Your prim/texture business is at risk no matter what, and CopyBot has no effect.

I am not meaning to come off cynical with this post. I do want to point out facts of which every business owner should make themselves aware.

Assumed: SL continues to increase in size and features.

1. SL will have better search tools made available, either by Linden Lab or through some third party.
2. More and more content creators will make more and more items available.

Combine and stir.

Result: Residents will have easy access to hundreds of similar products which will force sellers to slash prices to compete.

Advice: If you wish to survive as a vendor of virtual items:
1. Start learning to script or get friendly with someone who can. Scripts already are the differentiating factor in most items, and will only continue to be the things that make your products stand out.
2. Focus on doing custom work. There's an exponentially increasing demand for talented builders of all sorts for Metaverse Development Companies. We also pay in US$, not L$. (At least, the scrupulous ones.)
3. Establish a rock-solid brand name that will keep customer loyalty.

Notice, CopyBot has nothing to do with your real business risk.

Conversely, those who feel CopyBot is a threat, I say this:

1. Since CopyBot has been declared abuse-reportable by Linden Lab, anyone caught selling things made by CopyBot risk losing their money, account, land, etc.
2. No one will make very much money with CopyBot before being discovered. We as a community have grown too good at spotting freebie-resellers and outing them; this same skill will combat *any* sort of Copyright infringement.
3. Spamming "!quit" is pointless. If you stop panicking and think, you'd realize anyone unscrupulous enough to use CopyBot to steal items will just remove that line of code that accepts the "!quit". Don't be a spammer. It lags sims and pisses people off.

Interesting.

So what is this CopyBot of which you speak then?

Not sure if you're being sarcastic or not . Search the forums for the word copybot and you'll find enough threads about it to keep you busy for a week .

I really wasn't being sarcastic. Yes, there are a lot of mentions of copybot on the forums, with people decrying it as a herald of the end of the universe etc. Plenty of people have posted saying how bad it is, but no one seems to have bothered to explain what it actually is and what it actually does.

Spotted this Copybot explanation recently. Seems the most factually based I've seen, http://www.sluniverse.com/forums/Topic12759-1-1.aspx

Is it bad that I want it?

I've read up a little more about it. World of Warcraft had simillar problems with a third party system that was being used to analyse incoming data packets so unscrupulous players could find where monsters and treasures were. WOW couldn;t stop it, and it looks suspisciously like LL won't have any better success here unfortunately.

We can live in hope though.

EDIT
I've read a little more and it seems that CopyBot can only copy prims and textures. Bad news for clothing designers, good news for everyone else. CopyBot cannot copy scripts - which, lets face it, are the most valuable part of most commodities. Clothes and non-scripted prims can be made with a minimum of fuss (in the case of clothes, I reccomend The Gimp; a free verson of Photoshop program).

I would suggest then that the OP is correct, CopyBot poses little, if any, commercial risk to those business people who are not providing a product that can be easily made from scratch by just about anyone without CopyBot.

Easily made from scratch? With a minimum of fuss? I don't know whether to weep or to laugh at this misconception, but I surely wish making (non-scripted) stuff was as easy as you seem to believe.

It is.

I do it.

Scripting is what separates the men from the boys.

It's an interesting observation but I've found the opposite to be true.

There's a lot of things you can do with scripts - but there's a relatively limited number of scripts that have the potential to be interesting to large numbers of users, ie, a basis for business. Within them, the details of the particular script implementations don't really matter so much. This means that competition for those scripts is intense and is ended either by undercutting (as the original poster mentioned) or by network effect.

You can already see this in markets for scripted items. Scanners, one of the most popular scripted items, are down to something like L$50? 18 cents? Timeless Prototype has been working on the Multi Gadget for years, but what does he get for it? L$250 - less than a dollar each. And way back in the mists of time, you could only teleport to particular locations in SL (Telehubs) and had to fly from there to your final destinations. One of the most advanced scripts avaliable at that time was a "hyper teleporter" which automatically flew your avatar across the map to where you wanted to go at a huge speed, saving the use of telehubs. This required weeks of work and incredibly advanced scripting to capture a map of SL, design a routing algorithm, make it work without breaking the client due to moving too fast, etc. Can you hazard a guess, how much the market price for a hyperteleporter was at the time? Do I hear a couple of thousand? Nope. Zero. Compared to the L$3000+ you can get for a single skin (and yes, I know that skinning is a lot of work), that's pretty harsh.

