Linden Value dropping through the floor???
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Lina Pussycat
Texture WizKid
Join date: 19 Jun 2005
Posts: 731
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08-29-2006 01:51
From: Az Tal IMO, This thread is an example of a contrary indicator.
As soon as people start screaming about how things are "going all to hell", currency investors know that it's getting close to time to sell for a profit. It is a signal that the people that don't like low linden/dollar exchange rates are getting less likely to buy lindens at the market value.
The principle is "buy low, sell high", not "buy, then sell lower". Right now, the value of the linden is very high. It is clear to see, however, that the linden is not overvalued, because SLers bought 16 million of them today alone. A reasonable linden price target is probably 250, though that may be pushing it.
Unfortunately it is hard to get a handle on the real value of the linden without more granular data... Smart people(currency traders) will be doing a little more specific data mining on the statistics displayed on the lindex as they update. The thing is there needs to be a balance between a good selling rate and a good buying rate. People need to be willing to spend that much money on the L or the people selling the L wont make much money. 250L is fine as a balance but 275 or so is a better balance. 300 would be ideal for buyers and seller alike if it'd float around that area. If it goes to high in value it'll be as bad for the sellers as if it goes to low. If they cant unload the L it'll drop in value which is likely what will happen. L may go down in value and it'll go back up in value thats the sign of things being healthy. It's a good zone at 250L - 300L i think higher value then 250 is bad and lower then 300 is bad. I on occasion buy L but i dont feel the need to try to make money back off of SL.
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Jon Rolland
Registered User
Join date: 3 Oct 2005
Posts: 705
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08-29-2006 02:22
From: Lina Pussycat The thing is there needs to be a balance between a good selling rate and a good buying rate. People need to be willing to spend that much money on the L or the people selling the L wont make much money. 250L is fine as a balance but 275 or so is a better balance. 300 would be ideal for buyers and seller alike if it'd float around that area. If it goes to high in value it'll be as bad for the sellers as if it goes to low. If they cant unload the L it'll drop in value which is likely what will happen.
L may go down in value and it'll go back up in value thats the sign of things being healthy. It's a good zone at 250L - 300L i think higher value then 250 is bad and lower then 300 is bad. I on occasion buy L but i dont feel the need to try to make money back off of SL. why is 275 better and 300 best? why is higher than 250 or lower than 300 bad? ANY basis?
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Lina Pussycat
Texture WizKid
Join date: 19 Jun 2005
Posts: 731
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08-29-2006 02:31
From: Jon Rolland why is 275 better and 300 best? why is higher than 250 or lower than 300 bad? ANY basis? Well i stated the basis. You need a good balance of the buyer and the seller both. The sellers have to be careful as to not price themselves out of selling things. 300L gives a nice exchange rate for a sale for 300L > 1 usd which is a good balance between both what you get for buying and what the seller gets for selling. I say that as i buy L now and then and its becoming less appealing to buy them as the price increases. This causes the economy to drop back down after awhile which is good. Going over 250L > 1 usd is asking a bit much from the buyer end of things at 250L > 1usd it already costs 4 bucks to buy a decent skin. Higher then that you start getting less and less money sold as the value of the L gradually increases. Its unlikely to happen because if the buyers arnt willing to pay the higher value it wont go up instead it will slide back down to what the buyers want for awhile till the sellers can bring it back up and will keep restabalizing in the two postiions of seller and consumer. Higher L value only benefits the sellers not the buyers so trying to get the value of the L up to high is basically a bad thing for everyone. As i said with the end the optimum is between 250 - 300L fluxating somewhere in between there. 300L being the good for buyers end and 250L being the good for sellers end and it balances well at either any value in between there for both sides of the equation.
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Fade Languish
I just build stuff...
