Where will Mainland prices be in three weeks?
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Dnali Anabuki
Still Crazy
Join date: 17 Oct 2006
Posts: 1,633
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07-31-2007 07:21
From: Raymond Figtree Now that I think of it, content creators would be a tiny bit miffed if people had to limit what they could put in their inventory. How else can we make basic members' lives miserable?  They could store items outside of their inventory when it gets close to 500. Which means they would have less trouble TPing (I hear a big inventory slows you down) than a premium member. So they actually would have a better experience of SL and be more organized..hmm, I might go back to basic just for that! I think the biggest plus for premium is land ownership and more stake in SL. And I hope land prices are whatever price they have to be for people to afford a decent amount to they have the prims to be able to use the SL build tools to good effect. |
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Raymond Figtree
Gone, avi, gone
Join date: 17 May 2006
Posts: 6,256
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07-31-2007 07:25
From: Dnali Anabuki They could store items outside of their inventory when it gets close to 500. To do that, wouldn't you need land? To get land, don't you need to be a premium member? ah ha! Genius!
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Dnali Anabuki
Still Crazy
Join date: 17 Oct 2006
Posts: 1,633
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07-31-2007 07:40
From: Brash Zenovka
, but to me, what SL represents is really nothing less than the future of the internet, and those are simply not prices that are going to accomplish that
*snip*
SL may not have the substructure to support this anyway. They may either need to have a "second generation" Third Life, or watch helplessly as someone like Google steps in. But right now, SL has the advantage, and I assume the reason they are trying to get so many realworld businesses to base here, is to cement that advantage. Eventually investors are going to go, where the money is. And that doesn't mean sales based off $L250 prim shoes.
Free accounts actually help some. People will come more easily if they think they are not walking into a money-draining "lets dress up and play house" type of online Sims game. But they might come if its free, and they might stay if its fun, and if Second Life does prove out its longterm potential, eventually decide to commit financially. But not for those kind of entrance fees, I think. I think eventually, more land will keep being added and initial land purchase costs will gradually keep dropping and tier fees become increasingly the main revenue source, but ONLY until The Great Advertising Age kicks in to keep the boiler engines running. It worked for radio, for television, for the internet, and I think eventually for SL too. Or whatever name the next generation takes.
Anyway, I am keeping my eye on land prices, but it may be a long wait before I ever buy any ^_^
These looked rather nice though.
Tempting.
Hmmm......
I like your take on things but I think also it is the age where profit comes from a little money from a lot of people rather than a lot of money from a few people. And SL has some problems with scaling large enough to fit that model. I think corps would have the best shot if they learned about SL first and instead of creating large builds, they create places where people interact or do something. It is not a case of build it and they will come in SL. I think the Snakes on a Plane buzz on the Internet that led to no effect on the box office whatever exposed the lack of real effect Internet buzz has in the RL or sway it has on where the money goes. Having land in SL commits you in a deeper way to the place and my spidey sense says that it will be the interaction between individuals from all over the world that creates a dynamic and revenue that is hard to see now. I think it has to do with the creative outlet; SL may become a creative enclave that somehow effects how the world goes...as I said, its just a tingle of a spidey feeling now..but its keeping me in SL and spending far more money on land than I would have ever considered possible a year ago. Its all about user content and people creating for each other I think and you need land to do that. |
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Dnali Anabuki
Still Crazy
Join date: 17 Oct 2006
Posts: 1,633
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07-31-2007 07:49
From: Green Panther
*snip*
I relied heavily on slot machines and other gambling products to pay tier and other expenses on land while trying to sell it. I wasn't the only one. Unless you are going for what most people is absurdly high volume and associated investment, there aren't many other worthwhile strategies.
The only real alternative to going for economies of scale like the land barons, is to put up advertising. That in itself devalues land which, ironically, makes the advertising steadily less and less profitable. From what I've heard no one who pays advertisers to promote their product makes any money anyway, apart from the now defunct casinos.
*snip*
.
