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Human Nature?

Rasah Tigereye
"Buckaneer American"
Join date: 30 Nov 2003
Posts: 783
06-15-2006 10:29
From: Burnman Bedlam
There are 2 people that I can think of that seem to like to post about the L$ dropping in value, and perpetuate it. I would be willing to bed these same people then purchase the L$ once they have stirred the panic up enough to drop the value further, and when the economy begins to improve, they then begin selling off their "earnings" and then when the time is right, they flood the LindeX with their excess, dropping the rate again, rinse/repeat.

When someone starts screaming SELL SELL SELL because the value is dropping... they're working against the economy, and the only two reasons I can see are:

1) Grid attack through malicious market manipulation. (disgruntled resident?)

2) Creating a panic to cause a surplus of cheap L$ to buy, only to resell at a better rate when the panic subsides.



You would need the market volatility to be more than %3.5 just to cover the selling fee and make a profit. That's very rarely the case, since that would mean hoping th market goes to $339L to sell at, and then back down to $330 to buy. Has such a rise/drop ever actually happened btw? Er, at least in the last year.
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Burnman Bedlam
Business Person
Join date: 28 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,080
06-15-2006 10:34
From: Rasah Tigereye
You would need the market volatility to be more than %3.5 just to cover the selling fee and make a profit. That's very rarely the case, since that would mean hoping th market goes to $339L to sell at, and then back down to $330 to buy. Has such a rise/drop ever actually happened btw? Er, at least in the last year.


Well, the practice seemed to be a lot more "in play" before LL announced that they would introduce L$ into the market if the value increased too high. The posts have also gained more of a "screw them all" metality rather than the psuedo-serious tone before that.

So, such being the case, perhaps it's option #1. What other reason would there be to make inflamatory posts which could harm the value?
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Burnman Bedlam
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Not happy about Linden Labs purchase of XStreet (formerly SLX) and OnRez. Will this mean LL will ban resident run online shoping outlets in favor of their own?
Hair Akebono
Registered User
Join date: 10 May 2004
Posts: 135
06-15-2006 10:46
You see it a lot on stock markets forums as well. Derampers and Rampers all trying to persuade you to buy or sell. Classic pump and dump tactics as it were. Greed is a very powerful motivator as it were.
Rasah Tigereye
"Buckaneer American"
Join date: 30 Nov 2003
Posts: 783
06-15-2006 11:10
From: Burnman Bedlam
What other reason would there be to make inflamatory posts which could harm the value?



Personal entertainment at the expense of gullible forum readers? I mean, what you're saying COULD work, very well even, if the market was going up and down and up and down quite a bit. But so far we've only had one long continuous trend in the down direction, and most of the scare posts have been ones to keep making it go down. what you said would work if the people who are doing this are willing to risk investing in this thing for, what, two years now? in hopes that it will turn around and return a profit in the long run. And as Phillip said, and I'm sure everyone here agrees with, there's no way $L will ever get back to $250 again.
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Svar Beckersted
Registered User
Join date: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 783
06-15-2006 11:14
From: Svar Beckersted
How many people noticed a huge limit buy order today that paid about $2,343 for L$800,000 and is selling it at L$328/1. That will net them $2,353 for a profit of $10.00. Ok this is a test, why would anyone do that?



Ok here is my answer to the question I posed. This trade which I feel has now been executed at both the limit buy and limit sell side was to allow this trader to use up as much of his/her currency trader tier as possible so they could ask for another tier increase. The subsequent limit buy orders were made at much more profitable rates as you only need to place the orders before asking for the next tier increase. I think this trader was just increased to either a level 2 or level 3 trader when the limit buy order that was mostly executed at L$341/1 was initially placed.

Now the question I ask, and have no theory why, is why does this trader want to get upgraded so quickly? If anyone can think of a reason it is so important to become a level 4 currency trader as quickly as possible please share it, I don't have a clue.
Rasah Tigereye
"Buckaneer American"
Join date: 30 Nov 2003
Posts: 783
06-15-2006 11:32
From: Svar Beckersted
Now the question I ask, and have no theory why, is why does this trader want to get upgraded so quickly? If anyone can think of a reason it is so important to become a level 4 currency trader as quickly as possible please share it, I don't have a clue.


That's a good question. I have blown through my $2000 limit tier in under three days. Then blew through my alt's in another three, then got my tier increased to $5000, and blew through the remaining $3000 of the $5k I had left in about 4 days. Now trading for my friend with his money and my money combined (him taking a % of the proffits off my money), and filled up his tier in under a week as well (unpredictable slow market right now). I mean, how much faster do you need to go, anyway?
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Svar Beckersted
Registered User
Join date: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 783
06-15-2006 12:08
From: Rasah Tigereye
That's a good question. I have blown through my $2000 limit tier in under three days. Then blew through my alt's in another three, then got my tier increased to $5000, and blew through the remaining $3000 of the $5k I had left in about 4 days. Now trading for my friend with his money and my money combined (him taking a % of the proffits off my money), and filled up his tier in under a week as well (unpredictable slow market right now). I mean, how much faster do you need to go, anyway?