The other side are the scripted items that are held in place by trust and network effect ("network effect" - the marketing phenomenon where a product becomes better the more people use it; otherwise known as "you can't beat Windows because everyone uses it; everyone uses it because no-one's beaten it". Casino games and vendors are a good example of this ("any object that asks for debit permission might clean out your L$ account - better just stick to the big brands". For network effect, I can think of two examples straight up: scripted collars and magic wands, both of which are now dominated by single individuals. Of course, I'm not really one to complain about this - any sensible scripter will be designing items to benefit from network effect, and I'm no different.

In fact, prim/texture items seem to be a lot safer from this - there's always artistic variations between them so unless someone deliberately sets out to copy you, there'll be some value in both version of the same thing. Of course, the OP has a lot more experience of SL than I do and it's entirely possible that if content creators continue joining at such a fast speed, then this "different styles" phenomenon will be overwhelmed, but chances are that scripts would have been overwhelmed far before that too.

(Oh, and it really isn't true that clothes and prims can be made "without fuss". Some people just don't have the artistic talent required to make things look good in that way. I know I don't, for instance.)

Hiro, great post. I agree with almost everything you've said here. I do have to take issue though with one thing:



I will agree that scripts are an important factor, but I can't agree that they are THE differentiating factor. Even ignoring for a second the fact that the most commonly traded items in SL are clothing and other avatar parts, which cannot be scripted in the first place, there are a great many unscripted products that "stand out". Starax's sculptures, for example, have always been widely recognized as highly desirable and unique items while at the same time being completely unscripted and usually even untextured.

It almost seems like you're contradicting yourself when you say copybot doesn't matter, but then you cite your main reason why it doesn't matter to be that it can't copy certain things (in this case, scripts). I'd much rather see a discussion of why copying ANYTHING doesn't really matter in the long run.

In RL, you can get a "Rolex" for $50 on practically any street corner in the world. The knockoff industry always has and always will exist. That in no way has ever dissuaded anyone who wants a real Rolex from paying the thousands of dollars it takes to get one. People always have been and always will be willing to pay for the knowledge that they're getting the genuine article.

Now, one might argue that there are quality differences between a fake Rolex and a real one, so it's not quite a fair analogy for digital copies. Well, in some cases that might be true, but there are certainly knockoffs that exist that are more or less indistinguishable from the real thing.

In any case, maybe a different example would be more fitting. I have a really nice, very expensive, soft leather briefcase which I normally carry around (no, not the crappy one you just saw me carrying in SF; I just brought that one because it's lighter weight, and I knew I'd be walking a lot more than I'm used to on that trip). I also have several pleather briefcases which I've accumulated over the years, some of which look just as nice as my genuine leather one (pleather can be pretty frickin' convincing these days), and are arguably every bit as durable, if not more.

So, why was I willing to pay several hundred dollars more for the real leather one? Because it's real, no other reason.

Can other people tell the difference? Probably not, but I know which is which. Even though visually, they're identical, I'd rather carry the real one than the fake one, and I was happy to pay for the difference.

The answer to copybot in SL is the same as the answer to knockoffs, fake materials, and other "copies" in RL. It's a cultural answer, not a technical one. People are willing to pay for what they know to be the real thing as long as they're part of a culture that appreciates genuineness.

Will there always be those who'd rather steal or who'd rather buy a cheap copy? Sure there will, but with the proper cultural morays in place, the vast majority will always rather have the real thing than an "inferior" copy.

Technically, the two items might be the same in every detail, but socially and culturally, the original is far superior to and more desirable than the copy.

So, the best thing we can all do to defeat copybot, and the inevitable thousands of duplication methods that will follow it, is to help ensure that the culture of SL remains what it has always been, a culture that values its creative people and supports its creative labor. As long as that social value system is in place, no one's business will ever suffer from copycats in SL, RL, or any other L you can think of.

There's an old saying, "When morays are insufficient, laws are unenforceable; when morays are sufficient, laws are unnecessary." I think the fact that all our businesses are still doing just as well post copybot as they did before is proof that SL's morays are in the right place. As long as we all work to keep it that way, we've got nothing to fear.

