L$717,618,852 And Growing

And McGeeb thinks that user totals are absolute, nevermind the fact that a large majority of those "users" are Alt Accounts and Users who haven't logged in for months/years. Thats is like counting dead people as part of the population.


LL should list Active Accounts in the last 30-90/days and consider those accounts as the true number. Not the total number of accounts which have been registered since SL came into existance..


Ohh thats right, RDB doesn't know math and mcgeeb doesn't have common sense. He thinks 300,694 residents are all active and roaming SL every night... To even add insult to injury, some of those resident numbers included accounts which have been banned.

Population
Logged-in Users
Residents Logged-In During Last 60 Days
146,177

And how many of those are (REPEAT) users? Nothing in that
report says (Unique Users).

I could have logged in 1000 times in 1 month.

Well, it doesn't say "Number of logins last month", that's the first clue.

I probably logged in about 150 times last month. Are you implying that there are only a couple thousand unique users logging in monthly?

LOL,

You really think that if they counted repeat logins that the number would only be 146,000.

By that statistic, if everyone logged in and out as much as I do, that would be about 1000 unique accounts.

Just a couple of weeks ago, that figure was for unique resident logins...

That would mean that half the population logged in sometime in the last 60 days.

If the shoe fits...

Yes... 146,000 / 28/days = 5,214 logins a day..

That won't fly, there were over 8,000 logged in on Tuesday between 7 and 8 PM.

Actually RBD's main isue is his continued unsuccesfgul atempts at forcing ppl to buy his L's and pruchase freebies from his alt ran shop in SL. The upshot of this is while day trading L's may very well be stabilized, in world content purchsing is waaaay down. Something needs to be done to stimulate purchase of content in world or the whole thing is moot as a lot of content creators will just hang it up. I recently responded to an ad looking for builders/scripters only to find it was a freebie reseller who wanted to pay les for full perm copies of stuf than retail rates for one item that was NOT full perms. All LL has done by removing the stipends they ahve is to kil content creation and honest marketing of same and open the door for these leeches sucking on our backsides.

Um... I'm not sure what you're getting at... but 5,214 sounds like it falls rather short of the 'peak # of concurrent users per day' average.


--
Say there are 150 lightbulbs in a house...
and only 100 bulbs have been 'on' within the last 20 days...

Does that mean that ONLY 5 have been turned on each day?

What is the running average? It isn't 8,000..... 7p-8p is only around 5%-10% of the endtire 24/hr clock. Yeah, prime time might hit 8,000 and offhours it might be more like 1,000... The overall average is nothing near your peak hour reports.

You folks need to get a clue about the stats LL spits out.
They claim 300,000 users, but they don't spell out for you the
last time those 300,000 users had an active session or even
if they are alt accounts owned by other active members...


Lets assume everybody has a registration number. The new
people have numbers like 253,422 or 300,006. And real old
timers have account numbers like 12 or 543. The question is,
of the account numbers between 0 - 50,000, how many of the
users logged in with in the last 30 days? Repeat with accounts
from 50,001 - 100,000, and so on...

You would most likely see the most active accounts between
250,000 - 300,000 and least active accounts between 0 - 50,000.
Then of the 6 (50,000) user account groupings, add up the total
number of active accounts within the last 30 days. That would give
you a much better view of account utilization and also confirm/deny
if the 300,000 User Base number contains 100% utilization or only
10-20% utilization. Trailing off as accounts get old and people get
bored with SL.

Just remember folks, that 300,000 number is including accounts
created 2 and 1/2 years ago.... Do you really think all 50,000 users
who signed up in the 0-50,000 batch are still around and active?

Based on what data is purchasing "waaaay down"?

The lowest number I could find was 2900 at 4 AM last week.

And how many of the 2900 @ 4am are double counted from the 8000 @ 7p?
(ie: folks who didn't logout)?


That is the problem with the data LL dishes out.. It (Looks Good), but thats
only at the surface. Peel back a layer of two and you start asking questions
like:

a) Of the 300,000 how many are accounts not active since Dec 31st, 2005?
b) How many of 300,000 accounts are unique and not alts of other players?
c) How many people counted at 7p are double counted at 4a?


