November & October stats out... wtf?

Where is that page? I can't find it.

coco

I'm reminded of Jack Linden's blog post saying the average mainland sale price is L$6.5 a meter when the BASE of mainland 512 meters or larger listed for sale is actually L$7.9 a meter. Does not compute.

But hey, there is no regulatory body or group of shareholders that is going to bust them for mistakes or mistruths when it comes to the numbers they post. Just us speculating on a little-read forum.

I wonder how many of the "active avatar" and "total hours" numbers are just campers or bots instead of real residents.

A friend of mine has developed a thing about buying waterside/paved-roadside land in the old continents. These are well-established places with character. Some have Linden road on one border *and* Linden water on another. Some are near landmark structures.
Back in the spring, such places were generally not available and horrendously expensive if they were. Now there appears to be a steady supply.
I suspect that the sellers are experiencing positive cash flow.

I'd love to be able to explore SL's transaction database.

This made me lawl.

*Meta just responded and clarified that the mainland supply is the amount of mainland owned by residents, not the number of whole sims, so the number is going to fluctuate.*

Wouldn't an true indication of trends in SL also be reflected by a monthly percentage of abandoned land? I also suspect the percentages of abandon islands would be surprising. I do know of one private island where the tenants are using it for free until its reclaimed by the Lindens.

To the math gurus out there who are enjoying this sort of thing:

There's a lot of us who would like to follow along, who can't digest the numbers you're tossing out. While I understand that charts can be manipulated, some kind of graphical representation of some of these trends would help the average user understand your observations. (and could be a big help to those of us who own businesses).

the [img]tag still works.

Well, the for sale list doesn't include land sold to friends for L$0. It also doesn't show (for long) the land set to L$1 for a friend to pick up which actually gets bought by a bot, then sold back to the original owner for L$1 by the bot operator (hopefully).

All of those will affect the average mainland sale price without appearing in the for sale list (or not staying there for long, at least). If by "average" Jack means "mean", the L$0 and L$1 transactions are so much lower than the market value of a 512 that it wouldn't take many of them to skew the mean mainland price considerably.

.... illustrating a difference between 'management by spreadsheet' and 'management by walking about'.

Here is the page for those who would like to look at the numbers in context -

http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy_stats.php


I agree with Sling on the difference between management by spreadsheet and managementby walking around. Number by themselves don't always tell the tale, but they are useful for identifying trends.....

It would be very interesting to track the price of open market sales vs. personal transfers. I *think* the two are currently conflated.

I am willing to bet that Linden Lab determines the selling price of land as the total amount of land which sold for > L$1 and divides that number by the number of L$ spent on that land. This would, of course, take into consideration all the private land deals as well as those people like me that swap land between my many groups for L$1.

I am also just hazarding a guess that land sales for L$0 do *not* count toward the aggregate land sales.

In my perfect SL world, you would have two buttons where we currently have the one "sell land" option. We would have a large "transfer land" button as well as "sell land". Transfer land should sell only to a specific person.

I think the transfer option should also be able to handle the transfer out of group of full tier needed for personal land ownership without bumping anyone up to a new tier level. I want Linden Lab to treat personal land ownership like it handles group land ownership. The tier already needs to be there for the transaction to complete. That way no one accidentally gets tiered up just from swapping their land out of group to personal ownership.

Oh, and I want to own a pony and a rainbow and, oh, I want Trout Recreant as my personal opera singin' Gor masseur. (Yeah, suck it. You are not a Belgian telegraph operator with his own biplane in *my* SL)

I will post my modified version of the Excel Spreadsheet in Google Documents. The problem is columns not lining up with rows and me not being terribly willing to do much manipulation for readability here.

I think it would be more fair to divide pmlf's by the number of avies that logged in in the last month...

Actually, I'm going to re-work the figures against the active users. I thought of that last night in the shower.

all of my good ideas occur to me in the shower. if it weren't for water conservation concerns, i'd be in the shower 24 hours a day.

The archive data for June 2006 to November 2006 is not showing the correct data for PMLF. I do have a good year's worth of data, though, so I will be putting that into the spreadsheet.

Okay, I have published the pertinent modified pages to show percentage growth over the previous month.



I have not yet done the comparison of growth of active residents. I downloaded the stats spreadsheets through March 07, but can't get anything beyond that. And no, it's not on archive.org Kitty

The active resident growth numbers versus the L supply and PMLF will be the most telling, I think, of the trends of business in SL.

Alas I have to agree with most of what you say (not because it's you saying it but because it's depressingly accurate).

There are still plenty of corporations here but I can't help but get the impression that the corporations don't quite understand what they're getting into. Sun and IBM very much understand it, but a lot of the others, they think it's the interweb and it's not. There's no HTML, there's no flash, you can't have the sort of funky features they get on their website and they reach only a very small fraction of the inworld audience.

If LL want corps, they need to encourage the corps to intergrate. I should see clothing companies in the malls in SL, I know some people don't like them, but that's where they should be, that's where they should be advertising, not on their own island with no classifieds to attract people.

Social networking, which is the big boom at the moment, is severely hampered by group and IM limits. It's easy to avoid these features in Second Life, but it's not so easy to embrace them. LL are in danger of losing out to inferior products because they are not concentrating on the basics.

Okay, I got the Active numbers as far back as June 07. March through May only showed percentages.

Here is PMLF as a percentage of active users, June through November:

8.39% 9.17% 7.60% 8.26% 8.78% 8.96%

Growth percentage of active users, July through November:

-2.53% 13.44% -3.80% 3.64% -2.94%

Active numbers pitched wildly up from July to August, tapered off in September, resumed levels in October, and went down in November. Considering that bot farming is on the rise, this is interesting.

More is telling when you look at the growth in terms of the amount of money taken in. I can't imagine that a single camper would make more than $50 a month, so the decline in November of those in the $10-$50 USD band is hopeful, that camping is down.

View stats at :
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=p0WeTDSkUSACitdfmCd3qMQ&hl=en

Interesting.

My only thought that most camping avies prolly make less than 10 dollars a month since the big payout casino spots are gone.

Don't ask me how I know this

Okay... I added another sheet that looks at the growth percentages across the key indicators.

It is from July to November 07, the only months for which I had a consistently solid set of data.

How wrong is it of me to have read this as "the price of open market slaves"?

Considering the rl equivalent of most SL pay, that's appropriate.

My brain is a little tired, but SL hasn't really jumped the shark... it's just treading water.

not always, I'll make a classified of something i built and pay a low price just to get it listed--50 - 200L. just throwing more fuel into the fire

http://taterunino.net/login-concurrency24.png

If logins are disabled long enough, and people log out in disgust cause they cant do anything useful, the number remaining online will approach the number of bots and long term campers.