Could this be the next Virtual World platform
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Desmond Shang
Guvnah of Caledon
Join date: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 5,250
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08-06-2007 16:48
From: Yumi Murakami IIf SL banned all adult content and casinos, would it still be market viable? I know of some sims somewhere where adult content is pretty minimal, there never were any casinos, and people are banging down the doors to get in. It's viable that way. Just like the way Disney took over the home movie market from the porn industry. I'm guessing the big competitor's 'break' will be this: the competitor will dump Second Life's illusion of an 'adults only' grid, open it up to 13 and older, and ride high off the raw sweet adrenaline that is the adolescent/teen entertainment dollar. Imagine gaining 20% or more marketshare advantage from the get-go. And only one look at There.com proves that the age groups largely find each other and self-segregate anyway. You see that on this grid too - it doesn't take a rocket scientist to spot kids.
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 Steampunk Victorian, Well-Mannered Caledon!
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Jack Sakigake
Registered User
Join date: 13 Nov 2006
Posts: 150
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08-06-2007 16:52
From: Desmond Shang *WORSE service you say? Yes, not kidding. Watch the new competitive world be managed by baby monkeys of the same species that seem to run most MMO's, in a buggy, alpha version grid thus lowering the service bar even lower. Let me put it this way: when Star Wars Galaxies came out, did it revolutionise customer service and community feedback in the online business? Buckle up, it's gonna be a bumpy ride. Yep.. Personally I think SL is no worse then any other MMO's company. And the good old days of SWG.. they used to have 2 dozens of careers you can choose from.. you can make pretty much anything with the proper schema.. and I was having fun building factories and mining in the Galaxy far far away while practicing to become a pilot and doctor...all of the sudden, Sony Online decided that too costly to fix and maintain such a huge grid, cut down to 6 careers and limited the things you can do in thing (concertrate on fighting) and take aways our pets!! (Yes my R2D2 is gone!) AND Jedi becomes one dime a dozen... Every single player complained and no one listen.. In comparison, I feel SL is much better. |
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Yumi Murakami
DoIt!AttachTheEarOfACat!
Join date: 27 Sep 2005
Posts: 6,860
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08-06-2007 17:02
From: Desmond Shang I know of some sims somewhere where adult content is pretty minimal, there never were any casinos, and people are banging down the doors to get in.
It's viable that way. Just like the way Disney took over the home movie market from the porn industry. Sure! I'm not saying that it _is_ the case that adult material is essential, only that people would have to be sure about this. Given your example of Caledon, would Caledon be viable if it was a whole world? I'm sure you make your tier back, but would that cover the costs of starting an RL company to run it, advertising it in RL places, etc? And if you did want to make a Caledon world - would you allow user content creation? I know there are a lot of extremely talented content creators in Caledon, but folks like yourself, Yuriko, etc, could all be hired by Caledon Corp. to produce the standard content. Would there then be a big market for the mediocre folk to create mediocre content, especially given that (unlike the SL mainland) on Caledon World it would stand out like an ugly sore thumb against the rest of the excellent things there? Would you achieve better content by spending your initial stake on the hours of work required to develop a user content creation system, or spending the same money on buying all the known, talented creators working for you copies of 3D Studio MAX that they can go wild with? Of course there are always new talented creators to be found - but you can log into Second Life to find them, or send potential recruits to SL's sandboxes! Much cheaper! |
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Zaphod Kotobide
zOMGWTFPME!
Join date: 19 Oct 2006
Posts: 2,087
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08-06-2007 17:11
I checked out the multiverse thing.
meh
Second Life will be light years ahead by the time it gets to where SL is today, if it ever does. I like the concept of a "multiverse" but I dislike the idea of it being proprietary. Open standards are the only way virtual worlds will be able to converge in the future.
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Elex Dusk
Bunneh
Join date: 19 Oct 2004
Posts: 800
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08-06-2007 17:16
This is the one I ponder: Areae http://www.areae.net/and hey... they're hiring http://www.areae.net/?page_id=11 |
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Usagi Musashi
UM ™®
Join date: 24 Oct 2004
Posts: 6,083
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08-06-2007 17:16
This might be the answer to the future. if they ever get the platform up.
Usagi
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Desmond Shang
Guvnah of Caledon
Join date: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 5,250
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08-06-2007 17:39
From: Yumi Murakami Given your example of Caledon, would Caledon be viable if it was a whole world? I'm sure you make your tier back, but would that cover the costs of starting an RL company to run it, advertising it in RL places, etc? We're about to find out, through no fault of my own. Sexual ageplay banned, gambling banned, age verification (farther than I'd go!), governmental tools (farther than I'd go!)... I think you see the trend. I'd not make a Caledon Corp. for the same reason the Company won't. One of the brilliant things about a (relatively) free SL is that it is self-correcting. Let the users do it - it's less expensive, it's what they want, and only do the most basic, basic enforcement of theme and common welfare that is necessary. Just my take on it; we are all about to find out 
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Osprey Therian
I want capslocklock
Join date: 6 Jul 2004
Posts: 5,049
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08-06-2007 17:50
I want to go from world to world or I see no point. I don't think in terms of rival worlds - more like different places in the 3d web. There can be variety in the places available, which is very important to me. I'd like it if the getting-from-one-to-another were easy.
