Here we go again

I just don't get it. Who in the world keeps posting such large amount of Lindens. A week or so ago it was 2 million plus at 295. None of those sold. Everything went over it fomr 296 to 300. Today its over 2 million at 300. None of those will sell either. Mostl likely everything will go 301 to 305 the next week now. I would just like to tell this person to get real and think about what they are doing. the only thing they are doing is causing the market to get worse for sellers while NONE of their Lindens sell. If they are going to sell the most obvisuous answer would be to do it in smaller pieces, otherwise you'll be sitting on it for a long time.

you got it.
That's obviously the goal. Don't ask me why, i don't know

They probably moved them up in hopes that whoever is buying them at 301 would buy out the small seller and start buying into their lots. Also, while it would be nice for them to wait out the smaller sellers at 305-296 and let the market move down a little, there may be outside pressures (like paying tier for example) causing them to need to sell now rather than later.

Also on this subject. While everyone seems to be beating the drum about how bad the economy is and how terrible it will be, very few people have seem to realize that the linden has only adjusted about 20% since inception (with min being 250/US$ vs 300/US$). Considering that the economy is not very old, this is a minor correction. To put this in perspective, over the last few years, the dollar has adjusted itself over 40% against other world currencies and yet I do not see people jumping out of windows (yet). Also, take a look at Eastern European countries and their entrance into the world markets during the late 80s early 90s. Inflation in those coutries was measured in the hundreds and thousands of percent. In short, 20% is a minor thing and expected (especially where there are no countering forces like interest rates or massive linden sinks).

To those who are saying this is all crap I say this: If you are that worried about inflation, do not sell your lindens but lend them out for interest. Start a loan company with contracts and let people borrow your money. Charge them interest and collect at rates above inflation. If you do this your money will make more for you. Also, you are then not selling lindens on the market which puts fewer into the buying pool which means the linden exchange rate becomes more favorable to sellers. To protect against default, have potential clients put up some kind of collateral (land that can be owned by a group you are forced to join until repayment, US$, etc.). While I am not saying this idea is perfect, it is something that can be done now and done without changing anything drastically in game.

Just my 2 lindens.

Well if you ask me the data has been suggesting a breakout beyond the 300 level for a few days now...

I am also thinking that the change of nature of not offering a price has in fact sent things lower faster because people jump to the front in larger amounts.

I think something very significant would need to happen to change the trend now. I reckon quite a few people will have been holding back Linden and if there is a significant break the next threshold might be a ways down.

A breakout may be good in the longer term though - a panic flush of excess Linden may help us really see where the bottom is and spot opportunitistic support starting from there. Instead of maybe a false stagnation round 300.

Where would it need to hit for you to become a serious speculative buyer?

If they are in a hurray to pay tier, its not going to work and that was one of my points. If there is two million at 300L, almost no one is going to wait it out and will post at 301 or higher. If they needed that much for tier, than that is really bad planning and they are going to lose out unless they sell in smaller bits. If they spread that out for even four days 500,000 lindens per day they would have much better luck. We'll be sitting here in 7 days looking at almost the same amount at 300L with everyone else putting up sales at 305L. Putting up that many in one set amount really creates a road block and thats all. I remember sometime in January someone had amost 11 million at 261L and that for months until they moved it up to 278L. Then that sat for another several weeks etc losing even more money.

Someone is real pissed off.

What an excellent boost to the economy, and a great opportunity for people to obtain currency at a favourable rate to spend within SL to help other people make money and be rewarded for their efforts.

Just a pity I'm not in the market at the moment, having bought a chunk when it was at 300 to buy some land, and sold my excess at 296 once my previous land had sold.

Remember that 'market manipulation' goes both ways, so those who want to force the rate down can't complain when something happens to put the rate up.

Lewis

That's a fair statement Lewis.

In a way manipulating currency cost less and less management, than land.

1. you don't have to pay tier to hold linden, you can be a basic member and be a billizillionare, zero monthly maintance cost.

2. No rules against market manipulation, trades targeted to specifcly manipulate the market are not question (don't tell me it is not happening, with the recently recurring sells of $L at high levels, frequent at ~310 level and occasional ~500 level, it doesn't need to be huge amount, so long it register as a high, people get spooked. Multiple threads were started just to talk about those dumps.

The market data did not show how much was sold at certain price range. The person could have sold exactly $L500 at $L500 and still be registered as a high for the day. All a person need to do is to pull a stun like that everytime the market show a recoverary, and let the chicken little to the job, we all know there are plenty of "doomsdayers" out there that all they need is just a little spark to get the ball rolling.

Not true. The strongest the L$ has ever been was on August 31, 2004, when it reached a peak value of L$170.88/US$. Since then, it has descended to L$300/US$, a decline of over 40% in about 18 months.

Ok , stupid question from me ...

Can money only be bought in batches as the seller puts it up? Or can parts of such a batch be bought?

I mean , suppose I want to but 5000 L$ and there is someone selling 10000L$ for lets say 40USD and someone selling 5000 L$ for 30 USD.

