Call American Express, Need More Cash

I doubt that basic accounts would account for half of the total stipend given out considering its only 50L compared to 500L. I think premium accounts would be a much higher percentage of 24,648 than half using those numbers.
Also the number of active accounts we will now have to consider all new basic accounts during the past month not getting stipends.

You should pull your head out of the numbers more and pay attention to the world... there isn't a L$10k widget... but there have been features introduced that have resulted in new must-have widgets... there has been a major innovation in the hair and clothing market... it's called flexi, and right now, women all over SL are updating large portions of their wardrobe. My partner has easily spent L$10-20k (bought off the Lindex) in the last month, and she's far from alone.

Not everyone needs land, but almost everyone wants to look good. Fashion is a huge market, and no one wants old static hair and skirts etc anymore. So yes, there are new must-have widgets. I'm not pretending that has single-handedly driven demand up, but do not understimate people's desire to consume in SL. The female dollar wields clout in SL.

You flip back and forwards with your numbers when it suits your argument... in this example, you assume the whole 300,000 accounts, other times, you calculate using the number of accounts you believe to be active. To suggest that there must be 300,000 buyers for a L$10k widget for demand to be sustained is both simplistic and ridiculous.

The week that flexy came out, I had a huge jump in sales when I updated all my skirts and hair to flexy prims. I almost need to get ride of the "old" static stuff, its just taking up space now. May be one of the reasons why Lindex gained strength

As predicted by yours truely, the Linden Dollar is beginning its fall back down. What happen to the rally? Sure will be a lot of egg on some faces if that Linden Dollar doesn't move higher. Because as Ole RBD predicted, the recent run up is a dead cat bounce without supporting fundamentals in SL to sustain the increased valuation.

There is no need for me to be quiet, because I will have the last laugh.. HEheheheheh
Get your L$ during the Sucker Rally, because you'll be left holding the bag...

I ask you again why you bother. The only reason I can see is that you are selling short Lindens. Other than that it is just some sort of weird mockingbird act.



Oh I think you are a resident of the USA and should pay attention to the laws of the host country of Second Life. I can hear you now in front of a judge announcing that King Phillip gave you a charter for your virtual bank. Laugh *giggle and even more laugh. My 401k plan is split among a group of different things. Also I don’t announce that the recent rise in the price of my shares is due to the dead dog bounce. Laugh you are an inverted optimist!

I think that you have some very funny material J

I bother because I feel like it. Why do you bother? Only reason I can see is that you want to hype up the Linden Dollar, only to see poor innocent folks get left holding the bag once there are no more suckers to buy this pig. Reminds me of the Great Tulip Mania in the 1600s.


Tulip Bulbs and the Stock Market
By Ric Edelman
From Inside Personal Finance

I don’t know if you have ever heard of the “Tulip Craze.” It is often studied by psychologists, economists and market observers. And if you’ve never heard the story, you won’t believe it’s true. But it is. It really happened, and if we’re not careful, it could happen again.

The story begins in 1559. Conrad Guestner brought the first tulip bulbs from Constantinople to Holland and Germany, and people fell in love with them. Soon tulip bulbs became a status symbol for the wealthy — because they were beautiful and hard to get.

Although early buyers were people who truly prized the lovely flowers, later buyers were merely in for the money, and it didn’t take long for speculators to get involved. They created trading activity, and eventually, tulip bulbs were placed onto the local market exchanges. By 1634, the rage for owning tulips had spread to the middle classes of Dutch society. Merchants and shopkeepers began to vie with one and another for single tulip bulbs.

How bad did it get? Well, at the height of tulip mania in 1635, a single tulip bulb was sold for the following items:


• four tons of wheat
• eight tons of rye
• one bed
• four oxen
• eight pigs
• 12 sheep
• one suit of clothes
• two casks of wine
• four tons of beer
• two tons of butter
• 1,000 pounds of cheese
• one silver drinking cup.


The present day value of all these items? Nearly $35,000! Can you imagine spending $35,000 for a single tulip bulb? This was happening in Holland in the mid-17th century. It was getting so bizarre that people were selling everything they owned – their homes, their livestock, everything – for the privilege of owning tulips, on the expectation that the bulbs would continue to grow in value.

