SL Expansion, Is the End Near?

Despite all the frustrations of SL, I honestly think that anyone else thinking they can fire up some new world with all the same features and support the same level of users might get a harsh wakeup when they go beyond simulated tests.

The real problem will be competitors who don't even bother- who needs user created content? Only a tiny percentage of us make things, the rest would probably be happier buying their ocean view condo and whatnot from a catalogue from Mother Developer. The curious and quaint are great, and what I love most of all about SL, but I think a *lot* of people just want to hang out and hook up. And they'll up-sticks to the managed resort instead of slumming it in the shanty town, no matter how ethnic it is.

For my money, the core problem isn't about more land/server space, or class 6 sims... the biggest problem with SL atm has got to be the core assest servers straining under the influx of people. If that peaks at say 35-40,000 people, having yet more space, will mean only a thinner distribution of the people able to log in.

Ask yourselves, what happens to SL then? More land equals greater empty spaces that are simply generating more income for LL as the teir isnt linked to people loggin in or are active.. so the real danger has to be a implosion of the economy. Land may.. become cheaper, but the tier remains constant. In desperation to maintain that revenue to support the liability of running servers/sim that no one wants to buy, will cause more and more business's to fail and a shrinking back of the land mass available.

One possible plan that LL may impliment, would be the mandatory application of kicking non-premium accounts, to allow premium account onto the grid, thereby forcing yet another revenue stream as lots of people clamber to sign up and part with their monthly dues. This brings into question their existing and long time standing policy of offering millions of 'free' accounts. This must bring into question their business model which although changed over the years, actually going in completely the wrong direction! When I joinned up in SL, it was under the then offered 'Life Time Membership' deal, although withdrawn soon after for the free account status. With the current status of some countries not supporting clear methods of giving its population compliant accreditation that is acceptable to LL for verification, LL have to seriously unblock this jam, before implimenting any other form of restriction, otherwise this will be seen by many, as discrimination.

What exactly does being a premium account holder give you? Only the ability to purchase directly, LL owned land. Yet the third party companies thriving in the SL economy could again suffer if people were to be forced to hold that status and find themselves with that option, should LL land become cheaper due to loss of profits and potential collapse of those third party companies, result in only a high proportion of land being now owned by LL. The whole thing becomes full circle. The loosers will certainly not be LL.

My take is like this, I am fairly new to SL and totally love it. I wish I had found out about it years ago... Now my situation is that I have 2 small parcels of land, on waterfront and one roadside both on the mainland which I picked up for around 18L/m. I'm paying 15 bucks a month to up keep the land. Lately I have been asking myself what I am doing here and why?

Pros and cons from a non-noob.
(I think I can be considered a non-noob now... hehe. I spend more time answering people's silly questions inworld that asking them, like "how can I buy land?" )

I don't feel like the time,money and hairpulling I have been going through is a waste at all. At times it has indeed seemed pointless wandering around this 'ghost town' as some have put it especially living in europe with time diff. Other days i can't fight for time to build and develop content with all the people dropping in ("Hello I'm lost would you like a shot of tequila?" so I find it's very unpredicatable when and where the people will show up.

Wheteher SL is on the brink (which I can't believe) or not there are a few bottom lines that cannot be ignored:

-Virtual land does have value!!!

-The SL world lacks content overall (no dis to great builders and locations out there)

-The SL world lacks people overall

-There will always be a steady flow of new people, we have millions to go before reaching WOW levels.

-Linden Labs although not a perfect company, technically and architecturally has an interactive role in the ongoing development in thier product (try taking any complaint to EA sports saying I bought fifa 2006, now can I please have the upgrade to fifa2007 free?).

-Compare your investment in SL to purchasing an off the shelf PC game, 70-80 euros buys a decent parcel with a few month's tier. WOW charges monthly.

-Compare your investment in SL to registering and hosting a web site, roughly 100 bucks per year -- for low end shared hosting servers. The feel I'm getting around SL is like back before the internet bubble, domain names were being speculated on my some smart and now rich folks. The average public thought it was ludicrous to pay for an internet domain name. Or Like the in boom of the fiber optics industries where nortel put billions into thier networks which then sat around for 5 years with no content, the lines are hopping now and the optics companies are starting to rake it in people want to download dvd etc. Now look, it reminds me of the mainland (old continents) real estate. Everyone is speculating, not many are building... it will come.

-SL is not going away, even if the competitors do manage to create something similar it will probably be so similar as to almost be indentical to SL from a user's POV. Building, texturing, scripting as skills will be transferable.

-If the architecture were to change drastically I could envision Linden Labs scaling all existing land up to a new environment. Main grid land will always be at a premium. Any game that allows people to host servers results in a very clique-y and exclusionist community surrounding the game, think battlefield 1942 or unreal tournament. New users don't stand a chance of finding a decent server to startup in.

