Poll: Why has population been so stagnant?

That was a cool first post.

I'm no silicon head myself, but I am a little bit technical. I got caught up in the social side of SL and now I have so much responsibility there, I don't have time to learn how to make things. Well, except the basics that any landowner knows.

But you're absolutely right. Whether we're socialites or builders, SL is all about the DIY, and enjoying the DIY of others. For me it's the same happy vibe I get at a craft fair. I love seeing what people can make. And also, if you're at the craft fair you're chewing on a hot dog and meeting all your friends. I hope SL will always feel this way, or at least a good sized chunk of it.

No one can pre-package such a thing in a corporate way; the best you can do is host it, and let it happen.

Next time you post a poll, do your research first and figure out whether your suspicion about SL usage is correct.

The following indicators have shown pretty steady growth in 2007, as reported by LL:

unique residents
registration counts
total hours
premium residents

The only indicator that has NOT increased steadily is $L exchange on the Linden exchange. No doubt that's due to paypal and billing issues we've all read about here (or experienced), and the fact that there are other options.

It may be that the maximum online count hasn't been increasing steadily. I haven't collected data, but it seems to me that this figure tends to grow in spurts. I suspect it's because at a certain value the asset servers just can't keep up and people log off, and then an improvement increases scalability so the number gets higher before the least patient can stand it. The total hours value keeps growing, so people must look for better times to log in. Too bad it's not a number tracked by LL; it might be interesting to see. Regardless, it has grown dramatically in 2007, after what seemed to me like a long period of no noticeable growth in early 2007.

However, my "data" about the max online values I tend to see is not at all scientific. It's just a sense I have from looking at the number before logging on, and noting what the highest values I tend to see in a week happen to be. This kind of anecdotal data can be very misleading!

So, to the OP, I say:

A) You're incorrect: there is no stagnation, as documented in LL data at and related links (see the documents you can download, in the right margin).

B) If you disagree, please post facts that back up your assertion

OTHERWISE, this post is just a pissing contest without any actual piss.

Ah, but look at that spike in total user accounts and millions of square meters of land, but look at the remarkable DROP in climb speed of the user hours. Sure, it went up, but not as much as everything else.

"The number of hours spent in Second Life climbed 5 percent to 21,815,700, the lowest percentage increase since December, 2006. The 30-day and 60-day login figures have also been essentially flat for several months."

(Article: http://secondlife.reuters.com/stories/2007/07/10/second-life-population-slumps-in-june/ )

That's from Reuters, based on the same data you posted.

Or how about this article:

Second Life User Statistics
by Catherine Winters – March 13, 2007

"Are there 4.6 million regular Second Life users? Well, no. Immediately after that, the page goes on to indicate that only 1,629,589 users have logged into Second Life in the past 60 days."

(Article: http://www.socialsignal.com/blog/catherine-winters/second-life-user-statistics)

1.6 million logged in in 60 days back on March 13. SL economy statistics are showing 1,682,527 for TODAY. It's been 4 months and the we've gained 60,000 people logging in "in the last 60 days."

Ok great, but what about trends? What about 4 months before that? (for shits and giggles I've included January, which is in the middle, 2 months prior to March.)
Date...............Total Accounts.........Logged in last 60 days
22-Oct-06...........1,082,664...............446,153
1-Jan-07.............2,287,108...............844,317

(Data from here: http://www.tnl.net/blog/2007/01/05/running-the-numbers-on-second-life/ )

446,000 to 1.6 million to...1.6 million.

@ LearJeff...

Research??? Ummmmm... it’s called looking at the splash screen when SL loads. Obviously you didn't do your "research" in reading my post or you would have read that the focus of this poll is the logged in over past 60 days figure, which for reasons I already stated, I think is one of the more important numbers- especially when it has been stagnant or declining while total sign ups have continued to rise steadily. SL press tends to focus on numbers that show the population rising, but as Draco18s points out (as did I earlier), this is not likely the case. If it is increasing (and I doubt it has been) it certainly hasn't been by much lately... thus the choice of the word "stagnant", which can cover very small increases or very small decreases.

@ Others...

Wonderful posts. It has been fun to read everyone’s opinions on this topic.

OK, I stand corrected concerning the logins in last 60 days, and sorry for talking like such a jerk. My bad!

However, the growth in total user hours is still normal and within typcial levels of fluctuation. The best way to look at growth is using a logarithmic chart. Here's a log chart from Linden data on hours ingame.



This is a picture of amazingly stable exponential growth of nearly 3 orders of magnitude in just 4 years! Yes, there's a bit of a dip near the end, after a bit of a bump that proceeds it. The interesting thing will be to see whether the dip continues or normal SL growth recovers.

This kind of growth can't last long. If we keep this growth rate up for 9 years, then on average, every person on the planet will be spending 40 hours per week ingame.

If only my stock porfolio would grow like this!


Draco, concerning the $US dollars spent figures on one of your links: I'd like to know whether that represents $L spent ingame (where the same dollar can be spent any number of times and each counts as $1 spent) or $US pumped into the game from outside. The latter figure would be of more interest to me, but I can't imagine that SL residents average pumping $50/week into SL.

I never used those figures in my posts, but I would assume--based on which table you're refering to--that it would be the in-game spending as listed on the SL homepage, as if you'd READ the blog post that chart is with the author statest that he aquired his data Monday morning by going to the SL homepage and jotting down the numbers he saw into an Excel spreadsheet.

"Since October, I’ve been tabulating the numbers listed on their front page, once a week, on Mondays. From there, I ended up with the following spreadsheet:"

BTW, as per # hour spent, there is still a noticable decrease in the climb of the graph. Oh, hours are climbing, but not as fast as they were.

