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LindenX volume

DolphPun Somme
The Pun is its own reword
Join date: 18 Nov 2005
Posts: 309
05-27-2006 10:48
I know things are ... odd with the LindenX.

One thing I have noticed is that the over all volume of $L being bought has increased regularly. Sellers seem to complain that they get less $Us for their $L, but look at the other side... its a Buyer's Market! I am sure the people buying chunks of $L just love the fact that paniced sellers keep raising the bar. ;)
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-27-2006 11:18
Volume should naturally increase in synch with the drop in value if the same amount of USDs $ are trading hands.

Totally expected.

If volume dropped that would mean that USD, in aggregate, was lower than it used to be.
Dmitri Polonsky
Registered User
Join date: 26 Aug 2005
Posts: 562
05-27-2006 12:41
From: Jamie Bergman
Volume should naturally increase in synch with the drop in value if the same amount of USDs $ are trading hands.

Totally expected.

If volume dropped that would mean that USD, in aggregate, was lower than it used to be.


Pity the volume of freebie resells doesn't drop totally.
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-27-2006 12:51
From: Dmitri Polonsky
Pity the volume of freebie resells doesn't drop totally.


You and Jonas, man. Keep the faith brother. If you keep peddling that crap, I guess someday someone will listen.
Svar Beckersted
Registered User
Join date: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 783
05-27-2006 14:01
From: Jamie Bergman
Volume should naturally increase in synch with the drop in value if the same amount of USDs $ are trading hands.

Totally expected.

If volume dropped that would mean that USD, in aggregate, was lower than it used to be.


The volume for the last 4 days has been a steady increase of $33,920, $34,008, $40,125, and $40,574. This is on days when the peak population ingame was 6986 on 23 May, 6528 on 24 May, 6609 on 25 May, and 6530 on 26 May.
Jonas Pierterson
Dark Harlequin
Join date: 27 Dec 2005
Posts: 3,660
05-27-2006 14:12
From: Jamie Bergman
You and Jonas, man. Keep the faith brother. If you keep peddling that crap, I guess someday someone will listen.


Except its true. Spent my time handing out freebies by your story yesterday btw. Including that yacht you sell for 500. Its a FREEBIE.
_____________________
Good freebies here and here

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Kai Venkman
Will script for food...
Join date: 21 Feb 2006
Posts: 43
05-27-2006 15:27
From: Jamie Bergman
Volume should naturally increase in synch with the drop in value if the same amount of USDs $ are trading hands.


Sheesh! Stop and think for a moment. The increase in volume is due to day trading that was enabled by limit buys. People are flipping Lindens...
Xerius Andalso
Registered User
Join date: 7 Feb 2006
Posts: 170
05-27-2006 22:16
From: Svar Beckersted
The volume for the last 4 days has been a steady increase of $33,920, $34,008, $40,125, and $40,574. This is on days when the peak population ingame was 6986 on 23 May, 6528 on 24 May, 6609 on 25 May, and 6530 on 26 May.


At the same time the volume of open sell orders decreased from US$ 98,880 on May 23rd, via US$ 97,974, and US$ 92,120, to US$ 86,343 an May 26th.
Svar Beckersted
Registered User
Join date: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 783
05-28-2006 01:28
From: Xerius Andalso
At the same time the volume of open sell orders decreased from US$ 98,880 on May 23rd, via US$ 97,974, and US$ 92,120, to US$ 86,343 an May 26th.

Xerius, where is your cutoff point for the lowest exchange rate for these numbers? I use L$280/1 and have lower total USD value but our 3 day differential is extremely close with $12,209 (mine) or $12,557 (yours). On 27 May I recorded an additional $4,810 reduction in the USD amonut of L$ being offered at L$280/1 and above. Which suprises me since only $34,488 worth of L$ were traded, it looks like sombody is reading the trends and holding their L$ for a lower exchange rate.