Join date: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 1,760
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08-29-2006 03:33
From: Lina Pussycat Well i stated the basis. You need a good balance of the buyer and the seller both. The sellers have to be careful as to not price themselves out of selling things. 300L gives a nice exchange rate for a sale for 300L > 1 usd which is a good balance between both what you get for buying and what the seller gets for selling. I say that as i buy L now and then and its becoming less appealing to buy them as the price increases. This causes the economy to drop back down after awhile which is good. Going over 250L > 1 usd is asking a bit much from the buyer end of things at 250L > 1usd it already costs 4 bucks to buy a decent skin. Higher then that you start getting less and less money sold as the value of the L gradually increases. Its unlikely to happen because if the buyers arnt willing to pay the higher value it wont go up instead it will slide back down to what the buyers want for awhile till the sellers can bring it back up and will keep restabalizing in the two postiions of seller and consumer. Higher L value only benefits the sellers not the buyers so trying to get the value of the L up to high is basically a bad thing for everyone. As i said with the end the optimum is between 250 - 300L fluxating somewhere in between there. 300L being the good for buyers end and 250L being the good for sellers end and it balances well at either any value in between there for both sides of the equation. You're missing the bit where inworld prices adjust according to current L$ value, therefore regardless of what the rate is, people are still paying the same amount of US$ for their widgets. The difference is psychological. Stability, or lack thereof, is what counts, not the rate itself.
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Lina Pussycat
Texture WizKid
Join date: 19 Jun 2005
Posts: 731
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08-29-2006 04:48
From: Fade Languish You're missing the bit where inworld prices adjust according to current L$ value, therefore regardless of what the rate is, people are still paying the same amount of US$ for their widgets. The difference is psychological. Stability, or lack thereof, is what counts, not the rate itself. Alot of the designers out there dont adjust their prices i didnt see a fluxation in prices for the most part at all when it went lower or higher. Mabye to someone selling land they'd adjust but when the rate was lower still had to pay same price for a skin as i do now so technically im paying more Usd for the same thing. Also the rate matters to the buyer if you take that into account. Its not just clear cut your assuming that most of the content creators are changing prices but if you watch last time we didnt see a jump in prices and then we didnt see a fall in prices in world as this went on from 330 some L or whatever to 280 or so. Skin's and clothing and most gadgets still cost the same as they did when it was a lower value.
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Surina Skallagrimson
Queen of Amazon Nations
Join date: 19 Jun 2003
Posts: 941
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08-29-2006 05:15
Hey guess what, the exchange rate between USD and UKP changes daily as well, but I don't see US stores adjusting their prices so that us Brits on holiday pay the same value in UKP...
The land of SecondLife has to be thought of in terms of a seperate economic entity, just as any other country is. It has an "official" exchange rate against the USD which is set by market forces, but anyone could just as easily create a market based on UKP (which are almost twice as valuable as USD).
Stop thinking of SL in terms of an American playground. Your USD have no value inside SL.
_____________________
-------------------------------------------------------- Surina Skallagrimson Queen of Amazon Nation Rizal Sports Mentor
-------------------------------------------------------- Philip Linden: "we are not in the game business." Adam Savage: "I reject your reality and substitue my own."
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Fade Languish
I just build stuff...
Join date: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 1,760
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08-29-2006 05:20
From: Lina Pussycat Alot of the designers out there dont adjust their prices i didnt see a fluxation in prices for the most part at all when it went lower or higher. Mabye to someone selling land they'd adjust but when the rate was lower still had to pay same price for a skin as i do now so technically im paying more Usd for the same thing. Also the rate matters to the buyer if you take that into account. Its not just clear cut your assuming that most of the content creators are changing prices but if you watch last time we didnt see a jump in prices and then we didnt see a fall in prices in world as this went on from 330 some L or whatever to 280 or so. Skin's and clothing and most gadgets still cost the same as they did when it was a lower value. Granted, some sectors of SL's economy respond very slowly too value fluctuations, which is why I said stability is what's important. If it is stable, it really doesn't matter what the rate is, eventually everything will catch up. If the L$ went to 350 and stayed there for say, six months, you bet prices would change, because tier is still costing them the same in US$, and eventually they have to do something about it, unless they're getting increased volume. If it went to L$250, and stayed thereabouts for six months, eventually they will respond to decreased demand my dropping their prices. Absolutely they will. That's why it's as Jon suggested, there is no intrinsically bad rate, it's large, rapid movements either way that can be bad. There is more to the economy than land barons and hair sellers by the way. My prices definitely respond to L$ fluctuations either way, especially when L$ are getting expensive. When you're doing a 5 or 6 figure build, you have to account for how much they're paying for their L$ in US$, or you'll price yourself out of a job.
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Nik Ebisu
Registered User
Join date: 27 Jul 2006
Posts: 2
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08-29-2006 05:22
Exactly. but wouldnt it be GBP not UKP 
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Surina Skallagrimson
Queen of Amazon Nations
Join date: 19 Jun 2003
Posts: 941
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08-29-2006 06:24
From: Nik Ebisu Exactly. but wouldnt it be GBP not UKP  If you wanna be pedantic it's Sterling... 