You are more clever with your money than I am but I do think that there is another choice that people like Desmond and Anshe chose and that is to create beautiful/theme spaces where people want to settle. That won't be banned by LL and has turned out to be profitable for the people who do it..It takes longer but I think it works better in the long run. The draw of a visually beautiful location is strong (we tend to be highly visual people in SL). I wasn't intending to rent any land, I bought cause of the "like the view, buy it" reality but people have seen the area and have asked to be part of it. I am a reluctant landlord but I have to say that its been really wonderful so far and the people who are attracted to what attracts you are like minded. I still think we need really good hangout spots/clubs where people can interact and get to know each other when they feel social. Clubs come and go so fast now, many of my land marks are outdated! Stand up comedians and karaoke! |
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Dnali Anabuki
Still Crazy
Join date: 17 Oct 2006
Posts: 1,633
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07-31-2007 07:50
From: Brash Zenovka Today I saw a land sale ad in search, oddly listed under "Events", for lots on a private island. I was bored and popped over for a looksee. The area seemed very nice and the prices looked a lot less than I expected based on the $L9/m2 price I often hear for mainland, especially the $7.08/m2 for the 4096 lots:
Cost of Land
Size * Purchase Price
1 (65536 m2) $512000L
1/2 (32768 m2) $256000L
1/4 (16384 m2) $128000L (sale $118, 000)
1/8 (8192 m2) $64000L (sale $62,000)
1/16 (4096 m2) $32000L (sale $29,000)
1/32 (2048 m2) $16000L
I'm not yet near ready to plunk down $109 RL cash for a 4096 lot and commit myself to tier fees. I am also not sure if these were unusually low prices. Right now I am happy with my $L250/wk 1024 newbie lot ^_^ and when they kick me out after 120 days, I'll give it more thought.
I can't help but think in SL, initial land purchase prices are going to keep dropping, to fit into my own vision of SL -- which of course may not be your vision of SL. I may be very very wrong, but to me, what SL represents is really nothing less than the future of the internet, and those are simply not prices that are going to accomplish that.
SL may not have the substructure to support this anyway. They may either need to have a "second generation" Third Life, or watch helplessly as someone like Google steps in. But right now, SL has the advantage, and I assume the reason they are trying to get so many realworld businesses to base here, is to cement that advantage. Eventually investors are going to go, where the money is. And that doesn't mean sales based off $L250 prim shoes.
Free accounts actually help some. People will come more easily if they think they are not walking into a money-draining "lets dress up and play house" type of online Sims game. But they might come if its free, and they might stay if its fun, and if Second Life does prove out its longterm potential, eventually decide to commit financially. But not for those kind of entrance fees, I think. I think eventually, more land will keep being added and initial land purchase costs will gradually keep dropping and tier fees become increasingly the main revenue source, but ONLY until The Great Advertising Age kicks in to keep the boiler engines running. It worked for radio, for television, for the internet, and I think eventually for SL too. Or whatever name the next generation takes.
Anyway, I am keeping my eye on land prices, but it may be a long wait before I ever buy any ^_^
These looked rather nice though.
Tempting.
Hmmm...... Wait until you see who buys the neighboring plots though.. Best to buy into an established neighborhood so you know what you are getting into. |
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Dnali Anabuki
Still Crazy
Join date: 17 Oct 2006
Posts: 1,633
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07-31-2007 07:51
From: Jannae Karas Two words:
Ad Farms Alternate browser that visually mutes them..available now! |
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Jannae Karas
Just Looking
Join date: 10 Mar 2007
Posts: 1,516
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07-31-2007 08:01
From: Dnali Anabuki Alternate browser that visually mutes them..available now! Don't just be a tease Post the link.
