Only 15% of SL sign ups continue to use it

from: http://www.thestandard.com/news/2009/01/30/exclusive-linden-lab-executives-plot-second-life-growth-interface-concerns-persist



The quote was from an interesting interview of Mark & Phillip. I'm not particularly surprised about the 15% quote. I think they are trying to work hard on stability issues despite how bad it has been lately but do you think a less complex interface would improve retention of new signups? I certainly wouldn't want a "dumbed down" interface now that I've gotten the hang of things. However, I'm hoping they will be develop something pleasing to both new and old users with a certain level of customizability. Wasn't there some sort of "redesign the interface" contest a while ago and did anything ever come of that?

Yep I agree the retention issue is multi-faceted.

I find it interesting they can come up with a 15% figure.... They must be able to rule out bots and alts then.... If you look at the stats page I don't see how they come up with 15%. Even if you use the logged-In in last 60 days it is less than 15%. We all know by now logged in number includes bots and alts. The return users is more around 1%.


Residents Logged-In During Last 7 Days 522,526

Residents Logged-In During Last 14 Days 673,827

Residents Logged-In During Last 30 Days 940,855

Residents Logged-In During Last 60 Days 1,444,530

Total Residents 16,785,531

Maybe it's just me, but 15% doesn't seem that bad. I use to work in the software industry and if 15% of people that tried the demo ended up being paid customers, things were great.

I was curious as to how they came up with those numbers as well as I looked at the stats page before I posted this. However, I'm sure they have tons of metrics that don't get published so that they can be tailored in the most favourable light. I think I read somewhere that LL estimates that 10% of residents would be considered bots .. according to whatever definition they may be using ...

Either way they are full of it on the 15% retention or the numbers they give us are wrong and they know it.

But who does the 85% of fallers by the wayside include?

People who genuinely found SL wasn't for them.
People whose computers weren't up to doing SL properly.
Bots of various kinds
People whose favourite SL pastime has been banned, like gamblers, ad farmers and ageplayers.
Disused alts. including people who've had second thoughts about their name early on.
People who have been banned by LL or stopped by partners / parents or whoever.
People who no longer have time to come on SL.

I personally believe LL has a rather unhealthy obsession with the retention rate.

Not everyone is going to like SL. Assuming that they should just seems.. well, kind of silly.

Unfortunately, the retention rate is constantly put to newbie Mentors as a measure of their success. The result of this is that many Mentors tend to flounder away from saying anything that might put anyone off SL even if they clearly wouldn't enjoy it..

Ya that. Also, they end up in Ahern or Waterhead (amongst others). Unfortunately, the tack LL seems to want to take on that is to send all the newbies to be freely mentored by non LL groups. Surely there must be a better way.

People whose computers weren't up to doing SL properly.

I think this is a huge one. And the next thing that needs to be done is make all new residents watch torleys videos. I learned more from them than anywhere, next to my mentor whose helped a great great deal.

mhmm.

I think the 15% number is closer to reality than that 1% guess. I base this on my friends list.

A lot of the newbies I talk to on Help Island offer friendship, and I generally accept, if they aren't total asshats. Every month or so, I cull my friends list.

Of the newbies on my list, about 8 or 9 out of ten will still have a blank profile after a month. To me, this indicates they aren't on SL any more, or certainly not often enough to count as a regular user. If I haven't heard from this person since Help Island, I'll drop them from my list.

I created an alt the other day and while I was about to TP myself off the island I heard a conversation between two noobs that went like this:

Noob1 : Do you think there are other worlds than this one?

Noob2 : I don't know, I'm new too. I'm sure there must be, but I have no idea where to go to find it. It has to be more than this I hope.

I pointed them in the right direct, however, my guess is that a very large percentage end their experience there.

Math not your strong point or is mine off? 1% is not so much guess. 15% would be 2,517,830 active individual users. The 7 day number would be the most indicative of active users. 1% is 167,856. Take 522,526 and subtract bots and alts and you are around 1%.