Even the clever guy who swooped in between 20:30 and 21:30 to place over L$800K at L$326/1 may have acted too soon. It was fun to watch someone else move L$765K up from L$316/1 to L$327/1 which caused the first guy to move L$733,214 to L$328/1. Yes that is right the people who watch the data can see the big money movers in action. That last move BTW will cost the merchant who did that $13.24. How do I know it was a merchant? Easy, a currency speculator wont give up the the $13.24 in profit while the merchant only lost .6% of his total sale and could care less. The other guy who moved from L$316/1 to L$327/1 made a wise move because I doubt the L$ will get as far as L$315/1 this long weekend anyway.
Xerius Andalso
Registered User
Join date: 7 Feb 2006
Posts: 170
05-28-2006 02:46
Svar, these volumes include all sell orders beginning at L$1 just to be complete.

In my charts I use the same cutoff point at L$280, though (and for more detailed analysis additional ones at 300 and 290).

The total volume of sell orders on May 27th was US$82,704. The volume in L$ (27.4 million) had fallen below the amount offered on May 18th (28.3 million). Due tue an increase in the volume sold the sell-out time* dropped from 4.2 to 3.4 days.




* sell-out time = (volume sold + volume offered)/volume sold
Xerius Andalso
Registered User
Join date: 7 Feb 2006
Posts: 170
Latest Data
05-30-2006 02:14
Date: May 28th May 29th
Sales: US$ 33,381 US$ 32,448
Sell orders: US$ 89,464 US$ 83,311
Sell-out time: 3.7 days 3.6 days
Wilhelm Neumann
Runs with Crayons
Join date: 20 Apr 2006
Posts: 2,204
05-30-2006 03:02
Actually i was kinda looking at the lindex right now and all i can say is that if i could afford to sink USD into lindens I would. Its a buyers market and anyone that can afford to do so should take advantage of it because eventualy it will swing.
Tiberious Neruda
Furry 'On File'
Join date: 1 Nov 2005
Posts: 261
05-30-2006 03:54
From: Jamie Bergman
You and Jonas, man. Keep the faith brother. If you keep peddling that crap, I guess someday someone will listen.



So, did you ever use the Burning Iris I sent you? Didn't think so.

You and ReserveBank, man... keep the faith. If you keep whining, maybe someone who doesn't see your rampant hypocrisy will give you a second to listen.

Speaking of, who's he an alt for? Got a Burning Iris for him, too...
DolphPun Somme
The Pun is its own reword
Join date: 18 Nov 2005
Posts: 309
05-30-2006 11:12
From: Kai Venkman
Sheesh! Stop and think for a moment. The increase in volume is due to day trading that was enabled by limit buys. People are flipping Lindens...


Not quite. If you look at the overall history, the volume increase was happening long before limit buys.
Xerius Andalso
Registered User
Join date: 7 Feb 2006
Posts: 170
Data of May 30th 2006
05-31-2006 01:23
Sales: US$ 34,479
Sell orders: US$ 81150
Sell-out time: 3.35 days
Xerius Andalso
Registered User
Join date: 7 Feb 2006
Posts: 170
Data of May 31st 2006
06-01-2006 01:06
Sales: US$ 32,795
Sell orders: US$ 82,842
Sell-out time: 3.5 days
Svar Beckersted
Registered User
Join date: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 783
06-02-2006 00:31
Xerius, I'm giving this thread a bump and eagerly awaiting your new update. Big things are occuring on the LindeX.
mcgeeb Gupte
Jolie Femme @}-,-'-,---
Join date: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 1,152
06-02-2006 00:46
From: Svar Beckersted
Xerius, I'm giving this thread a bump and eagerly awaiting your new update. Big things are occuring on the LindeX.


Is it just me or things finally balanced out and maybe getting soon? It's not even the weekend yet and there was a huge volume today.
Svar Beckersted
Registered User
Join date: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 783
06-02-2006 01:11
From: mcgeeb Gupte
Is it just me or things finally balanced out and maybe getting soon? It's not even the weekend yet and there was a huge volume today.