I agree. The community will do a very good job of exposing and isolating anyone who uses Copybot to copy other people's goods. Though that won't do much to help an individual who's had their goods ripped off and set out as freebies, for instance, it is still a very good and solid deterrant to anyone even trying.

But I would go farther than you do, and say there really isn't any need to panic and figure one has to go to work for development companies, or start doing only custom work (which by the way, can be ripped off, too).

I think the ability for people to work for themselves in SL without worrying too much about Copybot is still about 98% of what it once was.

I don't think the situation looks quite as grim as you painted it in your first four paragraphs, either, since most people in SL aren't the workaholics some of us are.

The percentage of those who make things to sell will stay a small proportion of the population even as the population explodes, and in fact will probably become smaller, I think.

coco

Hiro, to some extent you are right, but it also depends a lot on what you make.

I can see the bottom dropping out of the jewelry market pretty fast. Scripts won't do much to enhance a ring, a bracelet or a necklace, and 99% of the effort in making good jewlery is in the carefilly crafted and tortured prims and textures. So for a SL Jewler, CopyBot is like someone potentially flooding the market with free to cheap symthetic gems that are just as good as the real diamonds, etc... It doesn't take someone making a lot of money off your creation. All it takes is someone making a full-perms copy of your item into a widely-spread freebie, and your L$500 diamond ring that you spent all week designing and texturing is now worthless.

Clothing is actually not threatened by CopyBot. I've had friends check on this, and the textures for clothes that it rips off are only temporary, are not transferrable, and are the "baked composites" anyway. They can't be used to make the individual clothing items for resale.

There's only just so much you can do to differentiate a house via scripting. Door and window scripts? Commonly available. Chimney smoke? Easy to make for free. Lighting systems? Maybe. Not much else to script in a house, aside from furnishings, is there?

Custom work? Yes, there are a FEW jobs out there, for talented builders who have already made a name for themselves. But the average Player won't pay real-world development wages for a custom house, when they can get a common pre-fab for pennies. And as you should be fully aware, the only way most SL merchants can manage to get anything rational for the hours of effort it requires to make a new product is to sell hundreds of that product, at a price people are willing to pay.

I'm bidding on more custom jobs myself lately, and the person getting the bid often gets sticker shock looking at the prices. Even then, what I charge is far less for my time than an hourly minimum wage job would pay.

I'm also starting to make more scripted items and accessories. I don't know how well they will sell yet. We'll have to see.

Over two million residents does mean that there will be a lot of builders making similar things. But it also means there are a lot of consumers BUYING those products. There are lots of people who sell bed sheets in the RL world, without much differentiation between their products. Yet they still manage to stay in business and make profits, simply because so many potential customers exist.

I think your statement over-simplifies the market for scripted things. Successful scripts that come to mind:

Currently...

* Lucky Chair
* MobVendor
* Scripted beds (cannot remember the brand name)

On going....

* Security systems
* Vendors (networked, standalone, holo vendors)

Recent Past....

* Sheilds
* Weapons and countermeasures
* Temp-on-rez rezzers (well known tag line: Break through prim limits!)
* Rez Foo & Rez Faux - large item rezzers
* Building helpers (Skidz Primz...tagline -If you were using Skidz Primz, you'd be done by now!)

I bet the people that create these things based their business off of them.

Despite knock-offs being available, there are brands that people simply trust or know more than others; as a result, there is strong brand-affinity in these and other areas.

Posts about market doom and gloom ignore content creators' innovativeness.

I think posts like the ones that started this thread serve more to help us extract more from the current economy through constructive discussion rather than predict the economy's demise.

Well, yes, there are always a few new ideas that can make it through. But this still means that a scripter has to come up with a completely original, functional idea, and one that has a viable business model associated with it - before they can even start the work of actually writing the script and making the item. On the other hand an artist can simply decide to draw a red dress and start work on the drawing, and unless they are making an active effort to copy someone else's dress, their own natural unique style will come into play and differentiate their product for them. Even I've had this happen when building a house as a building challenge, and I'm no good at art at all.