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Qie Niangao
Coin-operated
Join date: 24 May 2006
Posts: 7,138
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07-31-2007 08:02
From: Raymond Figtree To do that, wouldn't you need land? To get land, don't you need to be a premium member? ah ha! Genius! Well, no, you'd need to *rent* some land. And you can get a lot of Inventory into 3 prims on a dead adfarm 4x4, that should rent for--oh, I dunno, less than a short camping spell at a casi-- err... never mind. |
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Meade Paravane
Hedgehog
Join date: 21 Nov 2006
Posts: 4,845
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07-31-2007 08:06
From: Dnali Anabuki ...less trouble TPing (I hear a big inventory slows you down) I think TP issues are more related to objects you have active in your inventory. Worn prims, HUDs, stuff like that. Ones with scripts are more expensive than ones without.
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Nina Stepford
was lied to by LL
Join date: 26 Mar 2007
Posts: 3,373
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07-31-2007 08:13
thats not selling land in the conventional sense. selling/auctioning to a known middleman is not the same thing as putting abandoned land 'for sale' (not auctioned) or cutting up a region and selling plots direct. $2,200 is great, but new member tier is even better. $1000 spent on a rack server is nothing compared to the tier it can earn. From: Raymond Figtree Yep. In a way they do: it's called an island. Too bad they don't sell smaller sized plots. The current tier fee structure must be working for them.
I don't think they want prices to go much lower than they are now. Otherwise they would be releasing more of the new continent to auction. As I've said before, they like getting US$2,200 minimum for their full auctioned sims. |
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Dnali Anabuki
Still Crazy
Join date: 17 Oct 2006
Posts: 1,633
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07-31-2007 08:24
From: Jannae Karas Don't just be a tease Post the link. Here ya go. People who have tried it, love it. http://ablewhitman.org/viewer/I'm using First Look now so haven't used it yet. More info on http://nicholaz-beresford.blogspot.com/Nicholaz is the royalty of open source browsers. I have used his and they are great. |
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Sling Trebuchet
Deleted User
Join date: 20 Jan 2007
Posts: 4,548
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07-31-2007 08:36
From: Meade Paravane I think TP issues are more related to objects you have active in your inventory. Worn prims, HUDs, stuff like that. Ones with scripts are more expensive than ones without. During one bad SL-wide bad-TP time a while back, when friends were stranded, I took to TPing naked and gadgetless. OK - I kept my hair! - and I was careful about where I was going to Only try this at home kids!!!! It did make a big difference - and I'm talking about TP reliability here! I should add that I don't use bling or any scripted attachments other than a walk-replacer and a flight assist. Short flexie hair and flexie clothes would be the usual extent of my "lookameeeee". |
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Tegg Bode
FrootLoop Roo Overlord
Join date: 12 Jan 2007
Posts: 5,707
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08-01-2007 00:55
So what I don't get is why ypeople pay $2-3k for a sim from auction or a landbroker when you can order a new island for $1800 other than the waiting time.
Or is the joining to other sims worth more?
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Ace Albion
Registered User
Join date: 21 Oct 2005
Posts: 866
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08-01-2007 00:59
Because you sell off the land on the sim you won on auction and you walk away with your pockets stuffed with money.
If you buy an island, you're stuck paying tier and chasing rent.
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Elanthius Flagstaff
Registered User
Join date: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 1,534
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08-01-2007 01:24
From: Tegg Bode So what I don't get is why ypeople pay $2-3k for a sim from auction or a landbroker when you can order a new island for $1800 other than the waiting time.
Or is the joining to other sims worth more? Not only that, but you pay $200 a month for a mainland sim and $300 a month for a private sim. You'd totally recoup your losses in 6 months. Even better if you get fed up with owning a whole sim you can cut it down to half a sim and sell the rest. With a private island it's utterly impossible to own anything less than the entire 65536sqm. Further, demand for mainland is higher than private islands because there a dozens of people who can afford a sim but thousands of people who can afford a 512.