_____________________
-------------------------------------------------------- Surina Skallagrimson Queen of Amazon Nation Rizal Sports Mentor
-------------------------------------------------------- Philip Linden: "we are not in the game business." Adam Savage: "I reject your reality and substitue my own."
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Lina Pussycat
Texture WizKid
Join date: 19 Jun 2005
Posts: 731
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08-29-2006 07:33
From: Fade Languish Granted, some sectors of SL's economy respond very slowly too value fluctuations, which is why I said stability is what's important. If it is stable, it really doesn't matter what the rate is, eventually everything will catch up. If the L$ went to 350 and stayed there for say, six months, you bet prices would change, because tier is still costing them the same in US$, and eventually they have to do something about it, unless they're getting increased volume. If it went to L$250, and stayed thereabouts for six months, eventually they will respond to decreased demand my dropping their prices. Absolutely they will. That's why it's as Jon suggested, there is no intrinsically bad rate, it's large, rapid movements either way that can be bad. There is more to the economy than land barons and hair sellers by the way. My prices definitely respond to L$ fluctuations either way, especially when L$ are getting expensive. When you're doing a 5 or 6 figure build, you have to account for how much they're paying for their L$ in US$, or you'll price yourself out of a job. That varies heavily and is quite subjective to each person. While you may adjust your prices others may not. The L had been going down for awhile and the prices never caught up with december - junes drop in most of the places i shopped at in between that time period. The L value would need to drop pretty far below 400L > 1 usd for the prices to go up and over 200L per 1 usd for them to go down in all likelyhood. Around 250-350 i dont think prices are really going to fluxuate as far as i've seen in over a year of being here. Exchange rate was 250 when i started SL then gradually went down. Hitting a low below 300 for a good while - Prices in world never adjusted. Which is why i say that from experience over the past year. I say betwene 250 - 300L is a good area to fluxuate between because i dont feel 250L is to much and i dont feel 300L is to low and in between is just a good balance in general the question is if they can keep it in between there keeping it stable in that sense 
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Fade Languish
I just build stuff...
Join date: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 1,760
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08-29-2006 08:49
From: Lina Pussycat That varies heavily and is quite subjective to each person. While you may adjust your prices others may not. The L had been going down for awhile and the prices never caught up with december - junes drop in most of the places i shopped at in between that time period. The L value would need to drop pretty far below 400L > 1 usd for the prices to go up and over 200L per 1 usd for them to go down in all likelyhood. Around 250-350 i dont think prices are really going to fluxuate as far as i've seen in over a year of being here. Exchange rate was 250 when i started SL then gradually went down. Hitting a low below 300 for a good while - Prices in world never adjusted. Which is why i say that from experience over the past year. I say betwene 250 - 300L is a good area to fluxuate between because i dont feel 250L is to much and i dont feel 300L is to low and in between is just a good balance in general the question is if they can keep it in between there keeping it stable in that sense  So you contend that somehow SL is entirely immune from the laws of demand and supply? I acknowledged that some sectors of the economy are resistant to raising prices. I put this down partly to social factors, but mostly to the one thing that is unique about SL in this context - that some sectors have zero marginal costs of production, that is, there is no additional cost for every exra widget produced. They can make up the difference in volume, and their supply is unlimited. Once their fixed costs are met, it's all profit after that, so as long as the volume is there, it doesn't cost them to lower prices. The same cannot be said for land and services, their supply is not unlimited, nor do they enjoy zero marginal costs, and that is a big chunk of the economy, that can't just be dismissed. Furthermore, that zero marginal cost doesn't impact when the L$ is increasing in value. When the L$ gets more expensive to buy, demand will fall, both for the Linden and for widgets in-world, and that is not something that can be ignored for long. The volume won't be there, and if fixed costs aren't being met, prices will have to go down. There isn't the same resistance to dropping prices, economic or social. Also, Lewis said that most won't buy at these values - if that was so, if the L$ was to expensive, a decrease in demand would cause that to be reversed, and sellers will respond very quickly to their Lindens not being sold. Basically, if they're still selling, the price is good. The fact that the L$ is fetching more, proves there is demand at that rate. I also disagree that prices didn't go up in-world at previous values. It took a while, but they did start to move up. I maintain that there is no intrinsically 'good' rate, other than the price the market can bear at any given time.