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Teeny Leviathan
Never started World War 3
Join date: 20 May 2003
Posts: 2,716
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08-06-2007 18:22
From: Plato Cochrane How? It looks like the only point of the forest is to run around talking to other deer. Cute, but not the same thing. I think the WWIIolers would love this world if they get to bring their guns. 
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Mike Westerburg
Who, What, Where?
Join date: 2 May 2004
Posts: 317
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08-06-2007 18:33
From: Teeny Leviathan I think the WWIIolers would love this world if they get to bring their guns. Please, don't forget the crossbows...we need crossbows too.
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Charlotte Morellet
Registered User
Join date: 14 Aug 2006
Posts: 64
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08-07-2007 04:04
looks to me that Multiverse requires a good bit more programming knowledge to make your own game. I wonder how much pull a purely social world would be mixed in with all the other fighting type games. some of the descriptions of upcoming games sounded really cool, though.
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Alexa Susanto
Registered User
Join date: 3 May 2007
Posts: 232
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08-07-2007 05:32
Desmond - have you ever played Entropia?
There may be no monthly fees but you HAVE to keep depositing. All tools and armour decay and depending on what they are, can cost a lot to repair, usually after every hunting or mining trip. You buy ammo and go hunting and more often than not don't get enough loot back to cover the cost; same goes for mining. Land and houses (MA made) are phenominaly expensive. The avs are very basic - no flexi hair lol.
Despite all of the above, the people are generally nice, I've never seen a griefer, so I still play it for a couple of hours a day.
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Kim Anubis
The Magician
Join date: 3 Jun 2004
Posts: 921
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08-07-2007 09:57
I think Desmond's nailed it, and I like the Coke vs. Pepsi comparison -- which is better is going to come down to personal preference, brand loyalty, etc. From: Desmond Shang Funny that nobody mentions Activeworlds.
Second Life wasn't first, not by a long shot.
VRML, Activeworlds, There.com, Entropia, World of Warcraft (ya really), there's been a lot of them. Second Life is also by far the most expensive.
It's going to be interesting. What we'll see when competition comes is this:
1) lower prices
2) same or worse service*
3) two major players a la Coke/Pepsi and a lot of still-online-but-dead failures
4) a polarisation of demographics, possibly premium -vs- economy
5) a race to the lowest common market denominator; fewer daring risks taken
I'm guessing that Second Life will become Coke. There will be a competitor with arguably better specs, not much cheaper (why? because if SL is so expensive, why be less than 15% cheaper?).
The main competitor will be a successful Pepsi: without the firstness, without the initial marketshare, without literally millions who were 'educated' that Second Life is what the metaverse is supposed to look like. Try dropping an IBM user onto a Mac, or vice versa.
I think Second Life and its competitors will ultimately go the way of AOL/Compuserve. 20 year horizon. Why so long? Because it's not just like connecting websites - it's a lot more complicated, and perhaps more akin to the Win/Mac/Linux conundrum.
*WORSE service you say? Yes, not kidding. Watch the new competitive world be managed by baby monkeys of the same species that seem to run most MMO's, in a buggy, alpha version grid thus lowering the service bar even lower. Let me put it this way: when Star Wars Galaxies came out, did it revolutionise customer service and community feedback in the online business? Buckle up, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.
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Conifer Dada
Hiya m'dooks!
Join date: 6 Oct 2006
Posts: 3,716
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08-07-2007 10:15
I looked at a world called 'Worlds' the other day - very basic compared to SL but it still had lag and grey default textures!
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Ebonynight Oh
Registered User
Join date: 21 Jul 2007
Posts: 69
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08-07-2007 11:33
From: Jack Sakigake Yep.. Personally I think SL is no worse then any other MMO's company.
And the good old days of SWG.. ... Every single player complained and no one listen..
. their down to 80k subs I suspect they are listening to thoes old voices now when its too bloody late. Granted ALL of their MMOs have taken a hard hit. |
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Nite Zelmanov
Registered User
Join date: 25 Sep 2006
Posts: 37
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Open Source
08-07-2007 11:33
Something that hasn't come up yet in this thread are the open source goals of SL. In a recent speech at OSCon, Philip said that they are planning to open source the sim code ASAP, that he wants OUT of the hosting business, and that he believes that the only way to remain on top of a market built on "network effects" is by being the open standard.
In the long run, SL and its now-forming competitors will largely be offering all the same features. Which one users choose will have mostly to do with the idea of "network effects", the more people use a particular platform, the more compelling it is to choose that platform. Think ICQ vs. MSN. Luckily when it comes to IM, most people just run a multi-client these days (like I hope the Open Source SL viewer will someday become). Philip's theory is that in a world of similar platform alternatives that compete mostly based on network effect, the platform that is in the most people's hands - and has the most open model for modification and extensibility - will win. SL is seen as a first, it has reasonably wide adoption, and it is open and getting more so, will this prevent "competitors" from ever becoming relevant?
