Price of the new continent is going thru the ROOF!!!

Ged, I'm definitely in the 'want a whole sim' group rather than the land broker group. If I have to do a bit of wheeling and dealing to get there so be it. I'm not really a business type so it could go badly wrong for me at any point.

Afaik all new sims, mainland and island, are Class-5.

Yes, you're right about the 18-month slide to 'break-even'. Then again I've been in SL almost 2 years and will most likely still be around when LL switches off the last servers. Timescale isn't a big deal for me though sooner would be nicer than later.

Good point Fade.

I do not think there is any secret profit agenda going on such as has been suggested
or some kind of attempt to max out prices per unit on LL's part that is.

Indeed assuming that the current high price levels are due to increased demand then
a sustained time period of high prices will effect the demand by slowing down new user
sign ups.

I tend to think that LL is more interested in a broader potential profit base (i.e. more users)
than trying to get the most money from each auction.

I have been watching the land market a lot more closely than my usual over the last month or so.

The day they released 40 sims in one day had a definite effect on prices.
Then the pace of sim release slowed and prices stabilized slightly and even rose back up.

So even though the pace of new land released has increased especially compared to old norms, the supply of the new land has not been sufficient to decrease prices significantly.

Now this can be attributed to various factors, apparent price norms can be established by
a few big players and followed by the smaller sellers. The use of the land buying software
has been suggested as a factor in this affect.

When I started in SL last April a 512 sold for around 3500 L believe it or not.
Somewhere under 15 usd seems a lot more reasonable for new users to try out the idea
of virtual land than just under 40 usd.

In my opinion SL will benefit more by increasing the attractiveness of the platform with lower land prices thereby preserving the level of new user sign ups.

This will make them money on a economy of scale basis. Current high land prices
benefits the virtual estate dealers more than it does LL.

Regarding the end of the first land program it was prob inevitable but it definitely could
have been handled better in a PR sense, as can be seen in the tone of the reactions.

But they could use it as an excuse to more forcefully bring down prices with an aggressive
release of new land which would not only be in LL's interest but a benefit to new and older
residents alike.

We are currently still in the high land price bubble. Looking around at older and newer lands it appears that there is a great deal of land for sale out there, yet the price does
not vary much.

Or if it does it is to the unrealistically high levels. As if the owner is not really interested in
selling unless it is at 10 or more times the current price levels.

A lot of the land I am seeing on the market is not moving very fast, or if it is it is merely
switching hands and remaining on the market at a slightly higher price.
Possibly this is due to the land buying software or and an influx of new land speculators.

The land market definitely needs a shake out if only to break the current arbitrarily high prices that continue to persist.

If land buying software is the cause of this price persistence, LL can simply release a vast enough quantity of land to find out if the prices are due to actual demand or more artificial means.

And in the process bring prices down to a more attractive level for the average user.

So especially in the aftermath of the reactions to the demise of the first land program,
I think it would be a very good thing for LL to come through with the effort of bringing land prices down in a big way.

So Fade your warning to auction buyers is a very valid one.

Irrational exuberance.

The resident answer to this one is: prices are gonna come down. Hard.

Because they have to.


Sure, SL is in the spotlight now, it's trendy, growth is explosive, starry-eyed noobs are spending like never before. But that's the point. This growth simply can't be maintained.

People at the highest levels at the Company have told us outright: being in the 'land business' doesn't make any sense. They have *warned* us that a crash is coming as the grid moves forward, and bluntly - they are right. History is against this market too - look at prices in all new tech, and the direction it goes. Down.

Of course, this is the long view. The land business may be partying like it's 1999 at the moment, but we are in a bubble. There was a time when Everquest was the big deal; there was a time when FidoNet was the bee's knees.

So when will it happen? I dunno. Could be years, could be this fall. But it's going to be interesting to see who will be holding the bag when it does.

I just hope the grid isn't *so* full of unsustainable land by then that when the boom times are over, the mainland isn't an ActiveWorlds-sized wasteland devoid of life.

Hey guys, you have to remember that Linden Labs is not some feel-good altruistic friend to all. This is a business, plain and simple. It might look like a game to us, but LL is a real world company, and they are in the business of making money. Nothing wrong with that. I expect them to be. They are accountable to their investors (which include the founders of Amazon.com and eBay), who invested in them because they could see the potentially huge payoff in the future. I think we get caught up in playing SL, and start to think of LL as some kindly father-figure who is going to make sure that everything is "fair" and that no one's feelings get hurt, and act as some all-knowing and all-powerful arbitrator of every single situation that occurs in-world. Not gonna happen, and I wouldn't expect it to. The money I "invest" in SL I consider to be my personal entertainment money, just like Internet access and cable television. Don't spend more than you can afford, and don't expect that you are going to make substantial money "investing." The true investors have given big bucks directly to LL. We are just players of the game.