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Visit http://ninjaland.net for mainland and covenant rentals or visit our amazing land store at Steamboat (199, 56). Also, we pay L$0.15/sqm/week for tier donated to our group and we rent pure tier to your group for L$0.25/sqm/week. Free L$ for Everyone - http://ninjaland.net/tools/search-scumming/
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Raymond Figtree
Gone, avi, gone
Join date: 17 May 2006
Posts: 6,256
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08-01-2007 01:33
Elan, where will mainland prices be in three weeks? Since the casino ruling, they haven't budged... Is the raising of the minimum auction bid a foretelling of a 40-50 sim dump to auction? Are there a ton of casino owners waiting till their tier is up before they dump? Help the novice prognosticator... 
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Elanthius Flagstaff
Registered User
Join date: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 1,534
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08-01-2007 02:21
From: Raymond Figtree Elan, where will mainland prices be in three weeks? Since the casino ruling, they haven't budged... Is the raising of the minimum auction bid a foretelling of a 40-50 sim dump to auction? Are there a ton of casino owners waiting till their tier is up before they dump? Help the novice prognosticator... I think it's impossible and pointless to try to guess. Every couple of weeks something insanely unpredictable happens. Like, base auction price changes, casinos get banned, new continents, land flippers go out of business, auctions dry up for a week, ridiculously large number of sims dropped on the market at once, etc, etc. If you forced me to guess I'd say that prices will continue to wobble around the 10.0 mark, the same as they have for the last 2 months. I quite like your earlier idea that LL are actively managing auctions so that prices stay at 10. At the very least if we all believe it then it will come true! BTW, this might be interesting, it's the average price of all the parcels listed on the front page: 28/05/2007 11:51 9.421782178 29/05/2007 06:35 9.521782178 30/05/2007 22:59 9.544554455 31/05/2007 19:44 9.630693069 01/06/2007 09:25 9.625742574 03/06/2007 01:42 9.768316832 03/06/2007 10:08 9.882178218 04/06/2007 05:32 9.868316832 05/06/2007 05:32 9.886138614 06/06/2007 09:13 10.01683168 09/06/2007 14:15 10.11287129 14/06/2007 06:00 10.22673267 20/06/2007 08:35 9.916831683 21/06/2007 08:03 9.824752475 23/06/2007 13:07 9.705940594 23/06/2007 23:22 9.747524752 24/06/2007 21:56 9.758415842 25/06/2007 00:00 9.778217822 27/06/2007 05:40 9.987128713 28/06/2007 20:34 10.03168317 30/06/2007 12:48 10.05742574 01/07/2007 21:08 10.02277228 04/07/2007 05:42 10.04158416 06/07/2007 20:19 10.12475248 08/07/2007 12:08 9.891089109 10/07/2007 23:16 9.927722772 14/07/2007 10:21 9.934653465 15/07/2007 10:28 9.794059406 16/07/2007 22:49 9.885148515 17/07/2007 21:28 9.77029703 18/07/2007 05:56 9.765346535 20/07/2007 20:04 9.579207921 22/07/2007 05:58 9.706930693 26/07/2007 22:50 9.504950495 28/07/2007 10:50 9.402970297
_____________________
Visit http://ninjaland.net for mainland and covenant rentals or visit our amazing land store at Steamboat (199, 56). Also, we pay L$0.15/sqm/week for tier donated to our group and we rent pure tier to your group for L$0.25/sqm/week. Free L$ for Everyone - http://ninjaland.net/tools/search-scumming/
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Raymond Figtree
Gone, avi, gone
Join date: 17 May 2006
Posts: 6,256
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08-01-2007 10:03
From: Elanthius Flagstaff I think it's impossible and pointless to try to guess. Every couple of weeks something insanely unpredictable happens. Like, base auction price changes, casinos get banned, new continents, land flippers go out of business, auctions dry up for a week, ridiculously large number of sims dropped on the market at once, etc, etc.
If you forced me to guess I'd say that prices will continue to wobble around the 10.0 mark, the same as they have for the last 2 months. I quite like your earlier idea that LL are actively managing auctions so that prices stay at 10. At the very least if we all believe it then it will come true!