Rasah I just got upgraded to level 2 and it was very fast so make another request.
Rasah Tigereye
"Buckaneer American"
Join date: 30 Nov 2003
Posts: 783
06-15-2006 12:28
From: Svar Beckersted
Rasah I just got upgraded to level 2 and it was very fast so make another request.



I'd rather not try to move too much money through, and since my friend has no idea how to do any of this, I'd rather play with his account and earn him some money, too.
Besides, the buy orders are bruital today >.<
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Warriorz Gremlin
Registered User
Join date: 25 Jun 2005
Posts: 5
06-15-2006 12:51
I notice there is another 800k at 342 today. Looks like he or she is back and up to their tricks again.
Svar Beckersted
Registered User
Join date: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 783
06-15-2006 12:54
I see I was wrong about the big trader as he/she is now at L$342/1 with their 800k limit buy. This will have a damping effect on the limit sell orders as this trader absorbs all the market sells until their entire order if filled if they follow their previous pattern,
Rasah Tigereye
"Buckaneer American"
Join date: 30 Nov 2003
Posts: 783
06-15-2006 13:19
From: Svar Beckersted
I see I was wrong about the big trader as he/she is now at L$342/1 with their 800k limit buy. This will have a damping effect on the limit sell orders as this trader absorbs all the market sells until their entire order if filled if they follow their previous pattern,


I guess on the other hand it seems as if that $800k buy is putting serious pressure on keeping the sell orders at $328 orbelow. Then again it could just be wishful thinking on my part.
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Svar Beckersted
Registered User
Join date: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 783
06-15-2006 13:35
From: Rasah Tigereye
I guess on the other hand it seems as if that $800k buy is putting serious pressure on keeping the sell orders at $328 orbelow. Then again it could just be wishful thinking on my part.


No this is correct. It was at the same condition yesterday when the sell orders went to L$326/1 because there were no new currency traders issuing sell orders.
mcgeeb Gupte
Jolie Femme @}-,-'-,---
Join date: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 1,152
06-15-2006 13:55
From: Warriorz Gremlin
I notice there is another 800k at 342 today. Looks like he or she is back and up to their tricks again.


Maybe they're trying to manipulate the market.
Hair Akebono
Registered User
Join date: 10 May 2004
Posts: 135
06-15-2006 14:00
From: Svar Beckersted
No this is correct. It was at the same condition yesterday when the sell orders went to L$326/1 because there were no new currency traders issuing sell orders.


What will be interesting to see is what happens when they reach their tier limits. It would weaken the buy side considerably. And at the rate they are going, it won't be long before they reach tier.
Warriorz Gremlin
Registered User
Join date: 25 Jun 2005
Posts: 5
06-15-2006 14:25
From: mcgeeb Gupte
Maybe they're trying to manipulate the market.


Of course they are. If as Rasah has said its to put pressure to keep sell below a certain point he/she have a problem though. Sell is not so easy to manipulate. There are many more people pushing large sums through sell that are not traders and will not be subject to the worries of the point spread. A log jam in Buy only affects traders and as of now there are less traders than average Residents cashing out.
mcgeeb Gupte
Jolie Femme @}-,-'-,---
Join date: 17 Sep 2005
Posts: 1,152
06-15-2006 14:27
From: Warriorz Gremlin
Of course they are. If as Rasah has said its to put pressure to keep sell below a certain point he/she have a problem though. Sell is not so easy to manipulate. There are many more people pushing large sums through sell that are not traders and will not be subject to the worries of the point spread. A log jam in Buy only affects traders and as of now there are less traders than average Residents cashing out.


Look at it, 2 million L orders between 341 and 344. Someone knows something.

Wouldn't it be smart to cause the sell orders to go somewhere around 320/1 after buying large amounts at 341???
Warriorz Gremlin
Registered User
Join date: 25 Jun 2005
Posts: 5
06-15-2006 14:30
From: mcgeeb Gupte
Look at it, 2 million L orders between 341 and 344. Someone knows something.


Possibly or they are concerned this person has max tier and will keep it all locked up for the next week or more. Trying to get something out of it before he rolls 800k over again.

The question is could he push it down that far? I am not so certain its possible for 1 person to manipulate Sell to that point.
Gigs Taggart
The Invisible Hand
Join date: 12 Feb 2006
Posts: 406
06-15-2006 18:28
From: Rasah Tigereye
Lina, they're talking about blocking up/manipulating Buy Orders, not Sell Orders. It's someone wanting to buy a bunch of $L, not sell them. They have the actual money ($USD) on hand to want to buy $800,000L


Heh, Rasah, good luck getting the broken records to realize that undercutting can happen on the buy side too.
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Jopsy Pendragon
Perpetual Outsider
Join date: 15 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,906
06-15-2006 18:39
From: mcgeeb Gupte
How come one the L strengthens 6 points no one posts anything about it. Yet when it falls 6 points, several ppl in here cry out the sky is falling creating even more panic. Is this just the way some people are?


(reading this thread with the sun reflecting off my laptop... sorry if I missed someone already answering this question...)

The answer seems obvious to me:

When the L$ falls 6 points, it's setting a new record. When it strengthens 6 points, it's merely returning to where it was not long ago. You can bet there'll be some posting going on if a 6 point strengthening sets a new 90 day record. :)
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