With the ideas you mentioned, Lucky Chairs have already started being Open Sourced. Vendors are generally dominated by a few brands, JEVN being the most obvious. Rez Foo/Rez Faux, and Skidz Primz already dominate those markets (although Prim Docker I think is there also, as a building aids). Now, maybe these big brands can be displaced, maybe they can't, but the point is, you don't get this effect in the clothing market. You don't get one person making (for example) a wedding gown and then suddenly no-one else who makes a gown can get any attention paid to it at all unless they work like mad on publicity. The clothing market distributes trade far more freely. You can see reasons for this - for example, everyone likes to browse when buying clothes, but that isn't really so possible with scripted items except for the most general types of scripted items such as weapons. But I've never seen a mall where door scripts or building aids or vendor systems were browsable!



It's not the economy's demise at all. The function of a capitalist economy is to maximise efficiency and increase value. In Second Life though, the maximum efficiency is when every content creation company has a shop on a 512 full to the brim with vendors selling hundreds of items for L$1 each. It's probably not what most people would look forward to from their businesses, but it is the most efficient model.

There are a lot of mediocre scripts out there; just like there are a lot of mediocre prim items and clothing. Quality will out in either case.

Well, I find that writing good scripts is easy -- since I've been doing real-time programming professionally for nearly 30 years now. And LSL makes it a lot easier than it normally is, since events and states are language primitives rather than things you have to implement yourself.

I can't imagine how to begin to make many of the objects I've seen.

Just like RL, it takes all kinds.

In any case, though, I agree with the main point of the first post, which is that while Copybot is a threat, it's not as big a threat (or opportunity) as the amazing growth SL has experienced -- if it keeps up and if it's real growth rather than just folks who play for a couple days and never come back.

It's a threat to folks who do stuff that anyone can do, as well as easily imitated ideas. It's an opportunity for folks who can continue coming up with new ideas or those who have ideas that are difficult to imitate. In other words, originality is the ultimate commodity here in SL. And that's one of the great things about it!

I do have to say that an object builder = amish....and noone buys unfinished furniture in SL.


You have to spice it up. Script it and/or texture it. Maybe throw in an animation or two and there you go. Infact I used to work with a partner before they had to leave SL. They all the animations and built the intial items. I have since made other items without any real textures, scripts, or animations. I just use shiny and object oriented options. The things my partner made still sell and the things I made have met medium success. It's also the reason I haven't built much latly. I am having to turn around and try a crack at scripting, texuring, and animation making.

So pretty much I spend alot of my time just walking around now thinking how to take what is out there and making it better. Infact often I will evaluate and test stuff for friends just to nail out the kinks.

When copy bot came out I rolled my eyes and shrugged. Mostly cause by now most of the stuff we made has been redone and improved upon or twisted slightly by others (at least these shops never had them before we did.) On the other hand seeing them I am happy to applaud and cheer for most cause they are different, well done, and touch an area I didn't get time to work on.

Actually there are many more ways to differentiate a house via scripting - just need to understand your customers and anticipate what they want.

Someone else in this thread said that originality is the real commodity here in SL -- who would have thought that a chair that gives out prizes could be the basis of sub-culture or sorts in SL?

It's easy to say something has reached its peak in terms of opportunities to innovate - leaving those that that disagree with that statement with an open market.

A little off topic -- Ceera, I really enjoy reading your comments...very well thought out and instightful.

This is true for anyone...some just implement it differently. If it looks like an artist just starts to work on a dress, drawing, or sculpture and simply creates - that is simply an illusion, just like the work of art itself. It takes months, years, perhaps decades to get to a point where one can appear to just start working. Even then, a lot of thought probably went into the creation - even if just casual thoughts based on observations.

What I'm referring to is the essence of creation - that essence is the hard part...expression, marketing, managing, etc are all 'accidential' so to speak, and trivial -- they cannot exist of the essence of the creation is absent.



You have captured the essence of making a house and easily express that. You still have to think about it. You may think about it for a *very* short time, but you cannot 'just start building'.



Brand affinity is social and can be manipulated by the creator, users, or others. There are many people that simply won't consider other brands or creators. The effect may not be as visible, but it is certainly present.



Union-micro comes to mind (I am not affiliated with them in any way). Visit their store and browse the gallery of scripts.



I see where you are going with this, but I disagree with they way you've framed it. SL has demonstrated time and time again that the rules here are very different...only the market will determine when it reaches peak efficiency (assuming that is the goal in the first place -- that's the part I disagree with).

