Is demand building for full mainland sims?

If they increase tier, it'll be the death knell for more than just Europeans. The game is marginally worth it for most of us, and an increase in tier, which we will not be able to reasonably pass on, will squeeze out more landowners. Maybe this is what LL wants.

A year ago, mainland sims were going for almost $4000...

Thanks for replying, Stephen.

Sorry to hear VAT has forced you out...you are one of the most ethical barons out there. This is what I suspected and was afraid of...There be rough waters ahead for the SL land economy.

Worse still, sims are currently going for around $1500 nowhere near $3000.

Actually, they didn't start ramping up that high until mid-November last year. It was caused by all the new hardware LL were getting going to fulfil the grandfathered islands, combined with the then-exponential increase in users.

My first mainland sim cost US$1550, I got it in early November. During December only 4 sims were released, if memory serves - I got my second sim just before New Years and paid US$3400 for it!



Ah well, it was always a risk with the low-margin, high volume model I used. We'll see what happens in the future, but for now I'm concentrating on my estate(s) - yes, I'm expanding there despite the VAT! I'd get back into mainland in a flash if the situation changed to make it workable, it was my bread & butter for so long, not to mention extremely enjoyable for me.

I figured you would be finding a way to survive and thrive. Glad to hear it.

I actually opened my first island just before VAT was announced - typically great timing by me!

My first mainland sim cost $75,000 L.

I tend to agree with this sentiment... Unless they do something drastic to counter it (and who knows what that might be), raising tier RIGHT NOW would cause a free for all land/market crash like we have never seen - MY opinion.

I can't see them doing this - not now - not in this current delicate market ...

If LL raised tier, I would be willing to cut ties and abandon mainland.

I agree, I don't think they are short-sighted enough to do this now. But give it a couple of months? Will LL go back to actually losing money? They could be stupid enough to raise tier, bolstered by the amount of island owners and incoming island orders.

Ironically enough, it might be what is needed to stamp out the ad farms. But at what cost...?

I'm no land barron and will probably never desire to be one. I own half a sim, which proably makes me a mid range land owner.

I think what's happening is a hold our breath, wait and see attitude. The gambling elimination [which I agreed with] and the VAT fiasco have made owning large tracts of land less desirable. Rumors are floating that LL IS planning an increase in tier soon. People are holding off.

There is also a general dissatisfaction with the way LL runs things. The drop in the land market may be an indication of this, its too early to tell though.

This may be the quiet before the storm or it may be simply a brief downturn. Who knows?

For myself, I do not plan on buying any more land. It would increase my tier from 125 to 195 and I don't see that its worth it.

If I become any more disatisfied, I will sell and just rent.

If I do that, I will probably downgrade from premium to basic as well.

Sooz

I think they will raise tier on grandfathered islands and that that will cause a furore but to raise tier generally across the board, that would really be a risky move.

I agree. To have some people paying US$195 and some paying US$350 for the same thing is pretty crazy, especially when most of that differential isn't due to taxes.

Whatever they do vis a vis tier WILL be done in the most unenlightened, arrogant, capricious and arbitrary way imaginable. On that, I think we can all agree.

Sooz

Well, the move to raise grandfathered island tier is no secret; the only unknown is the exact date. But we all know that that's coming. The big question surrounds raising mainland tier. My feeling is, they can't be serious. There is no benefit to it if you still end up with a crappy view and no covenant. In the wake of the land market crash, they would find a lot more abandonment/selloff.

I haven't heard that rumour. Interesting though because after last November's private island price hike (and consequent drama), I fully expected grandfathered tier to be increased to the regular rate come November 2007. A twelve month period of adjustment just seemed most likely to me. Maybe it seemed most likely to others too, hence the rumour?

If no price increases occur at all by the end of November, and these rumours continue to dampen confidence, Linden Lab will probably be forced to announce their intentions one way or the other.

Interesting times....

Edit: I can't believe it's already a year since Zee Linden was appointed .. and practically every business on the grid shutdown with "closed due to Copybot" notices. No connection between those two events of course.

Well i have certainly never been a land baron but the VAT fiasco combined with sales slumping and general dissatisfaction with ll led myself, business partners and a few friends to virtually pull out altogether.

I sold off my 1/2 sim, my partners sold off even more between them, and a few friends have sold off the equivalent of around 8 sims between them at a loss which was balanced out by selling off various business assets and turned into a fair profit relative to our investments. Then of course we downgraded our accounts (i'm talking at least 12 people here, with at least twice as many in the process of doing so, and more having done so before us).

We're still selling items via slx and supporting customers as always, but our in-world presence has been extremely minimized, me and two partners are considering renting some land but a relatively small area compared to what we had, just enough for a good sized store combining our products under a single "brand".