BTW, this might be interesting, it's the average price of all the parcels listed on the front page:
28/05/2007 11:51 9.421782178
29/05/2007 06:35 9.521782178
30/05/2007 22:59 9.544554455
31/05/2007 19:44 9.630693069
01/06/2007 09:25 9.625742574
03/06/2007 01:42 9.768316832
03/06/2007 10:08 9.882178218
04/06/2007 05:32 9.868316832
05/06/2007 05:32 9.886138614
06/06/2007 09:13 10.01683168
09/06/2007 14:15 10.11287129
14/06/2007 06:00 10.22673267
20/06/2007 08:35 9.916831683
21/06/2007 08:03 9.824752475
23/06/2007 13:07 9.705940594
23/06/2007 23:22 9.747524752
24/06/2007 21:56 9.758415842
25/06/2007 00:00 9.778217822
27/06/2007 05:40 9.987128713
28/06/2007 20:34 10.03168317
30/06/2007 12:48 10.05742574
01/07/2007 21:08 10.02277228
04/07/2007 05:42 10.04158416
06/07/2007 20:19 10.12475248
08/07/2007 12:08 9.891089109
10/07/2007 23:16 9.927722772
14/07/2007 10:21 9.934653465
15/07/2007 10:28 9.794059406
16/07/2007 22:49 9.885148515
17/07/2007 21:28 9.77029703
18/07/2007 05:56 9.765346535
20/07/2007 20:04 9.579207921
22/07/2007 05:58 9.706930693
26/07/2007 22:50 9.504950495
28/07/2007 10:50 9.402970297 Thanks for chiming in. I agree guessing is impossible, but if I stop, I'll have to go back to work...Where did you get the great stats?
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Hypatia Callisto
metadea
Join date: 8 Feb 2006
Posts: 793
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08-01-2007 11:02
From: Green Panther Land just sucks as an investment.I dumped all mine the minute the gambling ban was announced. I think land is a bad investment on the mainland (everywhere actually), but not for the reasons you think. Gambling I believe, and seems to be borne out by the Lindex so far - had little real effect on the SL economy. Most of the money as you state, went to pay tier fees and then was cashed out. It left the economy and there was not much trickle down effect from it at all, other than the land that is now left over, which seems to be already getting sold. The one I hated for months is already sold, in fact. Never hit the market - it got sold to the neighbors who wanted it in the first place and one of which were outbid at auction by the "get rich quick" gambling scheme who jumped at the opportunity when a friend's account got repo'ed by LL, and paid far too much for the property. My pals are there for two years plus, and the flybynight is gone.  I suspect a lot of the better properties are going to disappear in that way, never hitting the actual land market but getting assimilated by the land owners in the area first. Now, the real threat to the Lindex and land market may be coming up next year, when sims go open source and we get a more sensible land sales model -um - server sales. If it goes that way, you're going to see sims available just like any other game or web server - order it and have it in a day or so from a variety of different merchants who are already well established in the business of colocation, for lower prices and full control over your assets. Linden will move to just charging for hookup to the grid and full chaos in the land market will ensue trying to compete with that. As a web developer, I look forward to that sort of model, but I can see the land brokers and rent skimmers hating it
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Qie Niangao
Coin-operated
Join date: 24 May 2006
Posts: 7,138
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08-01-2007 11:31
From: Hypatia Callisto Now, the real threat to the Lindex and land market may be coming up next year, when sims go open source and we get a more sensible land sales model -um - server sales. If it goes that way, you're going to see sims available just like any other game or web server - order it and have it in a day or so from a variety of different merchants who are already well established in the business of colocation, for lower prices and full control over your assets. Linden will move to just charging for hookup to the grid and full chaos in the land market will ensue trying to compete with that. I don't think it will work that way. Don't want to repeat myself from another thread, but I'd expect the monthly cost of interconnection to be higher than corresponding tier for LL-hosted sims--and more demand to pay that premium than LL will be able to supply, at least initially. (All having only an indirect relationship to land purchase prices, though.) |
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Hypatia Callisto
metadea
Join date: 8 Feb 2006
Posts: 793
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08-01-2007 14:43
From: Qie Niangao I don't think it will work that way. Don't want to repeat myself from another thread, but I'd expect the monthly cost of interconnection to be higher than corresponding tier for LL-hosted sims--and more demand to pay that premium than LL will be able to supply, at least initially. (All having only an indirect relationship to land purchase prices, though.) I somehow doubt it, because LL will be saving money not having to host the hardware themselves. Weighting the game so they have to buy more hardware which costs them salaries and maintenence doesn't make sense from an economic perspective. I've run some figures on what the general price probably would be, and it would lower the price of private sims to being about the tier they had before the price rise (including LL fees + server rental fees and colocation for an equivalent Class Five hardware), and the amount of money needed for setup will be drastically reduced. You would also be paying more overall, but you would have a bit of hardware that hosts four sims, and not one.
