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Second Life Moguls

Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
01-27-2006 09:01
From: Leon Ash
What are your thoughts about using Black Scholes driven Linden Dollar vs. Dollar call/put options to regulate the exchange rate?

Thanks
Leon


The Black Scholes model hasn't even been proven to work. Its simply an options pricing model thrown around in academia. The best way to regulate the exchange rate is to make L$ inflows equal to L$ outflows.
Cristiano Midnight
Evil Snapshot Baron
Join date: 17 May 2003
Posts: 8,616
01-27-2006 09:01
Aimee Weber is both the Next America's Top Model, and the new American Idol. I'm not sure she's a mogul though. Aren't those the things you things you ski on and try to jump? Aimee's not much fun to ski on. After you knock her over, you realize she's too short. Nice hills though :)
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Cristiano


ANOmations - huge selection of high quality, low priced animations all $100L or less.

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Enabran Templar
Capitalist Pig
Join date: 26 Aug 2004
Posts: 4,506
01-27-2006 09:01
From: Aimee Weber
I am the Empress of SL, because... I DRESS ... to EMPRESS!


Get it? Eh? EH?? I DRESS... TO EMPRESS!!


:mad: Fine, I will take my humor elsewhere.


Screw 'em, Aimee. I just got that call from HBO. They want to go ahead and do that one hour special. You're in!
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From: Hiro Pendragon
Furthermore, as Second Life goes to the Metaverse, and this becomes an open platform, Linden Lab risks lawsuit in court and [attachment culling] will, I repeat WILL be reverse in court.


Second Life Forums: Who needs Reason when you can use bold tags?
Cory Edo
is on a 7 second delay
Join date: 26 Mar 2005
Posts: 1,851
01-27-2006 09:04
I am SL's top mojo (jojo)


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www.electricsheepcompany.com
Cristiano Midnight
Evil Snapshot Baron
Join date: 17 May 2003
Posts: 8,616
01-27-2006 09:05
From: Enabran Templar
Screw 'em, Aimee. I just got that call from HBO. They want to go ahead and do that one hour special. You're in!


They finally agreed to do an episode of Real Sex about your strange fixation on food and the weird sexual gratification you get from typing LOL a lot?
_____________________
Cristiano


ANOmations - huge selection of high quality, low priced animations all $100L or less.

~SLUniverse.com~ SL's oldest and largest community site, featuring Snapzilla image sharing, forums, and much more.

Cristiano Midnight
Evil Snapshot Baron
Join date: 17 May 2003
Posts: 8,616
01-27-2006 09:05
From: Cory Edo
I am SL's top mojo (jojo)




You are SL's top mofo.
_____________________
Cristiano


ANOmations - huge selection of high quality, low priced animations all $100L or less.

~SLUniverse.com~ SL's oldest and largest community site, featuring Snapzilla image sharing, forums, and much more.

Cory Edo
is on a 7 second delay
Join date: 26 Mar 2005
Posts: 1,851
01-27-2006 09:07
From: Cristiano Midnight
You are SL's top mofo.


YOU are SL's top Rolo.



(<3 your caramel goodness)
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Leon Ash
Bushveld Resident
Join date: 8 Jan 2006
Posts: 146
01-27-2006 09:09
From: Jamie Bergman
The Black Scholes model hasn't even been proven to work. Its simply an options pricing model thrown around in academia.


From http://nobelprize.org/economics/laureates/1997/press.html

"This year's laureates, Robert Merton and Myron Scholes, developed this method in close collaboration with Fischer Black, who died in his mid-fifties in 1995. These three scholars worked on the same problem: option valuation. In 1973, Black and Scholes published what has come to be known as the Black-Scholes formula. Thousands of traders and investors now use this formula every day to value stock options in markets throughout the world. Robert Merton devised another method to derive the formula that turned out to have very wide applicability; he also generalized the formula in many directions."

I think the use of this model is definately wider than 'academia'?

From: Jamie Bergman
The best way to regulate the exchange rate is to make L$ inflows equal to L$ outflows.


The only way to answer this is to ask.

What is the cost of a Burger in Second Life? How does this compare the the price of a burger in the USA? How do you regulate the creation/consumption of burgers in SL?

On a slightly different tangent ... this should give you the 'true' exchange rate ;-)

Regards
Leon
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
01-27-2006 09:13
From: Leon Ash



The only way to answer this is to ask.

What is the cost of a Burger in Second Life? How does this compare the the price of a burger in the USA? How do you regulate the creation/consumption of burgers in SL?

On a slightly different tangent ... this should give you the 'true' exchange rate ;-)

Regards
Leon


No, its far simpler than that. Just make sure the number of L$s created equals the number destroyed in a certain (controlled) time period.

Thats it. The free market will take care of the rest.
Leon Ash
Bushveld Resident
Join date: 8 Jan 2006
Posts: 146
01-27-2006 09:16
From: Jamie Bergman
No, its far simpler than that. Just make sure the number of L$s created equals the number destroyed in a certain (controlled) time period.

Thats it. The free market will take care of the rest.


Darn, just when it gets interesting, I have to leave for a few hours ;-)

Do you actually believe Second Life is a free market?

Later
Leon
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
01-27-2006 09:18
From: Leon Ash
Darn, just when it gets interesting, I have to leave for a few hours ;-)

Do you actually believe Second Life is a free market?

Later
Leon


ABSOLUTELY!!!!
Logan Bauer
Inept Adept
Join date: 13 Jun 2004
Posts: 2,237
01-27-2006 09:18
Kupo..... po?