Now that sounds just plain arrogant! I won't put out a product until i feel it's quality.
I spent two days on and off just getting the curvature right on a lamp and just as long
matching up prims for boot lasts. I'm not a slow builder, juse meticulous. Until you can wow the masses with a textured inventory as high in quality and detail as say a June Dion, Aleri Darkes, or Ginny Talamasc you should really stop tooting your own horn.

"Thant's really what separates the men from boys!"

Forget them, Jackal. Ignorant stupid twits, I'm tired of them. And they are probably lousy scripters, as well.

If it's so easy I guess that is why shoes of the quality Jackal makes are flooding the grid to the point of being worthless, eh? And clothing like Pixel Dolls or Dazzle are a dime a dozen. Or whatever. Why do I bother responding to this crap?

For the record I'm a builder nothing more. ^_^ It takes me weeks to make a script cause if I do. I go postal on my computer. Throwing it out the window, down the block, use a sledgehammer, throw it over the roof. I just am satting building does seem to depend on some sort of secondary 90% of the time to make it look "better then the rest".

Otherwise we'd all get owned by high tech amish.

I've heard the same stuff, Io. That 'prim and texture businesses' are just "piles of prims and a couple of jpegs" that takes "10 minutes to slap together" ...

There -is- an attitude that scripting is the only "real" skill... (not that I don't script my stuff heavily. Oh, I do.)

But there is a perceived notion that because scripting is a bit more obscure, it's the only real "tough" thing, - its "wizardry" so it's a thing of value...

As for brand loyalty goes, I think that's a weak defense. Strong brands exist in SL. That isn't the issue though. Newbies don't know the brands. They're not going to know the brand -- because they're new. And they probably don't care who the *actual* creator was.

Copybot can't steal scripts now, but I like how in one breath they tell us "worthless piles of prims" builders that we should "just face the music because it was always inevitable" -- but at the same time trumpet their own worth because scripts currently *can't* be stolen.

A while back, when there was an exploit that -did- allow scripts to be stolen, some of these folks were pretty loud about the issue. And if such an exploit ever did come up, you can probably bet they won't take their medicine quite as silently as they're asking us to do.

Saying that copybot has "no effect" (it's been said a lot lately. And I have a feeling even as the 'effects' come in, it'll still be trumpeted) - is a factual lie at this point. It all serves as this justification that "because it can be done, it should be done, and because it can be done, it should be sanctioned, and should not be curtailed."

Simple analogy -- Most cars can do 80-90mph at least, but we still have speed limits. Even though you really can't *stop* people from going that fast, it's regulated.

Can copybot be stopped? Ultimately, not completely. (Can it be made harder to use? Yeah, absolutely.) -- but, can front doors be made impermeable? No. Does that mean we should just have big open holes in our houses? No, I don't think so.

Copybot did *not* answer the question of "can or can't". It answered the question of "will or won't". The possibility was never argued. I think a lot of us just never thought it'd come to the point where it was "sanctioned".

Also, people rely way too heavily on the "will this net me less money" aspect. When a song is ripped off in RL, people still pretty much know who wrote it. When an object is ripped off in SL, it's pretty easy for the ripper to pose as the creator and take all credit for the thing. I dont believe the 'community pressure' is that strong yet. Nobody in SL is so big that their work is ubiquitously recognized. And with the influx of new users, any brands that were recognizable are rather diluted. Proportionally, probably a smaller fraction of people in SL even know what Pixel Dolls is, compared to this time last year.

The arguments I want to put aside are:

1) "because it can't be stopped, it's allright to do."

-- If you want to live in total anarchy, yes. Anarchy historically doesn't work too well. The notion of no self control and the idea of putting norms and stops to the concept "I will do it because I can" and "I will take it because I want it" is what lead to the development of governments and order.

Ask yourself the simple question: "Will this hurt someone." If the answer is yes, you shouldn't do it. If the answer is truly no (meaning: nobody will be hurt by this -- not 'someone oughtn't feel offended by this' -- that second one is a 'yes' in disguise) -- then you shouldn't do it.

Copying something for your own use may or may not hurt someone. It very well may not. Maybe you wouldn't have ever bought it, maybe you would. This might be ok.