Residents Logged-In During Last 7 Days 522,526

Residents Logged-In During Last 14 Days 673,827

Residents Logged-In During Last 30 Days 940,855

Residents Logged-In During Last 60 Days 1,444,530

Total Residents 16,785,531

If it was 15% we would have over 100,000 people logged in continuously. If they want to argue each alt and each bot counts as an individual then maybe you could twist the data to 10-15%

it used to be 80% would leave..i think it's a good pace..
i'm in no hurry for more than 15% to start filling it up hehehehe

there is no failure in the attention it gets and keeps that's for sure..

EDIT: Bleh i put a 20 where it should have been 80 lol

This comes to mind...

http://www.declarepeace.org.uk/captain/murder_inc/site/pics/orange3.jpg

This is very, very, common - people lost on Help Island, even though it's now full of exit signs.

The problem is that the interface for exiting HI has been really badly designed - it's a sign saying "Ready to explore more of Second Life?", with "Click here" in small letters which fall below a viewing av's feet. And when have you ever seen a user interface where, to answer "Yes" to a question, you click on it?

I've raised this at volunteer meetings before, and nothing has been done about it.

However, I think care should be taken with the whole "newbies don't understand that SL isn't a game with a goal" thing. Don't get it confused with "newbies decide that they don't like SL because it isn't a game with a goal".

Perhaps if one could import contact lists from other places, such as their email programs, instant message programs, social networks, etc., etc. and communicate with those contacts within the SL viewer, people would have more reason to stay, since they wouldn't just be a newly created unfamiliar avatar in a place filled with strangers, a fair percentage of which are rather obnoxious.

They could invite their friends to join SL in the easiest possible way, and done properly, post screenshots for their friends to see without have to download any other applications, register at any photo storage sites. etc.

to be honest, if the first thing most people saw wasn't some naked guy running up to them asking them for sex, that 15% could probably become 20%.

I have known a few people who signed up, made an avatar, took a good look around and quit. They look at me funny now....

I was a greeter at Virtual CSI:NY, and spent most of my time there in the orientation areas. At least 25% of the new arrivals would appear, spend a few minutes there Ruthed and immobile, and then disappear. Some would repeat that cycle a couple more times before giving up. It's impossible to be certain, but I think most of those were people whose computers and/or network connections were not up to the task of running Second Life. The Ruthing, in particular, suggests that; even if the user didn't do anything the avatar would have rezzed properly if the resident was using an adequate computer.

I reckon most people start off by looking at SL out of curiosity rather than a definite intention to become a loyal resident. I was just curious when I took my first steps on Orientation Island but I was hooked very quickly.

It's hardly surprising if a lot of people don't stay in SL. Think about the number of non-SL things you might have checked out on the net but not pursued.

This.

I wonder if a demo version that resides on your hard drive that newcomers could use to learn the interface before coming into the laggy wild west of their first experience on the grid would help them.

I can't imagine the drop out or retention rate has much to do with the interface, though. I found the interface quite familiar even as a newbie -- if I can recall back that far! Of course I had played a lot of first person shooters before coming into SL, and I think I was looking for something like SL even then. (I remember playing Doom, Quake, etc. way back in the last century and my goal was to get rid of the monsters just so I could explore the levels in peace.)

I also had no trouble finding my way off Help Island and latched on pretty quickly to almost every other aspect. I mean -- if you can't look at most of the buttons and menu items on screen and try to figure out what they do, how do you operate Windows or Mac to begin with?

My biggest confusion happened when I recieved my first IM which showed up also in the chat window. I couldn't see anyone around me, didn't know about IM's and thought someone was playing a trick on me. I got sort of angry and may have lost a good acquaintance. Whoever you were, my dear lady, I'm terribly sorry. I was a complete goofball.

