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L$ down to $3.89 USD per 1,000

Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-05-2005 06:13
I'm stymied as to why the L$ continues to fall drastically against the USD.

Just a week or so ago it was up to USD $4.36... thats a slide of 11%.

Time to buy?
Eboni Khan
Misanthrope
Join date: 17 Mar 2004
Posts: 2,133
05-05-2005 06:18
Interesting. The Buy list is much shorter than it used to be.
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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-05-2005 06:26
Prok, could this be the materialization of your much hyped "land bubble" theory?
Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
Join date: 5 Apr 2004
Posts: 1,228
05-05-2005 06:45
From: Jamie Bergman
I'm stymied as to why the L$ continues to fall drastically against the USD.

Just a week or so ago it was up to USD $4.36... thats a slide of 11%.

Time to buy?


Sellers are running over each other, trying to get their orders filled.

Long term, I'm confident that it will track back up. In fact, I have taken this as a buying opportunity, and am considering pouring some more of my US$ into GOM to do so.

There are some who, I'm sure, will point to GOM and insist that the sky is falling. I don't share that opinion.

- Ace
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Cubey Terra
Aircraft Builder
Join date: 6 Sep 2003
Posts: 1,725
05-05-2005 06:49
From: Ace Cassidy
Long term, I'm confident that it will track back up. In fact, I have taken this as a buying opportunity, and am considering pouring some more of my US$ into GOM to do so.


You're absolutely right, Ace. GOM rises and falls, and has done this before. If I were interested in earning some US$ on GOM, I might consider buying L$ now and selling it off when it eventually rises again.
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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-05-2005 07:01
I'm hopeful that the low GOM price will boost sales :-)
Beau Perkins
Second Life Resident.
Join date: 25 Dec 2003
Posts: 1,061
05-05-2005 07:07
Last I checked it was already back up to 3.98.
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Ardith Mifflin
Mecha Fiend
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,416
05-05-2005 07:10
From: Jamie Bergman
I'm stymied as to why the L$ continues to fall drastically against the USD.

Just a week or so ago it was up to USD $4.36... thats a slide of 11%.

Time to buy?


You seem to post these alerts a lot. It's actually somewhat useful, because it reminds me that I should check GOM more often.

However, please try and keep the posts in the Land & Economy forum... unless the L$ starts trading at $0.20 per and Ace has just jumped from a 20th floor window in a virtual Black Tuesday. Otherwise, it's nice to be able to fliter things by the relevant topic.
Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
Join date: 5 Apr 2004
Posts: 1,228
05-05-2005 07:16
From: Jamie Bergman
I'm stymied as to why the L$ continues to fall drastically against the USD.

Just a week or so ago it was up to USD $4.36... thats a slide of 11%.

Time to buy?


And actually, you're just posting the extremes of the price swing. It never really climbed above $4.20. There may have been a few transactions pass by at the extreme of $4.36, but it was never really pegged that high.

And $3.89 in the opposite direction is the same thing. I would call the price now just a tad south of $4.00, since there isn't much activity on the Buy side.

Its more like a 5% decline from 4.20 to 4.00.

- Ace
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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-05-2005 08:34
I love watching the market :-)
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-05-2005 08:42
From: Ace Cassidy
And actually, you're just posting the extremes of the price swing.
- Ace


Ace, I just post what I see.
Shadow Weaver
Ancient
Join date: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 2,808
05-05-2005 08:45
Sniff, seeing this thread makes me miss ALBY...sniff.
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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-05-2005 08:47
Also, there is a TON of L$ up for sale at the $4.00 - 4.06 level.

It probably will be awhile before the L$ heads above USD $4.10 for any sustainable amount of time.
Siggy Romulus
DILLIGAF
Join date: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 5,711
05-05-2005 08:50
From: Shadow Weaver
Sniff, seeing this thread makes me miss ALBY...sniff.


LAND IS KING! CASH IS COW! IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH! SAVE ALL YOUR PRIMS AND SELL YOUR ASS!

MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY RAINBOWS SUCK!

Feel better now?
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From: Jesse Linden
I, for one, am highly un-helped by this thread
Siggy Romulus
DILLIGAF
Join date: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 5,711
05-05-2005 08:54
Cycles like this all the time - the spikes of 4.20 upwards don't last all that long and usually leave a ton of money for sale and not a lot of people wanting to purchase it..

Why? Who knows - could be the novelty of the new continent is over, as it was with the snow sims and jungle sims.... Just sit and wait -- it will go even out again and wait for the next big thing...

Siggy.
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From: Jesse Linden
I, for one, am highly un-helped by this thread
Lordfly Digeridoo
Prim Orchestrator
Join date: 21 Jul 2003
Posts: 3,628
05-05-2005 09:08
Well, there's no longer a high demand for land, now that the new continent has been filled out. The land market's prices will also start to go down, to the regular prices of 5-7 lindens per square meter.

Land sales directly impact the linden dollar's value, as that's the only thing in-world with any concrete value.

LF
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Aimee Weber
The one on the right
Join date: 30 Jan 2004
Posts: 4,286
05-05-2005 09:13
From: Siggy Romulus
LAND IS KING! CASH IS COW! IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH! SAVE ALL YOUR PRIMS AND SELL YOUR ASS!