I don't have the final volume figures yet but at 2300 we were at L$13,795,788. That isn't the big news, my data is recorded at a different time than Xerius's so I want to see what he reports but the L$280/1 and above L$ value stood at $78,370 on 5/31/2006. On 6/1/2006 the L$280/1 and above L$ value stood at $53,367. That is a huge drop and isn't explained by the volume figure yet to be posted. I found L$4,456,444 removed from L$290/1 to L$315/1 and another L$2,086,392 removed from L$315/1 and above. Content providers who don't need the USD in the near future are removing huge amounts of L$ because they have better uses for the money. Whether that is parking it in the new SL Bank or they don't want to be caught in a possible massive buy down of the LindeX during the wee hours of the morning is hard to say. But unless this is a 1 day aberration there are big things brewing on the LindeX, I would be suprised if it occurs this weekend though. By the end of the month is possible.
Xerius Andalso
Registered User
Join date: 7 Feb 2006
Posts: 170
June 1st, 2006
06-02-2006 01:55
Sales: US$ 43,036
Sell orders: US$ 62,291
Sell-out time: 2.4 days
mcgeeb Gupte
Jolie Femme @}-,-'-,---
Join date: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 1,152
06-02-2006 02:09
From: Xerius Andalso
Sales: US$ 43,036
Sell orders: US$ 62,291
Sell-out time: 2.4 days


What is sell-out time?
Xerius Andalso
Registered User
Join date: 7 Feb 2006
Posts: 170
06-02-2006 03:01
From: Xerius Andalso
* sell-out time = (volume sold + volume offered)/volume sold


This describes how dynamic the market is. The lower it is, the faster the "movement".
Monique Mistral
Pink Plastic Flamingo
Join date: 14 Oct 2005
Posts: 167
06-02-2006 03:12
From: DolphPun Somme
One thing I have noticed is that the over all volume of $L being bought has increased regularly. Sellers seem to complain that they get less $Us for their $L, but look at the other side... its a Buyer's Market! I am sure the people buying chunks of $L just love the fact that paniced sellers keep raising the bar. ;)


Yup! As a consumer I'm not personally bothered by the free falling Linden much. I've bought more Lindens this week than during my whole time in SL put together. :)

It will continue to fall, nevertheless. Other than purely superficial ones (like "looking good";), there is no demand for goods and services inside SL. There is no connection between avatar and world, so what use is the Linden? No wonder it piles up.

Of course, you can't change that in a day.

What LL can and should do now, however, is to admit that Lindens are game money. Perhaps retaining buying land in $US, they should switch all upkeep (like tier) to be payable in $L. Otherwise, they'll see a flight of high end content providers from the game and the attraction of SL will decline.

Who knows, such a currency switch might even strengthen the Linden dollar.
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The idiots are definitely on the grass.
Porky Gorky
Temperamentalalistical
Join date: 25 May 2004
Posts: 1,414
06-02-2006 05:40
Despite the decline of the L$, content creators still cash out hundreds and thousands of US $ every week/month, so deeming the L$ as just game money with no value would be a stupid thing to do at the current time. Ive noticed my sales increasing at a faster rate since the L$ sped up its decline which leads me to assume that the consumer players are buying more L$ cheaper than ever and spending them on my products. Therefore as long as my sales growth exceeds the L$ decline then it's all groovy.

Alternatively my sales may have increased simply because there is a larger population and I am in fact loosing out big time with the declining L$ which I havn't considered until now. Bollocks!
Porky Gorky
Temperamentalalistical
Join date: 25 May 2004
Posts: 1,414
06-02-2006 05:41
Despite the decline of the L$, content creators still cash out hundreds ad thousands of US $ every week/month so deeming the L$ as just game money with no value would be a stupid thing to do at the current time. Ive noticed my sales increasing at a faster rate since the L$ sped up its decline which leads me to assume that the consumer players are buying more L$ cheaper than ever and spending them on my products. Therefore as long as my sales growth exceeds the L$ decline then it's all groovy.

Alternatively my sales may have increased simply becasue there is a larger population and I am in fact loosing out big time with the declining L$ which i havnt considered until now. Bollocks!
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