Goofball or not, I am still here, and I knew immediately this world is for me right from the beginning.

Let's look at the experiences of three of my RL friends, who are part of a weekly gaming session group that I belong to, and at myself. They all tried SL after finding out that I was there, and what I was doing there in the way of building/creating things. All are technologically literate, experienced gamers, in their 20's to 30's. One is single, one is a widower with a kid, and one is married with a couple of kids. None of the three are particularly interested in or impressed by pixel sex. I'm married and have a kid myself, and well over 90% of my activity in SL is G-rated. Building and other content creation is most of what I do, along with socializing with my friends on-line.

One guy gave up fairly quickly, because his computer and dial-up Internet access just wasn't up to the standards needed for SL. He's seen what it is like on a good system, on my computer. But at 1 to 3 FPS on his system, even on the lowest graphics settings, SL isn't much fun for him. And he can't afford a new computer right now, or broadband Internet access. He left, and won't be back.

A second friend initially also had the low-performance computer issues, but did give it a second try after getting a better computer. He wanted to explore and travel in SL, but found his walking and boating constantly impeded by ban lines. He eventually came to the conclusion that if you didn't create content or provide services that people would pay for, and you weren't looking for pixel sex or on-line social/dating scenes, that SL was essentially a money pit that was mostly just virtual shopping. And he does not have suitable skills for making content in SL. He left, and won't be back.

A third friend initially also had the low-performance computer issues, but did give it a second try after getting a better computer. He has some skill as an artist, and learned how to make clothing. He also got active with a couple roleplaying sims, so made some new friends right away. He has a main account and one alt that I know of, but doesn't play all that frequently. At least, I hardly ever see his accounts on-line on my Friends list. But he is still in SL, with at least one active alt. While he makes some clothes, he does it mostly in support of the RP sims, like to make simple historical-fashion clothes for their newbies to wear, and isn't a merchant selling to the general public. But he is still active, at least a year later.

-----

Then take me. I first heard of SL about the time it first became possible to cash out L$ for real money. I read a newspaper article that spent a good half a page describing SL and the economic possibilities, and the hardware requirements. My computer didn't meet the minimum requirements, so I looked no further. About two years later, a friend got active in SL, and I wanted to do roleplaying with them in SL. By then, my computer just barely would run SL, but I really wanted to make a go of it. I joined, with one free account. I had several advantages. I already knew at least a handful of people in-world, and they had other friends who were happy to show me around and teach me stuff. I knew at least one sim in SL that I could go to as soon as I finished Orientation, where I could find people interested in furry roleplaying. Since I was already into furry art and furry roleplaying, I was able to find a community here that I fit in with. I was already a skilled artist and a creative person, so learning to make content here was relatively easy for me. I immediately started to learn to make and sell clothing, assuring myself that I would only stay if I could earn enough in-world to cover any expenses that I had for being here, and gave myself 6 months to break even and recover what I had spent to that point. For me, it worked out. I now have about a dozen alts, all of which log in at least once per week, and regularly spend money for hair, shoes, clothes, and other content. All of my in-world expenses, including a quarter sim of land on a private island sim, are paid for by profits from my in-world business efforts. And I cash out a small but appreciated amount of money each month as well. For me, it's been worth the time I spend here, even though I put in as many hours per week "working" as I would if I was holding down a second part-time job in RL. I enjoy my friends and the creative opportunities here, and will likely stay for quite a while.

So, 4 people, all of them initially challenged by the hardware requirements. Two stayed, and only one is really active in SL. Yet the two of us who are active have several alts, so we would show up in the "Number of unique accounts that logged in" over any given week as between 12 and 14 "active" accounts. The two who stayed both found activities and friends in SL that they liked, and who support their interest. The ones who stayed found and became active with a community of like-minded people in SL. The ones who didn't stay either couldn't meet the hardware requirements, or did not locate a suitable community of potential friends to support and maintain their interest.