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The L$ is Sick

Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-20-2005 08:46
Check the chart at GOM. Not a pretty picture. The L$ is bleeding to death on a dearth of buyers and a glut of sellers. The supply/demand side offers listed at GOM point to further declines.

The L$ is one sick puppy right now.
David Valentino
Nicely Wicked
Join date: 1 Jan 2004
Posts: 2,941
05-20-2005 08:48
Yay!!!! :D
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David Lamoreaux

Owner - Perilous Pleasures and Extreme Erotica Gallery
Ingrid Ingersoll
Archived
Join date: 10 Aug 2004
Posts: 4,601
05-20-2005 08:59
I'm feeling a little under the weather myself... I wish people would stop coming to work sick. :mad:
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Reitsuki Kojima
Witchhunter
Join date: 27 Jan 2004
Posts: 5,328
05-20-2005 09:01
From: Jamie Bergman
Check the chart at GOM. Not a pretty picture. The L$ is bleeding to death on a dearth of buyers and a glut of sellers. The supply/demand side offers listed at GOM point to further declines.

The L$ is one sick puppy right now.


Kewl.
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Red Mars
What?
Join date: 5 Feb 2004
Posts: 469
05-20-2005 09:01
I can't help but feel that the collapse of the L$ would only help turn SL back into a game. Games are moe fun than investment opportunities, and have a more carefree community. I would more than welcome the ruination of the commercial land market.
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Lianne Marten
Cheese Baron
Join date: 6 May 2004
Posts: 2,192
05-20-2005 09:05
As far as I can tell, my $L1 was always worth $L1... so i'm not sure what the hubbub is. But maybe there will be less dresses for $L500 now.

Hah, that made even me laugh.
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Nolan Nash
Frischer Frosch
Join date: 15 May 2003
Posts: 7,141
05-20-2005 09:07
Hmmmmmm...

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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
Mathematical Logic
05-20-2005 09:14
Maybe the fall of the L$ is because of this scenario:

Many people are renting land these days as opposed to outright owning it. In the past, many land transactions at auction (or IW) took place in L$ currency. If people are not buying land, which is a L$ intensive operation, there is dramatically reduced demand for the L$.

However, the land renters (Anshe in particular) get paid rent in L$. They now have L$ they want to convert into USD. So they have increasing amounts of residual, continuous L$ cash flow. This creates a constant selling pressure.

On the buy side, less buyers (due to reduced land purchases) means a lower L$ price. The constant selling prevents any rise in the value of the L$ because buyers are already saturated.

I think this may be what is happening.
Cocoanut Koala
Coco's Cottages
Join date: 7 Feb 2005
Posts: 7,903
05-20-2005 09:20
I say yay, too.

I think people wouldn't cling so tenaciously and vociferously to their viewpoints were real life money not involved.

RL money involvement takes the "fun" out of "game."

coco
koolhand Koolhaas
Uncensored McGillicuty
Join date: 26 Nov 2004
Posts: 996
05-20-2005 09:21
No need to panic. Just plan accordingly.
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Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
05-20-2005 09:28
No big deal, the average is under 4.00, but it isn't a megacrashohnoes kind of event. Last reported average is - $3.9553 wake me up for a *real* emergency if it gets below $3.50 on the average transactions for a week :)

Really, the L$ pronouncements are amusing, but hardly harbringers of drastic financial action. And before you ask, yes I've done tech analysis before :)
Ryen Jade
This is a takeover!
Join date: 21 Jun 2003
Posts: 1,329
05-20-2005 09:28
The L$ is the main problem with SL.
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Between you, Ryen the twerp and Ardith, there's little to change my opinion here.. rather you have reinforced it each in your own ways


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Chip Midnight
ate my baby!
Join date: 1 May 2003
Posts: 10,231
05-20-2005 09:30
From: Lianne Marten
But maybe there will be less dresses for $L500 now.


Yep, they'll all be $1000 ;)
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Nolan Nash
Frischer Frosch
Join date: 15 May 2003
Posts: 7,141
05-20-2005 09:30
IGE is paying 19.90$ for 5KL$. They were at 20.25$ earlier this week. I am not thinking a 35 cent drop (.017 %) is anything to get too worried about.
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Doc Nielsen
Fallen...
Join date: 13 Apr 2005
Posts: 1,059
05-20-2005 09:33
The trick will be to buy heavily when it bottoms out.

Meanwhile, all concerned might like to consider this:
While the value (more correctly the price) has been dropping for some time, despite valiant attempts to prop it up from time to time, the recent steep slide coincides with the recent problems in SL (TP, Inventory, Crashes, Logging on).

Draw your own conclusions, mine are that a larger number of people than usual are selling up and pulling out at present, largely because they have lost confidence in LLs ability to maintain the infrastructure without which SL cannot continue at it's present level.