Would it then get half the first batch for 20 USD? or would it take the more expensive batch that is exactly the ammount of L$ I specified?

The system will purchase the number of L$ you specify from the best priced order, even if that does not completely fill the order. So, if I list L$20,000 for sale, and you purchase L$1,500, then you'll get your currency, and I'll be left with L$18,500 remaining for sale.

Ah ok , thank you Ricky for the feedback.


Greatly appreciated

Perhaps the linden still needs to come down in price, mcgeeb. You will notice now that the amount of Lindens for sale above 290 has grown considerably. It's the most I've ever seen (14M). I think your predictions of a recovery for the Linden were too optimistic, market manipulation or not.

Totally comply with you there, Lewis. What's good for one person is not necessarily good for the next.

You are missing my point. They are putting out 2 million in hopes of getting say 300k off the market. I am guessing that they figure, maybe incorrectly, that they can sell 300k or so and either pull the rest at that point, or if they sell more at that rate all the better. If they do not sell, they can always hold in the hope that the panic will end and people will come back down to the better rate. You have to remember also, that 1 in that column may represent one person selling for a group so it may actually be 100 people selling in that range just being represented by the person who handles the finances for them.

That may be true, I was going by the all graph on Lindex so there may be data before its inception. if you go by that though, there was a previous era where it was 300 also (right when lindex started collecting data) so this should not seem so out of the ordinary.

Actually, since the exchange rate hit that peak, it has more-or-less continually declined. Evidence suggests it takes a *major* shock to the economy (like, say, eliminating stipend bonuses due to positive ratings or taking over a resident-run currency exchange business) to boost the rate. Even then, it's only temporary and the exchange rate returns to its long slide downward.

Case in point: Exchange rate chart -- November 2004 - March 2005
The jump in January 2005 occured when LL eliminated the rating bonuses to stipend. That was after the long slide down from L$170/US$ the August immediately preceeding. The drop in the following May was when (IIRC) LL introduced island estates and people began renting land in planned communities. This began yet another long slide downward which halted with a large upward jump in October 2005 when LL muscled into the currency exchange business with the introduction of LindeX. The rate has once again descended, and is now flirting with the all-time low of L$302.55/US$ on September 27, 2005.

Makes you wonder what they'll do next to bolster the exchange rate...

3 or 4 days of the "Sell" feature being "broken" on Lindex would do the job nicely.

I should have read here first.

But there isnt a mention on uneducated sellers here! I've watched teh market for a few days and have seen some crazy sales... up to L$759/$1!!!

I think these are uneducated sellers that think "high" is good. Don't see they are not getting the best value for their lindens. That was not the only one, but the craziest one, I admit. Why sell at 500 or 759 when if they needed the cash desperately they could have sold at 302?

This does not help the value either. Forces others who want to liquidate now to sell even higher.

Or they are actually looking to buy, releasing a small number of $L to raise the daily high to spook other sellers to put in sell order at higher level.

Especially if someone is looking to buy large land lots...

I've spoken to a few people in world who admitted to me being a bit confused when they went to sell, what with "high" being LOW value, etc, and had originally posted to sell higher, then realized, cancelled their order and reposted.

so still, a little note wont hurt.

Eventually, they will find a price at which there is enough buying interest for people to buy all of the L$ that they wish to sell, before they get undercut. Until that time, the best thing for them to do (if they want to SELL this amount of L$ rather than sit on most of it so YOU can have a better price to undercut them at ) is to continue moving up the ladder and give the best offer until their order has been filled completely.

This isn't manipulation or anything else evil. It's simply the act of selling the amount of L$ that you wish to sell. This is also EXACTLY why the exchange needs buy orders.

If the price were 290 and there were an order to buy L$2mil at 293, the seller could simply enter a market order, rather than participating in a suicidal undercutting session all the way to 300 or beyond using limit orders. Buy orders would also prevent the true manipulators, as well as the people who just don't know any better, from selling at crazy rates like 700. In order to get to 700, every buy order below 700 would need to be filled.

In conclusion, too all of you people who cry "manipulation" when the price moves higher than the rate at which YOU would like to undercut someone to sell YOUR L$, the answer is *** NOT *** posting rants in this forum. The answer is communicating with Linden Lab and letting them know how you feel about buy orders on LindeX.

The same amount of energy directed at [email]philip@lindenlab.com[/email] would probably go a lot farther towards solving the issues of runaway undercutting, confused residents losing money because they don't know any better, and yes, the occasional actual manipulation attempt.

Yup, the lack of buy order support and transparant data make the information available at Lindex pretty much useless, really only the average price is worth looking at.

The reason I don't direct this issue to the Lindens? Because I'm not in the market to buy or sell Linden, in other words... not my job.

Ok, I'm really new to currency trading anwhere but are you people telling me that I will never be able to issue a limit buy order like I have for my sell orders? I had 1 sell order trade at 299 a couple of days ago and got the equivilant of about 309.5 Lindens per dollar after the 3.5% commision. If I have to buy on the open spot market at below 300 Lindens per dollar how do I ever make a profit?