Prediction: $L289 =$us1

By Sunday I believe the value of the $L will increase to $289L per dollar.

Wow, and I thought I could pull rabits out of my hat!

No comment!

That would be quite the move. On what do you base that prediction?

you have a rabid hat?

coffee! i need coffee!

Shenanigans.

I predict it won't, and will be around the L$300 mark where it should be.

Lewis

The rabbit told me. Buy low, sell high! My prediction last week was very close. I said it would drop from 316 to 300 in afew days and I missed it by 2-3L.

I predict it will move up to the 350 mark and fluctuate in small amounts near that point, because that is when you reach the point at which premiums would get just as much money by putting their bill into the lindex instead, so it will probably stay around that point in order to keep people on the premium plan. If it didn't the lindens could make money by putting part of the premium users's bill into the lindex rather than creating the money from thin air, which would eventually put the money supply issue away and keep the ratio around that 350 mark.

I didnt do those calculations myself, but other ppl have said that 350 is where you hit that premium bill/stipend ratio so I'm just going with that number for now, I imagine it is close to that, +- maybe 50L.

You're high.

Talk to me about it this weekend

I see 310 to 1 as the bottom.

310? It only went over 300 because of a scare, LL shouldn't have suggested they will compete with citizens in the $L market. If LL made a promise to never sell for less than $L245 to the dollar all will calm down.

Well... Philip IS going to announce something in this town hall.
Maybe it will be the death of stipends oO
Regardless of WHEN, he already said its inevitable in other town halls. If I had any spare cash to burn I would be converting it all to lindens, cuz LL *will* act to bring the value back up sooner than later.

Perhaps so, but without some *major* economic policy change, there is nothing to bring the exchange rate back down. It can get pushed up because of a scare, but once it hits a certain level, it's unlikely to come back down.

Thats true.... There isn't enough US$ flowing into buying Linden
Dollars to move the exchange rate back up.

Some people might think, "Ohh if the L$ gets cheaper, I can buy more."
But what will happen is the forces making it cheaper (ie: money supply)
will put more linden dollars up for sale. So at L$315 you might have blocks
of L$1/million - L$2/million. At L$500 it might be blocks of L$4 or L$5/million.

King Philip is having a Skype TownHall tonight at 3p PST... Maybe its time
that every question asked is related to what policy changes are they going
to implement to get the linden dollar back up in value. An explain their
reason on how that policy is going to work.

Sounds like LL is thinking about ditching Stipends and making
people buy stipends from them directly for USDs?

Now that I gotta see... I'm gonna be laughing my azz off
as the Jonas and Ranma's of the world start crying and
singing their sad song, "I Paid for my Stipends".

so did he announce it?

I wasn't there - but the lack of postings on the subject would indicate that it wasn't mentioned.

Lewis

Is somebody running a sweepstake, then? What's the pot?

Hmmm... time for a Lindex futures market methinks
Place your spreads on what the value will be - gambling weakly disguised as serious economic prediction, thats gotta be a big hit

Maybe 310 with some big time shopping.

In the town hall Philip said that supposedly they don't actually need to remove stipends (yet), since the money supply is growing slower than the population. So L$ are becoming scarcer by the minute, and if their theories are correct, this will drive the price back up, combined with the introduction of buy orders on the market.

do you have some privileged information from someone intending to buy 30 million L$ this weekend?

Yes, I heard it from a little bird that heard it from the rabbit I pulled from a hat I got from a blind magician.

Actually Jauani, someone doesn't need to buy 30 million L$ this weekend. As of 11:00 PM Friday night you only need to buy 25 million L$ to bring the exchange rate down to L$279/1. In USD that is only $82,560 and 21 Tier 4 Currency Traders could buy that much in two days. Actually any 21 residents over 45 days old could do it but Currency Traders could do it after buying up large blocks of L$ selling over L$300/1 for the prior 28 days. It is something to think about in light of Kevn Klien's prediction and two very odd L$70000+/1 sales in the past 18 days to destabilize the market.