Can SL survive a good competitor?

Currently I think the answer is no.

If a competing product comes along that gives the little guy more of an edge I think our small-time users are going to bail out in mass.

(My reasoning behind bringing this up is i'd like to prevent that happening, just FYI)

Comments/complaints/rotten tomatos?

Thanks

This has been discussed before, I think - that if a competitor started up, there could be a stampede of small-to-middle rated content creators from SL dashing over in an attempt to grab the famous/first-mover/"FIC" slots in the new world.

There's a few flaws: firstly, probably the competitor would have more content already existing before it started up. SL started as a purely experimental platform, whereas the competitor probably couldn't compete on those terms. Secondly, those "famous" (or whatever) slots only came into existance later in SL's life when the consumer base expanded; anyone who goes in the stampede may well find themselves stuck.

However, I doubt very much that it would hurt SL very much. A competitor could hurt SL badly by addressing some of its failings but "appealing to the little guy" isn't one of them - there aren't that many "little guys" on SL and, by definition, since they are little they're not that big a loss.

Almost everyone on SL is a "little guy".

If the little guys left, all the big guys would follow in a month... when tier came due and there wasn't anyone buying or renting to pay for it.

I think possibly no, although I'd like it to be yes. I think loyalty to SL is being eroded by a percieved lack of communication from LL, and a (just from my observations) a sense of an increasing detachment from the residents. The latter is largely a result of a change in scale I feel, hard to avoid with a resident base whose growth would exceed the growth in LL's employees.
LL has a laissez faire style which is wonderful, but at times and for many reasons people look to LL for a clear statement, a stance, or information from LL on a range of subjects, including development, social issues, the economy and technical issues. Whether it's a perception or not, it's there. Sometimes the information is there, but it's hard to find. To reach the masses, you need to take it to them, only so many will go looking for it.
Having said that, goodwill to LL still counts for a lot. They've done amazing more than they've done not so well, when you really detach yourself a bit and look at in the context of the pioneering platform that it is. And a lot of people have history, friends, partners, creations, businesses, investments and more that they wouldn't just walk away from. I think with the strong sentiments people have for SL, and LL, all hearts lost could be won back in an instant, if they just change that perception. A hearts and minds campaign, that extends beyond the forums, and into the broad community.
So on second thoughts, probably yes, unless the competitor was so damn good we just had to.

One huge problem to leave must be all the things we al produce... as it cant be transfer to your own hard disk or prob then not from that hard disk to next software.

We designers are in a way prisoners of SL.. BUT we own our SL prims.. HE HE...texture yes.. but the prims.. what I know no chance to move.. IF thats on purpose or not I dont know a thing about...

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Precisely what I see as well.

It was my motivation behind this question.

EDIT: Yes, we would have to leave our creations, but chances are most people that want to create content wouldn't have much trouble starting over if it meant things like Havok 3, Etc.

Well, what I meant is that the majority don't do business at all. They want their content to already exist. And if a competitor didn't offer content, it wouldn't interest them. On the other hand, if it did offer content, it wouldn't interest the smaller creators hoping for an easy boost.

If your business/enjoyment/etc... relies on what is trapped in SL, that's your own hook.

But I don't need a HD backup - because I have my ideas stored in wetware. Ideas and concepts are far more powerful than textures and prims.

SL is barely surviving against themselves, much less a competitor.


- Newfie

If a competitor came along that let me do more interesting things through scripts (for example, scripted animations) I'd be there today. That's the main thing that SL has for me over the competition, the ability to "script reality".

Similarly, people doing furry avs would be all over an alternative system that let you create your own avatar skeleton and mesh.

Businessfolks (and I suspect some people in the BDSM world) would be interested in enforcable contracts.

There's lots of holes in SL, and a competitor that filled them would be worthwhile even if it wasn't as good in some areas... just to give Linden Labs a kick in the pants to fill them.

It's a tautology, Lasivian.

What *is* a "good" competitor? Do you consider "There" to be a good competitor? No. It sucks.

By saying "Good" you're already pretty much stating that they would be "good competition". You are proving your statement by definition.

The better question would be, "Can anyone come up with some good competition?"

It's like Argent said, SL can be eclipsed by a virtual world that betters what it has here.

If I knew what "better" was at this point i'd be off making it, heh.

But as an example if we still have Havok 1 when Havok 4 comes out that's going to be a big detriment to alot of builders if an engine comes out using something better.

If real competition opens up and its somewhat flexible in reusing our content, alot of the big names here will setup major shops over night there (no pun).

@Lasivian: We answer this like we know what arena SL is competing IN.

I have heard SL called an interactive 3D web site platform, for example. Um.. maybe. I have heard it claimed it's the best thing since movies and television for commercials and infomercials.. ugh.

I have thought of SL as a giant "live" social and economic simulation. Um.. not bad actually. I have heard it claimed that SL is a gaming development platform.. but can't comment cos the games here don't appeal to me a bit. I have heard SL called an interactive 3D visual Instant Messenger system. Hm.. not bad either..

It is also intriguing to me what SL so far does NOT include, such as voice over internet or built-in visual and animation editing tools.

So my best current working statement is "SL is an experiment in high tech connection of like minds for fun and profit." The more competition in that area, internal and external, the better as far as I am concerned.. but who would wanna compete in THAT?!

Sounds like a new thread time...

I think the more casual users, who don't have businesses, who just use it to chat and dork around for fun, would be quite willing to switch to a similar system with faster rendering, faster texture loading, and less avatar crowd lag.

I think if something came along that delivered the particular thing someone wanted better than SL does, they'd switch; SL as it is currently is a Swiss Army Chainsaw.

I.e., someone who's a sandbox hermit who just wants to make stuff, and be able to show people that stuff, probably WOULD go for a slightly tweaked Garry's Mod more than SL.

However, I don't see anything giving ALL the freedom SL does in the same manner as SL does; it's suicide for anyone who isn't basically a R&D outfit like Linden Lab and funded by Philip Rosedale's riches.

If a competitor were to avoid the many fundamental flaws in SL then no. Just take physics for example. If we assume the number of physical objects is proportional to area, then we start to see a problem. A sim currently have to calculate all physics within a certain area. How does LL solve that problem? By making the area of sims small, and thus landprices high. The solution would be to either let each client do the physics calculations for nearby object by itself, or distribute the calculations among the client who see the same objects. Now this would likely be much harder to implement than Havok 2 and very different from how stuff works now, so I don't see it ever happening in SL.