Siggy for a moment there you were starting to sound like my hero Gene Ray talking about this Time Cube

http://www.timecube.com/
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Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
05-05-2005 09:14
From: Siggy Romulus
LAND IS KING! CASH IS COW! IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH! SAVE ALL YOUR PRIMS AND SELL YOUR ASS!

MONEY MONEY MONEY MONEY RAINBOWS SUCK!

Feel better now?


You forgot the obligatory "Gordon Gekko" quote. He tended to sprinkle those in there liberally as well.
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-05-2005 09:22
From: Maxx Monde
You forgot the obligatory "Gordon Gekko" quote. He tended to sprinkle those in there liberally as well.


I'll help out...

"Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right." -G. Gekko
Siggy Romulus
DILLIGAF
Join date: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 5,711
05-05-2005 09:31
From: Aimee Weber
Siggy for a moment there you were starting to sound like my hero Gene Ray talking about this Time Cube

http://www.timecube.com/


End Timeballs - Start Timecubes!

Stop your evil ingorance and accept balless truth! Single harmonious turning of the great world thing-a-ma-bob is absolute! Not accept cubic harmony is dumb ass and evil!

That guy is a flipout! I love it.. it's like a little window in time that lets you see where certain posters may wind up in a couple of years :)

Siggy.
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The Second Life forums are living proof as to why it's illegal for people to have sex with farm animals.

From: Jesse Linden
I, for one, am highly un-helped by this thread
Aimee Weber
The one on the right
Join date: 30 Jan 2004
Posts: 4,286
05-05-2005 09:36
From: Siggy Romulus
That guy is a flipout! I love it.. it's like a little window in time that lets you see where certain posters may wind up in a couple of years :)


Yup. You're reading my mind ;)
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Buster Peel
Spat the dummy.
Join date: 7 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,242
05-05-2005 09:39
There is a bit of a money supply problem -- too many L$. If you look on GOM at the total number of open L$ sell orders vs. the total number of open buy orders, throwing out the extremes (i.e., buy orders @ 5 cents), there are many more sell orders than buy orders. I never counted before, so I don't know if this is "normal", but it seems not.

I think that over time, as the total L$ supply grows, the percentage of the money supply that is represented by open orders on GOM will probably shrink. The larger the total money supply relative to the open GOM orders, the more volatile the exchange rate is likely to be.

If 1% of the money supply stampedes to GOM in a panic, the effect of that on exchange rates would depend on what the normal percentage of the money supply turns over on GOM. For example, if 10% of the money supply turns over on GOM every day, then 1% of the money supply stampede would make it 11% that day, which would have a very small effect. But if 0.001% of the money supply turns over every day, then 1% would have a HUGE effect – that would be a crash. (This is how market crashes happen.)

Obviously, a VERY small percentage of the L$ supply is for sale on GOM, so it takes a VERY small percentage of the free L$ in SL to move that market. (Of course there are other sites that do exchange, but I think the GOM is the benchmark.)

In the past, Linden has said the target exchange rate is US$4 per L$1000. (Actually, they didn’t call it a “target”, but central banks usually don’t. “We’d think an exchange rate of X” is a VERY strong statement though.)

I would be very surprised if Linden doesn’t devalue the L$ over time, because as it is, they pay out more via stipends than they take in via subscription fees. I really don’t see how that is sustainable.

Buster
Shadow Weaver
Ancient
Join date: 13 Jan 2003
Posts: 2,808
05-05-2005 09:55
From: Buster Peel
I would be very surprised if Linden doesn’t devalue the L$ over time, because as it is, they pay out more via stipends than they take in via subscription fees. I really don’t see how that is sustainable.

Buster


<<<BLINK>>>Excuse me????

Sorry to break a big bubble here but LL creates the money they dont take anything away from their incomming revenue.

GOM and IGE and even Anshe are third party sites thus LL does not barter in exchanging RL Cash so please tell me how in the hell are they paying us anything?

Shadow
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Everyone here is an adult. This ain't DisneyLand, and Mickey Mouse isn't going to swat you with a stick if you say "holy crapola."<Pathfinder Linden>

New Worlds new Adventures
Formerly known as Jade Wolf my business name has now changed to Dragon Shadow.

Im me in world for Locations of my apparrel

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Ace Cassidy
Resident Bohemian
Join date: 5 Apr 2004
Posts: 1,228
05-05-2005 10:18
From: Buster Peel
There is a bit of a money supply problem -- too many L$.


I'm not convinced that this is true.

About 6 months ago or so, the Lindens addressed this very problem in two ways. First, they reduced the weekly stipend by reducing the ratings bonus. And second, they reduced the L$ being spent for event support.

This had an immediate impact on the GOM prices, and the L$ went from about $3.75 to the $4.20 level.

The only other means of reducing the L$ supply would be for the Lindens to denominate more land auctions in L$, and that would start to cut into their corporate bottom line, so I don't see that happening anytime soon.

I still think this is just a temporary blip, and the L$ will soon be on its way back up.

- Ace
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Kathmandu Gilman
Fearful Symmetry Baby!
Join date: 21 May 2004
Posts: 1,418
05-05-2005 10:35
Ye gods.... add some clip art from an old phone book and you have a good broshure from the Church of the Sub-Genuis. Just needs a mention of Bob, slack and the Fist of Removal to be perfect. This guy has more screws lose than a Soviet era Zaporozhets.
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