I do, however, think the whole First Land thing is crappy, and that it could have been handled better.

FTW

Wow that really sucks.

You are REALLY over-estimating Second Life's attach rate.

I'm just very optimistic about SL's prospects.

The land barons who are bidding so high must be speculating that a lot of people were holding off for First Land, and now that it is discontinued there will be a spike in price as people buy en masse. They just may be right too Unless we get another surprise soon like at the beginning of this month...

Regardless, I find the land market and how it functions endlessly fascinating. I've dabbled in it a bit and have made some profit, but mostly just watching how it unfolds, and waiting for irrational crowd madness to kick in to drive prices absurdly low again. Then is the time to buy.

As a fairly recent (January) premium user - along with about a million others - I personally am now looking at alternatives to SL and Lindon Labs. Should land prices actually drop, I would probably stay. I honestly would be surprised, tho. If I leave, I WILL try to entice all my friends to join me whereever I land. I hope greedy land speculators get hurt BAD.

So much for creative expression in the wonderful Brave new world.

Just to be a stickler, as of the end of this January there were only 57,702 Premium subscribers, a number representing only 1.5% of today's 3.8 million residents. Source (see the Excel workbook linked in the post.)

This is exactly why I feel land prices are about to fall, as it's no longer lucrative/possible for land swoopers to create hundreds of single-use alts to buy First Land plots. Within a few days/weeks we're going to see a market at the mercy of residents who are legitimately looking to own land, and I feel it's going to be a much smaller number than most of our less-than-a-year-old would-be land barons expected.

people are reacting to the removal of first land I'm just hoping that people dont actualy BUY the sims at that price and go back to estate land until the prices fall again otherwise the market prices for land may have gone up yet again and stay that way for say oh 6+ months

Cloud, I'm so sorry that you and many others in your circumstances got messed around by the recent land-price bubble and now Linden Labs' decision to wind up the First Land program. I so hope that Wildefire's prediction is correct this time. The fires of speculation have burned uncontrollably all winter and at some point they must burn out. But when and at what cost to the genuine residents of Second Life?

Yeah, that.

Additionally, I would hazzard a guess that those currently buying sims interpret the dicontinuance of First Land to mean more buyers of higher priced land. But for the short term, disgruntled Premium acct non-land-owners buy NO land. DEcreased demand. Ever increasing supply. I missed out on econ classes, but even I can hazzard a guess what that will really mean in the long run.

As of this post time a new sim is at auction for US$3,606 which converts to AU$4,564.
I could never imagine spending this kind of money on virtual land, I would prefer a car.

No one go anywhere until a week or so has passed and we see where the chips fall, ok?

I remember few hours ago and 10 more hours to go for the end of the bulk of 8 sims and the price for the first sim was 4000 and for all the rest was above 3500.

Now, with only 1 and a half hour to go the highest is at 3000.

What happened? is this a reverse auction? Who changed the prices?

OK

I'm agreeing with several of you here. Despite dealing in land, I'll be playing it safe this week and only buying land which I can obtain genuine good deals on. I doubt land will go down... There's well over 4k islands now, a testament to SL residents insatiable land craving, however there really is no reason for it to go up. If a $10 Premium membership has you all worked up, I highly doubt you're the kind of person that would proceed to drop in excess of 3500usd on a mainland sim anyway.

Saw a blog thingy that the database numbers on the front page was off its possible the two are connected so we will find out how much they sold for when the land is put up for sale and we see the asking prices

That's very odd and quite inconvenient for anyone attempting to bid on those sims...

While this is a true statement - the $10-30/month people are hurt by a trickle down effect of rising land prices when those sims' parcels are chopped up and sold off.

As someone who already develops land on islands, this is precisely the effect it's having on me. Why should I pay for what I deem overpriced land on mainland? Eventually I will just get my own island.

My guess is the use of accounts to mess with land prices by making take bids...
now we are seeing sims sold at the equivalent of L$9 per meter with an hour left! Quick, now is the time to buy a sim

Um, how do I get to the new continent? I don't see it on the map.

Actually i am planning to buy one of the new continent's sims. However, the price is just too high to fit my plan:

1. Renting half of the sim for L$512 per 512sqm. A person could only rent one of the 64 plots. This renting agreement lasts for 6 months. After 6 months the rentee could do whatever they want with the land.
2. Selling the other half to break even the auction cost.

So at the end no profit is made, and I don't mind about this. I just want to make sure the newcomers have a cheap first land to play with.

Unfortunately the price is not right at the moment. In order to break even I have to charge the other half about $L25 per sqm!!!

Please think about the poor, land baron

Zen