wordpress.com/
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Chosen Few
Alpha Channel Slave
Join date: 16 Jan 2004
Posts: 7,496
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10-27-2005 00:59
Honestly, I'm much more worried about King George W's plan to use it as an excuse to declare martial law than I am about the flu itself.
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Torley Linden
Enlightenment!
![]() Join date: 15 Sep 2004
Posts: 16,530
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10-27-2005 01:07
Imma carry a baseball bat around with me now. Any steenkin' bird comes near me and it'll be *BAM* and a flurry of flying feathers. Yeah. You aren't concerned stray blood from the whack-attacks will infect your pores? _____________________
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Mulch Ennui
15 Minutes are Over
![]() Join date: 22 May 2005
Posts: 2,607
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10-27-2005 01:09
Honestly, I'm much more worried about King George W's plan to use it as an excuse to declare martial law than I am about the flu itself. good, im glad i am not the only one who realizes the plan _____________________
I have of late--but wherefore I know not--lost all my mirth, that this goodly frame, the earth, seems to me a sterile promontory, this most excellent canopy, the air, look you, this brave o'erhanging firmament, this majestical roof fretted with golden fire, why, it appears no other thing to me than a foul and pestilent congregation of vapours.
http://forums.secondcitizen.com/ |
Frostie Flora
Dilly-Dally Shilly-Shally
![]() Join date: 27 May 2004
Posts: 526
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10-27-2005 01:11
I wont be worried as long as I stay in my house, so far in the past 5 months i've had 25 birds try to plant their face into my window after eating from the 'crazy berries' tree,
so uh, yeah nothing to worry about, >-> *Holds Kris up in front of her while running screaming away* _____________________
(\ /) (o.o) (>< ![]() /_|_\ |
Mulch Ennui
15 Minutes are Over
![]() Join date: 22 May 2005
Posts: 2,607
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10-27-2005 01:12
I wont be worried as long as I stay in my house, so far in the past 5 months i've had 25 birds try to plant their face into my window after eating from the 'crazy berries' tree, so uh, yeah nothing to worry about, >-> *Holds Kris up in front of her while running screaming away* wow man... where is this crazy berry tree? _____________________
I have of late--but wherefore I know not--lost all my mirth, that this goodly frame, the earth, seems to me a sterile promontory, this most excellent canopy, the air, look you, this brave o'erhanging firmament, this majestical roof fretted with golden fire, why, it appears no other thing to me than a foul and pestilent congregation of vapours.
http://forums.secondcitizen.com/ |
Frostie Flora
Dilly-Dally Shilly-Shally
![]() Join date: 27 May 2004
Posts: 526
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10-27-2005 01:43
wow man... where is this crazy berry tree? Across the road and far away, well just across the road, huge tree on the other side of the road in front of our house, home to 90 birds, the birdy version of a berry smack house, _____________________
(\ /) (o.o) (>< ![]() /_|_\ |
Nyoko Salome
kittytailmeowmeow
![]() Join date: 18 Jul 2005
Posts: 1,378
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lol...
10-27-2005 02:09
well, -this- won't help in the worry dept., but i found the flu wiki:
http://www.fluwikie.com/ and there's a long list of other fluFAQs, including this one: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/ i should mention, i can't remember where i got that 50% figure - think it was from an npr interview, and not sure if it was based off the recent casualties to this strain. in the 'who' faq, they mention a particularly bad variant that kills a whole farm of poulty, 100% in 48 hours flat!! i'm not sure if this is the exact strain in the human cases, though... just because it has that kind of 'quick kill' behavior in one species doesn't necessarily mean it'll have the exact same statistics if it migrates to another species. however, if it manages to make it, it would most likely be a very dangerous, and potentially very devastating modern plague to deal with, on top of everything else going on! -but,- i only have a 'street knowledge' approach to the subject, so please take all this with 2 tsp. salt. i only do it occassionally, but i find reading about diseases and plagues fascinating; there's a certain 'logic' diseases seem to have, without necessarily being 'conscious' of it (though that could draw out into a big ol' discussion of 'turing tests' and metaphysical scales of life ![]() if you're looking for more good RL-based scares, try 'the hot zone' (i know most have probably already read it, but if you hadn't... it has some particularly good horrorshow descriptions of how ebola works - not to mention some of the scenes of infections - pretty 'ew-yuck' stuff!!) and 'lab 257' (not necessarily quite as 'human gross', but if you're a vegetarian/sympathetic, some scenes where they have to destroy the whole animal test population are rather gruesome). sigh - onto happier subjects; is that crazy berry tree 'crazy' all year, or just in the fall (if you're a 'northern hemisphere-r' ![]() ![]() hmmm, maybe the -drunk- birds will live through the flu... if so, we'll have to, too!! ![]() _____________________
![]() Nyoko's Bodyoils @ Nyoko's Wears http://slurl.com/secondlife/Centaur/126/251/734/ http://home.comcast.net/~nyoko.salome2/nyokosWears/index.html "i don't spend nearly enough time on the holodeck. i should go there more often and relax." - deanna troi |
Alexa Hope
Registered User
Join date: 8 Dec 2004
Posts: 670
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10-27-2005 03:47
My local supermarket has removed all chickens and turkeys from their shelves. I saw a woman in Asia on tv who had recovered from avarian flu so I would say it has already jumped to humans.