As a result, prices – in today’s dollars – ranged from $17,000 all the way up to $76,000 for a single bulb.

By 1636, tulips were established on the Amsterdam stock exchange, as well as exchanges in Rotterdam, Harlem, Levytown, Horne and other forums in Europe. Popular interest had shifted from hobbyists and collectors to speculators and gamblers. People from all walks of life liquidated their homes and real estate at incredibly low prices in order to speculate in tulip trading.

Tulip notaries and clerks were appointed to record transactions, and public laws and regulations were developed to control the tulip craze. But in 1636, some began to liquidate their tulip holdings. Tulip prices began to weaken, slowly at first, and then rapidly. Confidence was soon destroyed, and panic seized the market. Within six weeks, tulip prices crashed by 90%. Defaults on contracts and liens on owners were widespread.
At first the Dutch government refused to interfere. Instead, it simply advised tulip holders to agree among themselves on some plan to stabilize prices and restore public confidence. These plans failed. Eventually, assembled deputies in Amsterdam declared null and void all contracts that were made at the height of the mania, meaning prior to November 1636. Tulip contracts made subsequent to that date were settled if buyers paid merely 10% of the prices to which they had earlier agreed.

But tulip prices continued to fall. Next, the provincial council in the Hague was asked to invent some measure to stabilize tulip prices and public credit. Those efforts failed. Tulip prices again fell even lower. In Amsterdam, judges unanimously refused to honor tulip contracts, regarding them as gambling activities. The court rules that gambling debts were not debts in the eyes of the law. No court in Holland could — or would — enforce payment. Tulip collectors, speculators, and gamblers who had tulips at the time of the collapse were left to bear ruinous losses.

Tulip prices soon plunged to less than the present equivalent of a dollar each. Imagine having bought a tulip for $76,000, only to discover six weeks later that it was now worth less than one dollar. Commerce in Holland suffered a severe shock, and did not recover for many years.

Now I know what you are saying, “Come on! … who on earth could possibly have gotten caught up in that?” I know how you feel. After all, we’re talking tulips here – not food, shelter, clothing, or firearms for defense! We’re talking TULIPS! What practical value could tulips have had in Holland in 1636? And what could cause people to lose such control of their senses???

Well, if you think the story is too preposterous to be true, trust me it did happen. And believe me, too, when I tell you that it could happen again. No way, you say? Well, I have only two words for you:
Beanie Baby.

You make predictions based on faulty assumptions and bad math and then gloat as soon as it looks like you might have guessed correctly?


You're so desperate to spread your FUD and bash the L$, most likely for your own gains, that tried to pass this calculation off as valid by rounding? L$12,323,850 / L$500 does not equal 24,648...it equals 24,647.7. You either lacked the common sense or the math skills to realize that something was wrong with your calculation when you wound up with 0.7 of an account. We're supposed to take you seriously when you just throw numbers around without even thinking about what they really mean?

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."
--Lao Tzu

Oh for the same reason as you do to see your responce. However I have no personnel reason for the Lindens value to rise or fall . I also do not know for sure what the value of the Linden will be next week never mind next month.
I just find your panic sell messages of yours and your alts odd and wish to understand the why of them. Call it a hobby and perhaps I can gain a better understanding of real world prices by understanding a much smaller model of them. Of course the model might have very to do with the real world just like the many computer "models" of earth weather

Then go buy some linden dollars and wait for the expected rally so you can profit.. If you think my assumptions are full of poo, then put your money where your mouth is... Just like the old saying, "Money Talks and Bullsh*t walks."

Me.. If LL would allow you to short the L$, I would short this baby for every nickel I can get my hands on...

Daily Summary:
Last Close Date 2006-07-05
Best buying rate: L$299 / US$1.00
Best selling rate: L$313 / US$1.00
Last trade: L$299 / US$1.00
Last close: L$301 / US$1.00
Change: -L$2 / US$1.00
Today's volume: L$6,945,854
Today's open: L$302 / US$1.00
Today's high: L$316 / US$1.00
Today's low: L$299 / US$1.00
Today's average: L$304.5345 / US$1.00

Better check again. -2. Only +2 from our rally's peak of 297. By this weekend we'll see that again.