LL's User Base stats are akin to counting everybody coming in the front
door and never subtracting all the accounts going out the back door.

Case and point: HavaEleora Grace - Last Login: 10/3/2005

This person is still is being counted in the 300,000 user base numbers, but
hasn't done jack in SL for almost 9/months. Why should they still be considered
in stats? For all intense and purposes, this account should be considered (INACTIVE).

Maybe LL could list ACTIVE and INACTIVE Users. Lets 6/months be the timeframe. And I bet you L$1.00 (Remember Trading Places), that you see 75% of the 300,000 be listed as Inactive and 25% as Active. But that would be bad news for LL and its investors and ego.. As such, LL will just smile and claim 300,000 in news reports and such to make itself look good.. Gotta put some lipstick in this pig...

I repeat... the title for that figure was UNIQUE RESIDENT LOGINS just 2 weeks ago...

To put it simply, that means in the previous 60 days, 146k accounts logged in... that's 146k ACTIVE accounts, NOT 146k logins...


Don't ignore it again... it's just going to embarass you

RBD has a remarkable ability to ignore any facts which don't neatly fit into his agenda.

I agree.. but perhaps content is not worth as much to people as you think (it certainly seems that way).

RBD: The currency devaluing does not devalue things priced in that currency.. Prices just have to increase. It's called inflation.

Correct. Robin confirmed a while back that that stat was UNIQUE logins, not total logins. That indeed means 146k ACCOUNTS logged in during that period.

Is it just me, or if things aren't going bad or getting worse, RBD just doesn't seem happy?

Let the dead cat bounce continue!!!

The way I would prefer 'inactive accounts' be defined would be this:
1) anyone inactive more than 7 days that only ever logged in once.
2) anyone inactive more than 14 days whose total number of hours online is less than the number of weeks old they are.
3) everyone else that hasn't been active in the last 21 days.

Anyone inactive for more than 60 days sounds like they count as 'abandoned' not 'inactive'.

It would be interesting to see the total number of UNIQUE accounts logged in per day.


RBD- The only reason I can see the number of inactive accounts being relevant (to you) is if someone were to post the total number of L$'s rusting away in their inactive pockets... which are likely never to circulate again, so it can be considered 'out of the float'.

Otherwise, who cares about inactive accounts? That's marketing fluff.

Sure, there are probably more 'inactive' accounts, last online 60 to 90 days ago, than there are total accounts from the first year and a half of SecondLife's existance. How is this relevant to anything?


--
'Average number of UNIQUE logins per day' can't be derived from stats about the total population size, the active in 60 day population size or the min/max concurrent login counts per day. It's pointless trying.

I find it highly amusing that RBD (of all people) brought up the vast population of inactive accounts - those that haven't logged on for a long time, since the existence of these dormant (yes some may as well be called "dead" accounts is also a massive, but un-accounted for SINK - if there are lindens stuck in these accounts, they might as well not exist, even though theoretically they could all log on and put their lindens on the market, the vast majority never will, and LL doesn't count it as a sink unless they actually kill the account (dissolving all the assets). If you fly around some of the former First land areas, you're likely to see many half finished build (some w/ ban lines) sitting there - any premium who say, signed up for a 1Y account, with all intention of using their account, but got bored, etc... would still be drawing a $L500 stipend, but in all likelihood never use it - it'll just sit there in their account - at least until LL tries to bill them again and they get no US$ and shut off the account - but that can take up to a year - so there is up to $26,000 per dormant premium sitting there in that pool, that will likely be destroyed down the road.

I'm just a guitar slinger / scripter, etc. and don't want to pretend to have any answers to this stuff - but RBD doesn't even have the right set of questions. I find it funny that he loves to trot out "Econ 101" and "Dead Cat Bounce" and keeps hammering on about the couple things he thinks he understands, but the SL economy is way past the understanding of someone who can only think in terms of basic real world "Econ 101" there are a lot of twists to this economy that people trying to apply real world theory keep tripping over because of al the baggage they are bringing in. I'd say it's pretty clear that the recent slide in the economy was mostly a "run" caused by psychology and manipulation by a few big players and our own little RBD/Jamie crowd shouting every time the L$ slid a point (and even when it wasn't).