Time to barricade myself in the house ![]() Alexa _____________________
Hiroland resident
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Ursa Falcone
Rocket Scientist
![]() Join date: 26 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,989
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10-27-2005 04:24
The early edition of the Paranoid Review had coverage of the flu and states that it is the current US administration's solution to global oil shortages - and well just about any shortage - well except shortage in the male 'special part' - which is unfortunately the issue at hand in the current administration.
paranoia = a heightened state of awareness _____________________
Jeska Linden: I'm closing this thread because it's obviously overstepped the boundaries of useful conversation, even for the off-topic forum. |
Doc Nielsen
Fallen...
Join date: 13 Apr 2005
Posts: 1,059
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10-27-2005 04:44
Shall we try a few verifiable facts?
The current nasty strain af Avian Flu (H5N1) is confined to birds and can only be transmitted to humans via close contact (inhaling excrement dust, feather particles, handling raw carcasses with bare hands, eating uncooked poultry products, etc) In those cases where humans have been infected and suffered symptoms requiring hospitalisation, the virus has proved fatal in approximately 50% of cases despite the administration of anti-viral drugs and intensive care. This indicates a degree of lethality on par with the 'Spanish Flu' and probably far in excess of that. The danger is that, someone already suffering from or carrying a 'normal' human flu virus becomes infected with H5N1 and the virus' combine. This might happen many times with no adverse result. However it is possible that the result could be a virus combining the worst elements of both - a virus with the lethality of H5N1 which is passed from human to human as easily as 'normal' flu. The worrying thing is that IF this happens it will take considerable time, 6-12 months, to produce a vaccine effective against the human form of H5N1, during which time it is probable that many people could become infected and die. However, as yet there is no evidence of a human form of H5N1 emerging. The reason that attempts (largely futile in my opinion) are being made to limit the spread of avian H5N1 is to head off the possibility of humans catching it and producing the hypothetical human H5N1. DON'T handle dead wildbirds or domesticated birds that die suddenly or for no apparent reason. DO not allow any domesticated birds to come into contact with wild birds. Be sensible. Don't panic. _____________________
All very well for people to have a sig that exhorts you to 'be the change' - I wonder if it's ever occurred to them that they might be something that needs changing...?
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Vestalia Hadlee
Second Life Resident
Join date: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 296
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10-27-2005 05:23
Doc's description above is excellent -- Among the best less-than-a-page summaries I've read on the subject. Bravo.
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Omaire Abattoir
O-Magine
![]() Join date: 26 Jun 2004
Posts: 86
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10-27-2005 07:37
Honestly, I'm much more worried about King George W's plan to use it as an excuse to declare martial law than I am about the flu itself. We all know the terrorists, undoubtedly, released the first infected bird. And the bird went on a raging rampage to destroy all freedom. And now, it is our duty to defeat the birds. We won't rest 'til we do. We will find the BMD (birds of mass destruction). Trust me on this! ![]() O _____________________
Avs - Furniture - Other Cool Stuff
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billy Madison
www.SLAuctions.com
![]() Join date: 6 Jun 2004
Posts: 2,175
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10-27-2005 07:40
Its been on the cover of Times and Newsweek, and it seems governments are panicing to build up supplies of treatments for the flu. Many many scientists are saying that it is on its way to becoming a global pandemic, when and if the virus mutates to spread between humans. 150 million people could be killed within a few months. It is said it could be next Spanish Flu or even the Black Death. Should we be worried? Any one researched it any more? I am a vampire, immune to all that plagues this earth, seriously though If i die from the bird flu it was ment to be, nothing to worry about.. i trust gods choice if i live or not. _____________________
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Psyra Extraordinaire
Corra Nacunda Chieftain
![]() Join date: 24 Jul 2004
Posts: 1,533
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10-27-2005 07:46
*double checks all the padlocks, security systems, guard dogs, land mines, and orbital defense turrets surrounding his nest.*
".....Never arrive. Then the ones that do arrive they never leave you never see them go, but they're always departing but they never arrive. Then the ones that do arrive they never leave you never see them go, but they're always departing but they never arrive. Then the ones that do arrive they never leave you never see them go, but they're always departing but..." *huddles in a ball* _____________________
E-Mail Psyra at psyralbakor_at_yahoo_dot_com, Visit my Webpage at www.psyra.ca
![]() Visit me in-world at the Avaria sims, in Grendel's Children! ^^ |
Omaire Abattoir
O-Magine
![]() Join date: 26 Jun 2004
Posts: 86
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10-27-2005 08:02
*double checks all the padlocks, security systems, guard dogs, land mines, and orbital defense turrets surrounding his nest.* *huddles in a ball* Great, now these birds have mutated in to lock picking, security defying, dog killing, land mine detecting, orbital defense dodging birds? Luckily, we still have nets. ![]() O _____________________
Avs - Furniture - Other Cool Stuff
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Siobhan Taylor
Nemesis
![]() Join date: 13 Aug 2003
Posts: 5,476
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10-27-2005 08:06
We all know the terrorists, undoubtedly, released the first infected bird. And the bird went on a raging rampage to destroy all freedom. And now, it is our duty to defeat the birds. We won't rest 'til we do. We will find the BMD (birds of mass destruction). Trust me on this! ![]() O And now begins the War on Birds. _____________________
http://siobhantaylor.wordpress.com/
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Zuzu Fassbinder
Little Miss No Tomorrow
![]() Join date: 17 Sep 2004
Posts: 2,048
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10-27-2005 10:19
The real worry isn't this specific strain of avian flu, the worry is that we aren't prepared for a flu pandemic in general. Flu viruses are endemic an many animal populations and a small number of them "jump the species barrier" and become human-to-human transferrable. Although the chance of any one strain doing this is small, there are enough varients that this happens on a reguar basis and is the reason that every year the flu vaccine must be changed. The danger is that some time a more virulent strain may become human-to-human transferrable. The risk of this is fairly small, but it has happened before (i.e. the spanish flu). Therefore, it is important that we have a plan of action ready for when one of these once-in-a-century disasters happen (you know, like a devestating hurricane striking New Orleans). Attention in the media was drawn to this because this strain of bird flu is especially deadly, although the chances of that strain "jumping the species barrier" is fairly low (especially with all the precautions that are being taken). Nonetheless, it is important to be prepared in general.