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Conifer Dada
Hiya m'dooks!
Join date: 6 Oct 2006
Posts: 3,716
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08-01-2007 14:52
I was selling 64m plots at under L$ 9 per square metre a few days ago - I think the same guy bought them all, although they were all in different sims. I had been using them as small stalls to sell goods but some good land became available in my home sim and I wanted it but didn't want to go over tier so I sold the plots cheap - all in about an hour!
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Hypatia Callisto
metadea
Join date: 8 Feb 2006
Posts: 793
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08-01-2007 15:01
From: Qie Niangao (All having only an indirect relationship to land purchase prices, though.) this is where you make your mistake. LL doesn't really give a fig about land purchase prices. Their expenses are server related, and employee related. Once they sell that server to you over the auction (heck, its not even a whole server, but a quarter of one), all they care about is collecting your server rental fees. I think it's not an unrealistic possibility that LL could even outsource the mainland to companies organised around their respective colocation facilities and spin them off to deal with it directly.
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Raymond Figtree
Gone, avi, gone
Join date: 17 May 2006
Posts: 6,256
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08-01-2007 15:15
From: Conifer Dada I was selling 64m plots at under L$ 9 per square metre a few days ago - I think the same guy bought them all, although they were all in different sims. I had been using them as small stalls to sell goods but some good land became available in my home sim and I wanted it but didn't want to go over tier so I sold the plots cheap - all in about an hour! Yes anytime you price your land for less than the lowest price in the market, it goes fast.
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Qie Niangao
Coin-operated
Join date: 24 May 2006
Posts: 7,138
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08-01-2007 16:45
From: Hypatia Callisto this is where you make your mistake. LL doesn't really give a fig about land purchase prices. Their expenses are server related, and employee related. Once they sell that server to you over the auction (heck, its not even a whole server, but a quarter of one), all they care about is collecting your server rental fees.
I think it's not an unrealistic possibility that LL could even outsource the mainland to companies organised around their respective colocation facilities and spin them off to deal with it directly. Right, but we're *agreeing* that the marginal cost of maintaining 1/4 of an Intel rack server in a datacenter is negligible. The cost underlying tier rental is vastly weighted toward provisioning of common services and development, and those costs remain however the sims themselves are hosted. I've even promoted a business model very like what you're suggesting as a way for LL to wholly divest itself of the low-margin commodity hosting they find themselves doing now--and not all that well. And I think we're also agreeing that the recurring fees are what LL cares about as a revenue stream, not the initial land price. That's why I said the open-server and alternative hosting--which procurement and setup costs are reflected (more or less) in land purchase prices--are only tangentially related to those ongoing costs (a small part of which is hosting, most of which is common services and development). So, I'm really not seeing where we disagree here. [Edit: Oh, maybe I do: just the speculation on whether the resulting prices will reflect savings from not having to do the hosting. Yeah, I accept that there's some cost savings there, but the interconnect isn't without resource demands of its own. Eventually there may be enough scale to spread those costs over to bring them down to the cost of hosting or even below, but I'd not expect that initially--nor would I expect the initial demand to be very price-sensitive, so LL could pretty much charge what it wants for interconnect, I suspect. But could be wrong.] |