US$ spent is a fictional number: it's the number of L$ that changed hands divided by the exchange rate. If I hand you L$27k and you give it back, we each supposidly "spent" $100 US and the number increases by $200 US.

As for growth being stagnant: SL is fairly time-consuming, you can't really just log on for 30 minutes and get much out of it. It's also heavily biased towards English-speaking (to whatever extent) people. There also isn't quite that much to appeal to the average person, the web is about both entertainment and information but SL is only about entertainment and probably not that likely to entice people who play games.

Combine limited appeal with a semi-required English skill and the time required and bad marketing and you have a limited pool of people who'll sign up and stick around, SL is just running out of target audience.

If SL became Open Source I believe it would become more popular. The population will increase, the size of this virtual world will become increasingly large and faster!

/13/0f/199251/1.html

No it won't. As discussed in that thread most people will not have the resources to run a simulator at the level of speed and reliability that LL can for less money.

The noticeable decrease in the rise in hours ingame doesn't look significant yet. Noticeable, yes, but just like similar ones earlier in the graph -- which still shows remarkably steady growth.

If the current trend continues for 2 or 3 more months, then it will be significant.

Thanks for the clarification, Kitty.

I think one of the reasons is, that many newbies do not feel very encouraged to stay. It is simply too much, you have to do a lot to get into the game.

Also, some people I speak to wonder what use it is to sign up for a premium account, given that it has way less value now.

They killed the first land option, so that big advantage for a premium account is out. When I signed up for my premium, I got 1000linden , and then 400 a week.

I saw that now it is 1250, and 300 a week. Where is the advantage?

I also think that it is very hard for a newbie to find a place that is interesting for them to visit. Even the ones that can find search, like I did when I was new, are stuck, and wonder where the heck to go now. I mean, my first place was a club/casino, and I had no idea where I landed.

Only when I found the Matrix, and made some friends, I started to feel at home.

By that time I was 3 days further. If I had not been ill at the time, I would have given it the boot!

"Combine limited appeal with a semi-required English skill and the time required and bad marketing and you have a limited pool of people who'll sign up and stick around, SL is just running out of target audience."

Come again??????????????????? please don`t start talking about issues you have no real understanding for?.............Little do you know that the users on sl multi-alt users........many that are non-english speakers......... whatever you trying to express here again doesnt make much sence........

Thought this thread was done, but know that LL is hacking up the gambling machines with axes lets see what going to happen.

Alright, I'll share my own experience.

I had a tough time getting off orientation island. I got stuck because I thought I would get "magicked off the island" when I finished everything. I understood the GUI right off, but just went around trying to complete all four areas for three days. I couldn't understand that I should just search for something and TP to it.



There's another post saying newcomers shouldn't get a stipend, since we're not going to flinch if we put down $10 to get started.

But my experience has been more like Cocoanut Koala here. I haven't spent any money yet. I'm not a techno-genius. I like to write. So I love the internet and I've made great friends in SL. I'd really like to buy some land and set up a place for SL'ers to write "script stories," maybe just slide shows at first -- kind of like a blog where SL'ers could tell stories about their SL experiences -- and then advance from there (animations, 3D movies, who knows?). Not just a "here's a sandbox. Now go have fun!" but something much more structured.

But I'm not going to spend L$100,000 on a plot of land! The "real estate traders" who artificially inflate *all* the prices of land aren't helping. So I am holding off putting my $$ into SL because I don't feel *safe* yet. I don't know enough not to feel like I'm getting scammed.

In the mean time, like Cocoanut Koala, I'd love to have a little money to learn more with. But I understand that we can't go back to when it was that way. It just means I might never make my idea into virtual reality. Maybe one of you will do it, and let me know how it goes.



I don't think we need a welfare system in SL. I personally don't *want* welfare. I don't want LL to single out us poorest of users and dole out cash. That would kill creativity and create "lifetime welfare SL'ers". How sad.

Here's an example of one (not the only one) person who makes me feel unsafe dealing in SL real estate:



I've had my share of crashes and lagginess and gray textures etc. I've been yelled at ("DE DONDE ERES!!!!" -- thankfully no worse griefing than that!) and I suppose it would sting a little if I tried to buy things and got bilked or if I tried to get customer support and LL ignored me, but the only thing that has been holding me back is the negative newbie experience.

For me it's easy to see why the stagnation has occured. I have a few friends that have tried Second Life and usually the answer is roughly the same. "The ideas nice but nothing works very well"...................Take the inventory that always keeping opened folders open or the fact that you can buy a nice flash sports car and then spend time dissapearing into the roads! Or the nice plane that crashes at every sim boundary or gets returned due to the parcel being full. Maybe the hair that ends up firmly planted to your backside all to often. In short Linden Labs seem to have been unprepared for the monsoon that happened once Second Life got very popular and seem to have gotten themselves into a bit of a pickle.

Another problem that i hear from people that don't play here anymore is the fact that there seems to be almost zero support or help fromm the Lindens at all. I myself reported many many balls with racist comments left near the Bear Infohub but these were still to be seen several hours later still with their nasty message attatched!

For those of us that are die hard, it is appreciated that Linden Labs have a mamoth task to do to keep this place running but with hindsight wouldnt it have been better to cap off the nubers untill the infrastructure was in place to handle the weight? This may not have been harmful to the growth of second life since showing that there is no more room creates even more demand with people wanting to see what all the fuss is about.

To put it in a nutshell.......People want a product that works well and is easy to use........If it does not work well and is not easy to use they then want support........and from those people that I have asked who have now left........they got neither.

Logged in the last 60 days:
Aug-6: 1,629,849
Today (Sep-19): 1,363,009

USD spent in the last 24 hours:
Aug-6: $1,119,790
Today: $988,082

Growth?