It's highly improbable that you'll have the last laugh.. provided every post you make on the forums incites way more laughter for many people

I have another story for you. It's called "The little boy who cried wolf."

http://www.storyarts.org/library/aesops/stories/boy.html

The villagers are laughing at you now... and when the wolf comes, nobody believes you anymore Well. The wolf came for the little boy's sheep, but the rest of the village did just fine.

The tulip story has nothing to do with money - its referring at the end to the Beanie Babies craze. Fiat money is fiat money, its only ever worth what people think its worth. And for that matter, anything else people seem to give value to, that doesn't have an obvious value for any reason - as in its not contributing to your physical well being. Gold is just metal after all. Diamond just rock. They only have value because people value them. I could add flexiskirts, or anything else in SL to that list - you don't need any of it to exist. It's all entertainment items. It's all worth what people think its worth.

Money is just a medium of trade exchange for other things people want to own. Up or down it doesnt matter - its just a medium of exchange to me to buy/sell things in game.

Personally it does me well if the Linden remains stable, at whatever price I am not caring much. Just so long as it doesn't move very drastically - even when the linden gains value too quickly can put a damper on people wanting to buy currency to buy things.

A sense of certainty is what helps keep the economy stable, more than anything. And it's very much a state of mind.

So on that note, I am glad the villagers have stopped paying much attention to your shrill cries of wolf.

No worries... Buy all the linden dollars you need.. I'll be very happy to repurchase them from you at a discount in a few months.

It is always funny to watch people try to defend a bubble.

Very funny. You're the one trying to catch bubbles everyday ...

I am requesting a bit of enlightenment and assistance here. I am familiar with the term "dead cat bounce"...but what I am not sure of exactly....is when the activity it describes CEASES to be a "dead cat bounce"...and becomes acknowledged as being something OTHER THAN a "dead cat bounce".

How much time does it take? Or can there simply be a "dead cat bounce" that goes on for decades perhaps? When measured in Centuries, or Millenia this may very well make sense, but for those who are living at the time...whether or not their lifelong economy is actually experiencing a "dead cat bounce" of the Century...may not seem that important.


So...I am just wondering...the decline had stopped around 330....The Linden has worked its way back up to 300 (approx)...has sustained itself above 330 (approx) for over one month, and is currently hovering around 300. Over the last week, it has been claimed repeatedly that it had only been a run and is now OVER...heading into 300+ and lower and lower valuation. These claims were made right here in this very forum...several times...over several days.

And Yet, a week later..after all of the " I told you so - SELL" ...it is not 300+ , rather...it remains around 300 still.

Now, perhaps it IS only "temporary". I do not claim to foresee the future...but I do know that time is relative...

Now...I just want to know...how long does it take, before it stops being a "dead cat bounce" here, in the SL economy. How long must the Linden remain above 330 for the cat to be given its proper burial?

Please answer that in terms of days, weeks, months or years. I will even accept decades, if it needs be to go that far.

Once again...just to make sure I did not leave too much room for mistake, or confusion...

I am requesting that the answer for my previous post regarding the TIME for the dead cat to die....

is to be given in Days, Weeks, Months, Years, or even Decades if needs be.


For example.....

A) about 6 weeks
B) 10 years
C) Human lifetime
D) Infinite amount of time - cat is immortal

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce

Two interesting things from there:

The bounce only qualifies as dead cat bounce if it's not reflecting improved circumstances, (so RDB needs to check his posting, removing new basic stipends might not affect the economy enough, but since he was anti-stipends, and some went there's an improvement of circumstances so it's not a dead cat bounce if he's consistent)

and

You can only tell them in retrospect. It also gives a time line, at least implicitly, it's quick, the following days and weeks reveal whether it was a dead cat bounce or a genuine improvement.

Looks like the rally continues and everyone has been calling American Express. Where did those 5 million Lindens at 297 go tonight????

Oh and when can stop with this dead cat bounce? It's been almost 8 weeks now since the low in the 336 range. I think by next weekend we could see 290L. Only thing that might slow it down is a lot of large sell orders like the 4 million Linden one. We won't be seeing 330 anytime soon.

For me the value is increasing.

Since I depend on my SL income.
Wich isn't that great...rather small even.

But it's better then nothing.

I don't use the market, but the market is depreciating in regards to the only function I'd use it for.

And as foretold by mcgeeb, so it has come to pass.