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SqueezeOne Pow
World Changer
Join date: 21 Dec 2005
Posts: 1,437
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08-07-2007 12:21
From: Nite Zelmanov Think ICQ vs. MSN. Luckily when it comes to IM, most people just run a multi-client these days (like I hope the Open Source SL viewer will someday become)... That's a good point. I think we need to look at this in terms more similar to IM. Back in the day I had like 6 accounts so I could talk with people I knew on all the different services they used. Then came Trillian! Then the other services set it up so you could communicate between them all. If they're smart (they=LL and all the other virtual world companies) they'll take their queues from the IM services rather than the concept of online games. WoW doesn't need to be connected to SWG but I need to be able to get into a chatroom/group chat on AIM with my buddy on MSN and be able to share files and whatnot. PS3's "Home" will be a similar concept. You can hang out with other PS3ers at your "house" and jump into different games together from there. Now Killzone will be somewhat compatible with Pokemon or whatever the hell else they have. I'm confident it'll end up working out.
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-S1. Pow
"Violence is Art by another means"
Visit Squeeze One Plaza in Osteria. Come for the robots, stay for the view!http://slurl.com/secondlife/Osteria/160.331/203.881
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Lexxi Gynoid
#'s 86000, 97800
Join date: 6 Aug 2007
Posts: 3,732
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08-07-2007 12:57
From: Kim Anubis I think Desmond's nailed it, and I like the Coke vs. Pepsi comparison -- which is better is going to come down to personal preference, brand loyalty, etc. I always preferred Dr. Pepper. I want a Dr. Pepper alternative.
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Conifer Dada
Hiya m'dooks!
Join date: 6 Oct 2006
Posts: 3,716
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08-08-2007 13:57
I haven't seen any virtual worlds that rival SL visually except the forthcoming Sony 'Home'. When we get Windlight, proper shadows an reflections, SL will look amazing
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Nina Stepford
was lied to by LL
Join date: 26 Mar 2007
Posts: 3,373
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08-08-2007 14:03
windlight doesnt bring those things though. light will still shine through walls and not cast shadows. From: Conifer Dada I haven't seen any virtual worlds that rival SL visually except the forthcoming Sony 'Home'. When we get Windlight, proper shadows an reflections, SL will look amazing |
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Abyssin Otoro
Registered User
Join date: 22 Jun 2006
Posts: 48
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08-09-2007 00:37
From: Nite Zelmanov In the long run, SL and its now-forming competitors will largely be offering all the same features. Which one users choose will have mostly to do with the idea of "network effects", the more people use a particular platform, the more compelling it is to choose that platform. Think ICQ vs. MSN. Luckily when it comes to IM, most people just run a multi-client these days (like I hope the Open Source SL viewer will someday become). Philip's theory is that in a world of similar platform alternatives that compete mostly based on network effect, the platform that is in the most people's hands - and has the most open model for modification and extensibility - will win. SL is seen as a first, it has reasonably wide adoption, and it is open and getting more so, will this prevent "competitors" from ever becoming relevant? Network effects are funny things. While everyone is racing to the bottom of the barrel, then yes, the one with the most users, gains the most. While features are aimed only at what the developers want, the same thing happens. At this point the only way to keep users is to lock them into the platform, by many means (hardware, software, data formats, etc, I am sure you can think of a good example here  . But this is not *always* the case, network effects are not the *only* thing at work, ever... If that lock in has not happened, or it is not strong enough, then the leader (or leaders), can and have been not only knocked out of the lead, but also knocked out of the race. A case study for those of you who are interested. Search engines. How many of you remember Infoseek? For a while there it was the leader of the pack (with its good phrase searching). Remember what happened next? Along comes Google, they gave everyone what they wanted in a search engine, a fast uncluttered, stable and working (doing what the *users* wanted, better search, not what the advertises wanted, bigger and more obtrusive ads) search engine. Is there anyone here that does *not* use Google for at least something today. One or two of the old search engines are still around, although most are just shell names, and you have other newer ones coming up. Network effect was not enough to save the old search engines, will it be enough for Second Life when someone enters the market and provides a stable, working and user focused environment? |
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Conifer Dada
Hiya m'dooks!
Join date: 6 Oct 2006
Posts: 3,716
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08-09-2007 02:23
From: someone windlight doesnt bring those things though. light will still shine through walls and not cast shadows. I know - that's why I said Windlight, proper shadows and* reflections - I was thinking of them as separate things. *actually I said 'an' but that was a typo! I imagine ultimate goal of the race is to become THE standard virtual platform, the Microsoft of virtuals, if you like. Imagine an architect being able to design a house (I mean really, in detail), go for a Gran Torismo style race, meet and voice chat with his/her family and then sit on a beach and listen to music all in the same virtual world. OK, that can all be done after a fashion already in SL, but imagine what the prize would be for LL if it could compete with the best professional / specialist packages in all those fields. |