Side note on the Spanish flu. Some theorize that this espeically deadly strain made the jump in the extremely unhealthy conditions of the trenches in France (this was during WWI for those wondering). The governments of the powers at war at the time went through great lengths to suppress these news stories so that their opponents wouldnt try to exploit their weakness. Spain was neutral and when the flu hit there the newspapers reported the epidemic freely. Observers in the US first heard of the flu through the Spanish press and dubbed it the "Spanish flu". _____________________
I don't want no commies in my car. No Christians either. |
Chance Abattoir
Future Rockin' Resmod
![]() Join date: 3 Apr 2004
Posts: 3,898
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10-27-2005 12:18
It is said it could be next Spanish Flu or even the Black Death. The Spanish Flu was worse than Black Death, so reverse that. ![]() They're not even very comparable since "Black Death" is bacterial and influenza is viral. _____________________
"The mob requires regular doses of scandal, paranoia and dilemma to alleviate the boredom of a meaningless existence."
-Insane Ramblings, Anton LaVey |
Chance Abattoir
Future Rockin' Resmod
![]() Join date: 3 Apr 2004
Posts: 3,898
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10-27-2005 12:22
You aren't concerned stray blood from the whack-attacks will infect your pores? CDC: Human influenza is transmitted from person-to-person primarily via virus-laden large droplets (particles >5 μm in diameter) that are generated when infected persons cough or sneeze; these large droplets can then be directly deposited onto the mucosal surfaces of the upper respiratory tracts of susceptible persons who are near (e.g., within 3 feet) the droplet source. Transmission may also occur through direct and indirect contact with respiratory secretions. Transmission from environmental surfaces has not been demonstrated by epidemiologic studies. ____ So... No. You need to have it come in contact with your mucous membranes, so unless she starts licking the bird or rubbing the blood in her eyes or nose, then she'll be fine. ![]() Just keep the splash pattern directed out and away. _____________________
"The mob requires regular doses of scandal, paranoia and dilemma to alleviate the boredom of a meaningless existence."
-Insane Ramblings, Anton LaVey |
Zapoteth Zaius
Is back
![]() Join date: 14 Feb 2004
Posts: 5,634
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10-27-2005 12:28
CDC: Human influenza is transmitted from person-to-person primarily via virus-laden large droplets (particles >5 μm in diameter) that are generated when infected persons cough or sneeze; these large droplets can then be directly deposited onto the mucosal surfaces of the upper respiratory tracts of susceptible persons who are near (e.g., within 3 feet) the droplet source. Transmission may also occur through direct and indirect contact with respiratory secretions. Transmission from environmental surfaces has not been demonstrated by epidemiologic studies. ____ So... No. You need to have it come in contact with your mucous membranes, so unless she starts licking the bird or rubbing the blood in her eyes or nose, then she'll be fine. ![]() Just keep the splash pattern directed out and away. *whacks the bird* *whacks the bird* *bird sneezes* Ahhhrg! Nooo! Run Away! _____________________
I have the right to remain silent. Anything I say will be misquoted and used against me.
--------------- Zapoteth Designs, Temotu (100,50) --------------- ![]() |
Chance Abattoir
Future Rockin' Resmod
![]() Join date: 3 Apr 2004
Posts: 3,898
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10-27-2005 12:29
Well, it could make a species jump, but who's to say it'll be anything like as bad in humans? This virus constellation hasn't existed before in our species, that's the same reason the Spanish Flu was so deadly-- no immune defenses. Our body will be like, "wtf is that?" So if it goes human to human, it will be a nasty bugger. _____________________
"The mob requires regular doses of scandal, paranoia and dilemma to alleviate the boredom of a meaningless existence."
-Insane Ramblings, Anton LaVey |