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Lina Pussycat
Texture WizKid
Join date: 19 Jun 2005
Posts: 731
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08-29-2006 19:08
Fade the point is more a value in between at which neither side will scream pretty much. Below 300 we have some people like R&D screaming that the sky is falling sell sell sell. And if it gets to high we get a thread like this going where the buyers are saying some things are to high. My statement is that once the value of the L gets to high people will stop buying it and i also stated that its unlikely to get to high as the buyers kind of control that so i did acknowledge that bit. You see the problem is I joined SL back in June 05, now a skin back then had cost me 1k. Value did not adjust for most of the items that were pre established such as skins and what not they might of adjusted on newer products that havent been done before but for the most part there wasnt a change. The change came thru land and services but not the content market.
So with 250L > 1 usd i gota pay 4usd+ for a skin. Now if that gets higher and the price isnt adjusted you start paying a bit more. The reason 250L-300L is a good area is it allows for some fluxuation and it prices dont need to adjust heavily accordingly its a good area for both the buyer market and the seller market alike. So where it is now is great for both sides.
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Jon Rolland
Registered User
Join date: 3 Oct 2005
Posts: 705
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08-29-2006 19:17
From: Lina Pussycat Below 300 we have some people like R&D screaming that the sky is falling sell sell sell. You mean below 300US/1L right?
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Lina Pussycat
Texture WizKid
Join date: 19 Jun 2005
Posts: 731
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08-29-2006 19:27
From: Jon Rolland You mean below 300US/1L right? 300L > 1us
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Zephria Zapata
Anit-Gorean & Slave
Join date: 7 Apr 2004
Posts: 299
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08-29-2006 19:35
From: Lewis Nerd L$274? That's pathetic.
When it was L$326, certain individuals were screaming that the sky was falling.... now it's the same the other side of L$300, they're remarkably quiet.
When it's L$326 it's "OMG market manipulation", when it's L$274 it's "the free market economy working exactly as it should".
It may well be connected with the drop of stipends, and Linden Lab need to rescue the economy by either raising stipends back to their normal level, or selling some L$ themselves as already discussed, otherwise nobody will be able to afford to play their game.
Lewis Different form what mines says you think that crazy see this Buy Linden Dollars (Market Buy) Quantity of Linden Dollars: 199 OR Approximate Cost in US$: 1.00 when it says today it is Daily Summary Last Close Date 2006-08-28 Best buying rate: L$285 / US$1.00 Best selling rate: L$300 / US$1.00 Last trade: L$285 / US$1.00 Last close: L$283 / US$1.00 Change: +L$2 / US$1.00 Today's volume: L$13,056,447 Today's open: L$283 / US$1.00 Today's high: L$301 / US$1.00 Today's low: L$283 / US$1.00 Today's average: L$289.9724 / US$1.00
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Jon Rolland
Registered User
Join date: 3 Oct 2005
Posts: 705
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08-29-2006 19:40
From: Lina Pussycat 300L > 1us Then you don't pay much attn do you? RBD was moaning LONG before 300L/1US.
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Surina Skallagrimson
Queen of Amazon Nations
Join date: 19 Jun 2003
Posts: 941
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08-30-2006 04:41
From: Zephria Zapata Different form what mines says you think that crazy see this
Buy Linden Dollars (Market Buy) Quantity of Linden Dollars: 199 OR Approximate Cost in US$: 1.00
when it says today it is
Daily Summary Last Close Date 2006-08-28 Best buying rate: L$285 / US$1.00 Best selling rate: L$300 / US$1.00 Last trade: L$285 / US$1.00 Last close: L$283 / US$1.00 Change: +L$2 / US$1.00 Today's volume: L$13,056,447 Today's open: L$283 / US$1.00 Today's high: L$301 / US$1.00 Today's low: L$283 / US$1.00 Today's average: L$289.9724 / US$1.00 The automated price you're offered on the market buy/sell pages include TRANSACTION FEES. So if you enter a very small amount like L$199 or $1 then the transaction fees (which have a fixed component of 0.30 for a buy) become a major part of the price you're paying. If you deal with numbers L$10,000 and up then the fixed transaction fee becomes insignificant and the calculated exchange rate will closely match. The rates displayed in the table exclude transaction fees.
_____________________
-------------------------------------------------------- Surina Skallagrimson Queen of Amazon Nation Rizal Sports Mentor
-------------------------------------------------------- Philip Linden: "we are not in the game business." Adam Savage: "I reject your reality and substitue my own."
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