However, copying something someone else put a lot of work into and either reselling it or 'liberating' it (widespread free open perms distribution) likely *will* hurt someone. Whether that's in terms of money, pride, dilution of accreditation or disappointment -- pick your poison, they're all damaging. In any case, you're making the decision -for- someone else. Leave that decision up to them. If they want to keep their works closed and controlled, feel free to speak out against them or not do business with them. But it's not your right to make an irreversable decision for them. Even if you do think you're better than them.

2) "what you guys do is easy, what we do is hard."

-- By making this statement, people are making a value statement. They're basically saying that scripting is of a higher value than prim/texture work. (And at its most base: that mechanations, utilities, and tools are of a higher value than art. This has been an argument that's been going on for ages, and isn't going to be solved in SL.) Nonetheless, there are people who put hours of time and dedication into either or both. An object or a script may not be worth much to you. That doesn't give any individual the right to actually alter its value or realize damages to it.

You may think that clothiers have it easy, and that the work you do is harder. You may feel that their income is ill-begotten. Go ahead and speak that. It's your right. It isn't your right to then move forward and destroy their business, or even their hobby, based on your opinions of value.

3) "If you can't get by on customer loyalty, then it wasn't worth anything to begin with."

-- Obfuscation and dilution through growth totally destroys this argument. If Bob makes the best skateboards around, and everyone in SL as of 12/08 knows that Bob's Boards are some of the best on the grid (and he has the best customer service) -- the 5000, or 10000 users that enter SL on 12/09 and see "Bob's Boards" and "Ben's Boards" (ben's being a rip of Bob's, but L$100 cheaper) -- they don't have any way to differentiate besides word of mouth that they may or (probably) may not receive. The brand gets diluted as new users come in, and they probably don't want to hear about politics or copying. They just want the damn thing cheaper. Even though Bob put in all the work, and Ben just copied them.

In closing I guess I'd want to say that just because you personally haven't heard or seen any businesses being damaged (or creators just being hurt through pride) via copybot doesn't mean it hasn't happened. There's been a pretty successful anti-sentiment towards those who even suggest that it's an issue whatsoever. A lot of folks are tired of hearing about it. Others may just want to lay low. Yet more still just may not be in your circle of communications. LL is not about to post on the blog how many people have been burned by copybot.

The damage from this is going to be slow and quiet. The market will become homogenized slowly, and we'll see less and less "sl and only in sl" success stories. Outside companies creating items will likely still be successful. But eventually the home-grown brand in SL will just fall into the public domain, and production will decrease. Not just because of cash flow, but because of the notion that nothing you do will be yours or even really attributed to you anymore. Of course it's a doomsday scenario, I realize that. But for those of you who believe that -this- was "inevitable", wouldn't you agree that expanding the scenario to its endgame is inevitable too?

It isn't a matter of technology. It's a matter of social acceptance. And through the politics involved, it was pretty much sanctioned. The TOS violation announcement was a pacifier - I'd be very surprised if Linden was even intending to A group of people declared that they were willing to disrespect the value of a certain type of creation because they believed that it held no value.

Or, more likely, a bunch of people wanted some notoriety by causing an upset.

As "unverifiable" as some of the logs that have been floating around may be, it showed this intent and disdain pretty clearly. Coders do not like artists. Free-society advocates do not like artistans or tradesmen. Not that the two can't operate together -- they can. But it's the politics and social climate that caused this to be an issue.

Unfortunately I doubt the two camps will ever see eye to eye. And I will admit that one (the hackers and scripters) *are* more powerful in this world, than the other (the builders and artists.) You'd hope that'd be something that would be tempered with responsibility, accountability, and respect.

But the lack of those three things are at the very core of why Copybot is a problem at all. The climate from which it was born. We'd hope that the SL community *and* administration would shun actions that damage other residents. But that's not the path we're on right now, and to me, that's rather unnerving.

At this point, I don't see copybot destroying any businesses but the cat is out of the bag and given the way SL is coded and LL's response, it's only a matter of time before something like this comes back. And if scripters think they are safe they have their heads in the sand. It may be excuted server side but that script is sitting there as a text file in an object and can be gotten to.

What annoys me is this (baseless) superior attitude some have. They learn to call a function and you would think they hacked the fricken' Pentagon. The majority of scripting in SL is simple and recycled. Just like the majority of builds, clothing or anything else is mediocre. Gifted scripters are the minority, just like gifted builders or texture designers are.

No, maturity is.

Case in point.