Anyone who doubts this might like to take a look at the property market, and check how many stores/malls in your Landmarks simply aren't there any more.

LL is going to have to be very careful in what they do over the coming weeks, as much is going to depend upon their restoring confidence among the remaining residents.

As I have said before - more infrastructure investment and maintanence - less socio-political management please LL!
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-20-2005 09:35
From: Nolan Nash
IGE is paying 19.90$ for 5KL$. They were at 20.25$ earlier this week. I am not thinking a 35 cent drop (.017 %) is anything to get too worried about.


IGE's price movements usually reflect GOM. If GOM starts to fall, IGE will act accordingly.
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
05-20-2005 09:36
From: Doc Nielsen
The trick will be to buy heavily when it bottoms out.

Meanwhile, all concerned might like to consider this:
While the value (more correctly the price) has been dropping for some time, despite valiant attempts to prop it up from time to time, the recent steep slide coincides with the recent problems in SL (TP, Inventory, Crashes, Logging on).

Draw your own conclusions, mine are that a larger number of people than usual are selling up and pulling out at present, largely because they have lost confidence in LLs ability to maintain the infrastructure without which SL cannot continue at it's present level.

Anyone who doubts this might like to take a look at the property market, and check how many stores/malls in your Landmarks simply aren't there any more.

LL is going to have to be very careful in what they do over the coming weeks, as much is going to depend upon their restoring confidence among the remaining residents.

As I have said before - more infrastructure investment and maintanence - less socio-political management please LL!


Brilliant observation. I'll bet this DOES have a lot to do with it.
Nolan Nash
Frischer Frosch
Join date: 15 May 2003
Posts: 7,141
05-20-2005 09:37
From: Jamie Bergman
IGE's price movements usually reflect GOM. If GOM starts to fall, IGE will act accordingly.

Right, to the tune of .017%, I would not call that sick myself.
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Eboni Khan
Misanthrope
Join date: 17 Mar 2004
Posts: 2,133
05-20-2005 09:37
All I can say is Yay! :D
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Barbarra Blair
Short Person
Join date: 18 Apr 2004
Posts: 588
05-20-2005 09:38
That, plus no big influx of new players from one source, such as last year's immigration from There and the earlier influx from URU and so on. In addition there is now a similar game based in Europe.

The main problem with the falling L$ is that some of us truly can't afford to play if we don't break even, which means that we will cut expenses, which will decrease the value of land, which will decrease the value of the L$, etc.
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Nolan Nash
Frischer Frosch
Join date: 15 May 2003
Posts: 7,141
05-20-2005 09:40
I think it's important to remember we just had a "lost weekend" too. Many people were afraid to buy items because of the server issues.

As for the value steadily dropping, i am not buying it. I sell to IGE regularly. They were paying approximately 20.25$ per 5KL$ 3 months ago, as well as earlier this week, and nearly all points between. The sky is not falling.
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Beryl Greenacre
Big Scaredy-Baby
Join date: 24 Jun 2003
Posts: 1,312
05-20-2005 09:43
From: Barbarra Blair
In addition there is now a similar game based in Europe.
What's the name of the similar game based in Europe?
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Dnate Mars
Lost
Join date: 27 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,309
05-20-2005 09:48
From: Nolan Nash
IGE is paying 19.90$ for 5KL$. They were at 20.25$ earlier this week. I am not thinking a 35 cent drop (.017 %) is anything to get too worried about.


You may want to check your math again. It is a 1.7% drop in price. What I think has people worried is when you look at the market, there are many more wanting to sell then there are that want to buy. Also, you need to look at a long trend line then just a few days. In the last month the value of the L$ has gone from about 4.25 to 3.95. That is a 7% drop in value in the last month. It is the trend of the falling L$ that has people worried. I myself am not worried about it. If everything goes to far south, LL will step in a correct it. For now, I am buying low :)
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From: Cristiano Midnight
This forum is weird.
Nolan Nash
Frischer Frosch
Join date: 15 May 2003
Posts: 7,141
05-20-2005 10:02
From: Dnate Mars
You may want to check your math again. It is a 1.7% drop in price. What I think has people worried is when you look at the market, there are many more wanting to sell then there are that want to buy. Also, you need to look at a long trend line then just a few days. In the last month the value of the L$ has gone from about 4.25 to 3.95. That is a 7% drop in value in the last month. It is the trend of the falling L$ that has people worried. I myself am not worried about it. If everything goes to far south, LL will step in a correct it. For now, I am buying low :)

Yes, you're correct. Doing morning math is not a good idea, especially on a friday. :) I still think it's not unprecedented, and not a valid reason to state that the L$ is in trouble. We've seen worse, that's for sure.
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Khamon Fate
fategardens.net
Join date: 21 Nov 2003
Posts: 4,177
05-20-2005 10:16
From: Beryl Greenacre
What's the name of the similar game based in Europe?

Yes please do tell.
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