Enabran Templar
Capitalist Pig
Join date: 26 Aug 2004
Posts: 4,506
01-27-2006 09:20
From: Cristiano Midnight
They finally agreed to do an episode of Real Sex about your strange fixation on food and the weird sexual gratification you get from typing LOL a lot?


Me or Aimee?

(btw, did you see that one episode with the machines? omg, crazy)

(and hot)
_____________________
From: Hiro Pendragon
Furthermore, as Second Life goes to the Metaverse, and this becomes an open platform, Linden Lab risks lawsuit in court and [attachment culling] will, I repeat WILL be reverse in court.


Second Life Forums: Who needs Reason when you can use bold tags?
Desmond Shang
Guvnah of Caledon
Join date: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 5,250
01-27-2006 09:22
From: Jamie Bergman
No, its far simpler than that. Just make sure the number of L$s created equals the number destroyed in a certain (controlled) time period.

Thats it. The free market will take care of the rest.


Then $L would get rarer as the population grows, and the usual online world 'churn' of residents leaving (while still holding $L) would make it even rarer still.

Might be cool, though.

Get $L so rare, that each are exchangeable for clunky, real world, solid gold coins with King Philip on them.

Like pirate money! :)
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Steampunk Victorian, Well-Mannered Caledon!
Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
01-27-2006 11:43
From: Desmond Shang

Like pirate money! :)


AAAAAaaaaaaarrrrrgggggg, Matey!!!!

A Pirate's the Life for Me!!!
Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
01-27-2006 12:24
Black and Scholes suffers from the problem a lot of other models do - they assume that price action will conform to a standard distribution. It doesn't. While serial price action does have a degree of 'memory' or future action is in part based on the past, it most certainly does *not* follow the oh-so-familiar bell curve.

For one thing, most excursions past two sigma are way more common in futures and other instruments. These 'outliers' are the things that kill most systems designed to hit trends and try to make money using something stupid like crossing moving averages or some other lagging indicator.

But I've said too much.
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Cristiano Midnight
Evil Snapshot Baron
Join date: 17 May 2003
Posts: 8,616
01-27-2006 12:29
From: Maxx Monde
Black and Scholes suffers from the problem a lot of other models do


You mean anorexia, heroin addiction, and having a venerial disease that the CDC can't identify?
_____________________
Cristiano


ANOmations - huge selection of high quality, low priced animations all $100L or less.

~SLUniverse.com~ SL's oldest and largest community site, featuring Snapzilla image sharing, forums, and much more.

Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
01-27-2006 12:39
From: Cristiano Midnight
You mean anorexia, heroin addiction, and having a venerial disease that the CDC can't identify?


Fashion models, sure - price prediction models, no :)

You bastard, I spewed my water when I read that. hahahah.
_____________________
Opensim Tutorial - http://opensimuser.wordpress.com/2008/06/15/opensim-install-and-configuration-tutorial/

Run your own simulator on your personal machine!
Siggy Romulus
DILLIGAF
Join date: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 5,711
01-27-2006 12:53
From: Leon Ash
Darn, just when it gets interesting, I have to leave for a few hours ;-)

Do you actually believe Second Life is a free market?

Later
Leon


of course she does - she gets stuff that is free... and markets it!
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The Second Life forums are living proof as to why it's illegal for people to have sex with farm animals.

From: Jesse Linden
I, for one, am highly un-helped by this thread
Ordinal Malaprop
really very ordinary
Join date: 9 Sep 2005
Posts: 4,607
01-27-2006 13:04
*snurf*
Cristiano Midnight
Evil Snapshot Baron
Join date: 17 May 2003
Posts: 8,616
01-27-2006 13:12
From: Siggy Romulus
of course she does - she gets stuff that is free... and markets it!


BEST POST EVER!
_____________________
Cristiano


ANOmations - huge selection of high quality, low priced animations all $100L or less.

~SLUniverse.com~ SL's oldest and largest community site, featuring Snapzilla image sharing, forums, and much more.

Leon Ash
Bushveld Resident
Join date: 8 Jan 2006
Posts: 146
01-27-2006 13:22
From: Maxx Monde
Black and Scholes suffers from the problem a lot of other models do - they assume that price action will conform to a standard distribution. It doesn't. While serial price action does have a degree of 'memory' or future action is in part based on the past, it most certainly does *not* follow the oh-so-familiar bell curve.

For one thing, most excursions past two sigma are way more common in futures and other instruments. These 'outliers' are the things that kill most systems designed to hit trends and try to make money using something stupid like crossing moving averages or some other lagging indicator.

But I've said too much.


Maxx, agreed btw!

L
Leon Ash
Bushveld Resident
Join date: 8 Jan 2006
Posts: 146
01-27-2006 13:23
From: Maxx Monde
Fashion models, sure - price prediction models, no :)

You bastard, I spewed my water when I read that. hahahah.


Agreed. That was a seriously funny association :-)))

L
Leon Ash
Bushveld Resident
Join date: 8 Jan 2006
Posts: 146
01-27-2006 13:28
From: Ordinal Malaprop
*snurf*


Google says: Snurf is the long awaited pill form of 10X extractions of Fevizia, Palenzia,
and De la Amazon - A herbal XTC!?!?

You okay over there Ordinal?

L
Luciftias Neurocam
Ecosystem Design
Join date: 13 Oct 2005
Posts: 742
01-27-2006 13:38
From: Maxx Monde
Black and Scholes suffers from the problem a lot of other models do - they assume that price action will conform to a standard distribution. It doesn't. While serial price action does have a degree of 'memory' or future action is in part based on the past, it most certainly does *not* follow the oh-so-familiar bell curve.


How about a log-normal distribution, then?
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