All the money raised during the sell-off was of course cashed out, I won't state exact figures for several reasons but all-in-all we're talking several million L$, prior to this all our profits had remained in game, and I must admit we were pretty big spenders.

Like I said I know of quite a few others in the process of doing the same thing, with this much L$ being taken out of the game, and big spenders leaving, or at the very least spending a minimal ammount, it can't be good for the sl economy.

It's a real shame because sl can be an incredible experience but from what i'm seeing more and more people are getting tired of being hit with one hurdle after the other, from drops in sales, disappearing inventory, and repeated crashes, to the lindens poor handling of things and blatant disregard of residents interests and opinions.

There are multiple other virtual worlds being worked on and possibly a lot sooner than the lindens think sl will have some serious competitors, especially for the European & Asian markets. As much as I hate to say it if things continue the way they are going I strongly believe that sl will fade into the background when the market becomes more competitive, myself and two partners are lucky enough to have previewed a couple of the "next generation" virtual worlds and from what we've seen things definitely look bad for sl unless some radical changes are made, and sooner rather than later.

Myself and my partners don't intend to give up on sl completely, at least not yet, hence looking at renting a small amount of land for our stores, but we certainly won't be making any significant investments in it either unless things start to change, and I truly hope they do.

~JC~

Wow, Johnny.

I pose a question: do you think these new virtual worlds will handle things much differently from LL? Identity verification, I believe would be different....but VAT? Gambling? LL is making some important mistakes that other worlds are most certainly paying attention to. But when it comes to the final outcome, what will really be different? These worlds ARE, first and foremost, businesses that are going to try to survive.

Since I am from Europe, mainland land business is not an option for me neither. It's over for europeans in the way we have seen it till now. So only option available is cash out and examine other business ideas or business activities in SL.

So i suppose the gap of few europeans leaving the party will be covered by new and older land dealers that will become bigger.

I will stay though around to examine my options and market again in the near future. Who knows. Maybe i will move to the moon . I hope they don't have Vat there . lol

Just to add here, that with the EU directive, no matter what the company is and where it resides, if they serve EU citizens, then VAT has to be applied. So if a company wants to go global and be a legal business entity, then they should apply VAT to EU residents. We can't avoid this. So i don't believe any other company or virtual world could get away with VAT issue so easily. Most possible they will do the same as LL did. Start small, not pay VAT and when they become bigger they will have one day to comply with EU rules.

If I was LL, I would print out this post, blow it up to poster size, call a company meeting and say "We are in big trouble here, folks. What can we do to save this company?"

Ok, so now we have the avatars who are #4 and #6 on the list of the most mainland sims purchased who have been kind and forthcoming enough to say for the record that their days of buying mainland sims are over. I think I'm getting my answer as to why full sim prices are not higher despite the fact that LL has slowed the amount released to next to none.

Looking back at that post I realize it turned into something of an essay, it's so easy to just keep typing and not realize how long a post has become

Because the companies we've been testing for are keeping things close to their chests I can't reveal too much, not least because I signed confidentiality agreements. That said I can say that VAT and gambling amongst other thing will be handled very differently, and actually with profit in mind.

Like many people have been saying VAT is usually included in a service cost and not made in addition to it, in general businesses would usually absorb the cost simply making a higher profit on customers from non-VAT paying countries, ll will likely be the only one to handle it the way they have. This of course is much easier for more established companies who have other income streams than just the virtual world, and have a bit of foresight.

Online gambling is legal in much of the world and this will be taken advantage of, unlike in sl it will not be something that has to be restricted in such an extreme way, it's not my thing by any means but it will be a distinct advantage that competitors based outside of the US have.

A significant difference will be the inclusion of rl companies, something sl has always struggled to do, and something that will help bring income from sources other than residents.

I'll stop there before I get myself in trouble, but believe me when I say there are VERY different ways of doing things, I was surprised myself.

~JC~

Thank you for your thoughtful answer. One last question: Are you not American? I ask it because the gambling situation is one that involves credit card payments to online gambling companies. If these games cannot receive US CC payments, they are losing the single biggest market with disposable income. Clearly, some will be satisfied and will survive (America isn't the whole world). But it's hard to walk away from that kind of money.

And #1 is definitely European, although I don't know if he'll be affected by this for certain.

THAT would be a very intelligent first step. They will most certainly not do that, at least in the next six months. I don't think we can isolate any one issue. Almost everything they have done has been handled poorly - the exception being gambling. The Tao of Linden thing, no follow through, litle direction, obfuscatory communications with paying customers, huge, persistent and wide spread performance issues, all of thses things are coming together in a "perfect storm situation" that will serious hamper SL if they are not addressed intelligently by the end of 2008.

I'm not optimistic.

Sooz