-in terms of the 40k max users I think anyway Linden labs can push that hurdle they must do it. It should be the #1 priority whether it involves new architecture, hardware they should and will do it. At 100k users logged in alot the of the complaints about land pricing and lack of things to do would dissapear.

my 2 bits

Hmm if renting a quarter of a sim then a person renting it out to him has to pay at least $75 in tier for that share of the estate so I'm interested to know how an island owner could rent this land at less than $75 per month, pay off his original outlay of $1800US and make a profit, from the figures I've seen crunching rental figures through Excel they will charge you $50US to $150US PER WEEK. All you save is the initial outlay which is peanuts over a 12 month period.

If someone is truggling to pay $75 per month to LL then they aren't going to do any better paying $75 to a Landlord for land they only rent. So I gues it depends on if you are here for a year or unsure how long.

Kicking no premiums, like it or not isn't a good idea either, we need the free users for the player base numbers really, what they need to do is make some advantages to bein premium to draw a percentage back.

And virtual land may have value now but one day that server will be switched off and stop spinning, where is the resale value for the last owner then? And SL is 4 years old now, do we think it's going to keep leading for 10-20 years?

For many people who are here 'long term', land prices are still prohibitive for many, especially those who do not have 'commercial interests' in mind.

There has to be something done, and done soon, to help those who are here to build, interact and have fun get land at a reasonable price because I'm quite sure that's why there is such a high dropout rate after a few weeks of new players - they simply can't afford to be here and do what they want.

Broccoli

No one can dispute your business luck and acumen, Desmond You've built up a very lovely vision.

My personal thought is that LL is preparing for the future. Maybe they are putting the horse before the cart. Just maybe they're ramping up so that once the infrastructure is stable, can sustain many more avatars, etc. there will be places for them to go, things to do and see, and land to buy off the Barons who are willing to take a chance and sit tight (and lose money in the short term).

I feel that SL is about communities, and the best places in SL are interactive, have charm, beauty and uniqueness. They are appealing. Every day I encounter someone's vision that strikes me as being absolutely fantastic.

This is the tip of the ice berg, and while rocky roads are ahead, at least there is a road and LL is working on getting us there

What we need are more roads .. with speed bumps at the sim edges ... and signs saying things like "You are leaving Ahern, thankyou for driving safely". I'm serious!!

But something this thread stirred up in me is, if and it's a big, negative, morbid if .. just if the bubble burst and for whatever reason people started leaving SL with the resultant glut of land vacant/abandoned resulting in fewer and fewer people paying tier in each sim, would LL be more likely to induce/force land owners to transfer to selected sims for rationalising .. or would they simply pull the entire plug?

No, sorry, don't want an answer really. Just a horrible thought while the grid's down

Now now, bilbo...It's just because of the downtime, they make me have horrible thoughts too *pats the hobbit on the head*....and LL would probably use the first option you mentioned.

Mandy C

Just remember that non US resident percentages are climbing Clearly there is something afoot, be it articles in European papers, or others discovering SL for the first time and infecting their friends with "the new crack". It IS growing. And it's good people who will make it continue. The worst thing WE can do is give up. I've no intention of doing so.

<nuzzles into Mandys chest, sucking thumb> .. I'm frighted

That's not entirely accurate. Yes, I can rent that much land on an island. But easily? Depends on how old the island is doesn't it? If it's an older, grandfathered island, then 1/4 of the monthly tier is $50. OK, in that case I could be able to find 1/4 sim for $75 a month.

If it's a newer island, then 1/4 of the monthly tier is .... $75! So obviously I'd have to pay more than $75 so the island owner can see a profit.

Then there's the move-in fee. Many estate owners humorously list this as "buying" the land, but really, it's a move-in fee and a non-refundable security deposit. At the very BEST price I've seen, and I have looked into this, the move-in is half to two-thirds the price of the same size mainland land that would satisfy me.

Now add the covenant ... or rather the rental agreement contract. What you can and cannot do. Me? My family and I live as Drow in a huge treehouse surrounded by a foresty area with Linden and prims trees all over. Then toss in the sort of Elven magic sparklies, walkways, gardens and whatnot you would expect in a sort of eldritch landscape. With the obligatory dock and sailboats with waves and all that having a good waterfront property entails.

All that adds up to something that is well outside most rental agreements I've seen.

So .. one half to two-thirds move-in fee, at least as much if not more monthly tier fees and the likelihood that we couldn't build the kind of place we want to live in coupled with the whims of the island owner who faces the same future I'd face land-wise you mentioned, and what really is the benefit to me to go renting island space?

The only one that comes to mind is that my immediate neighbors would be under the same restrictions, and thereby the same danger of eviction, that I would be in.

I'd rather pay one-third to one-half more for the purchase fee to have land of my own on the mainland and be secure in the knowledge that owning 1/4 of a sim would mean that if anyone ticked me off enough to ban them, the plot is large enough that they really wouldn't be able to bother me that much if my treehouse is in the center of the plot.