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LindeX at 262 - why?

Phil Deakins
Prim Savers = low prims
Join date: 17 Jan 2007
Posts: 9,537
11-10-2008 07:32
From: Desmond Shang
I'd make a solid 90 USD USD more if I waited for the sorta random 262 rate and cashed out the month then, instead of at 264, but I prefer consistency to day trading.
It *is* consistent. It's changing down right now, and it will stay consistently down, just like it did a few months ago and it stayed down. What's happening right now is exactly the way it happened a few months ago.
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Cristalle Karami
Lady of the House
Join date: 4 Dec 2006
Posts: 6,222
11-10-2008 07:58
From: Porky Gorky
The best way to do it is to constantly have L$ up for sale rather than just sat doing nothing in world. So this is the status right now.

Exchange Rate - Total Remaining Quantity
L$263 / US$1.00 - L$1,148,017
L$262 / US$1.00 - L$14,789,113
L$261 / US$1.00 - L$4,314,367
L$260 / US$1.00 - L$2,156,359

I have sale orders at 261 and 260. based on recent history I would expect the 261 to sell at some point during Nov so have the most sat at that amount. Less sat at 260 on the off chance.

If I then need to cash out fast I'll just cancel everything and create a new sell order at 264 for an very quick transaction.

There is no point at all having L$ sat doing nothing on your avatar in world unless you plan to spend it. Leave as much on the exchange as possible to get the best price (especially with the £ being so weak at the mo.)

I wouldn't expect your sell orders to execute this month, because even though there are only a few million now, Supply Linden typically ratchets the target amount up to about 30-40 million L for sale. You will have to wait much longer than that, unless they drop from 262 to 261.
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Porky Gorky
Temperamentalalistical
Join date: 25 May 2004
Posts: 1,414
11-10-2008 08:11
From: Cristalle Karami
I wouldn't expect your sell orders to execute this month, because even though there are only a few million now, Supply Linden typically ratchets the target amount up to about 30-40 million L for sale. You will have to wait much longer than that, unless they drop from 262 to 261.



Yeah you are probably right. Last few months the multiple millions have been sat at 263, and there are occasional dips allowing for oportunistic sales at 262. However having that many L$ sat at 262 consistently is pretty unprecidented so I maybe being a bit hopeful to get a sale at 261. Still, I've been suprised by Lindex before if demand for L$ is high enough and Supply Linden is too slow to compensate. So can't rule it out.
Dekka Raymaker
thinking very hard
Join date: 4 Feb 2007
Posts: 3,898
11-10-2008 08:30
Has Supply Linden just added 10,000,000 or was that late last week?
Argos Hawks
Eclectically Esoteric
Join date: 24 Jan 2007
Posts: 1,037
11-10-2008 16:34
From: Cristalle Karami
I wouldn't expect your sell orders to execute this month, because even though there are only a few million now, Supply Linden typically ratchets the target amount up to about 30-40 million L for sale. You will have to wait much longer than that, unless they drop from 262 to 261.

I believe Supply Linden does Market Sell orders. The bulk of the 100million or so backlog on the Limit Buy side are waiting for Supply Linden or some other sucker to do a Market Sell. People that are selling large amounts are usually smart enough to use a Limit Sell and get more US$ for their L$. Whenever we see a big drop in the Limit Buy orders, there should be a corresponding increase in the Limit Sell orders as the money flippers put in their next order.
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Qie Niangao
Coin-operated
Join date: 24 May 2006
Posts: 7,138
11-10-2008 17:12
From: Ciaran Laval
Would the strengthening US dollar have anything to do with it?

If someone spends thrity quid a month they'll now be getting less Linden dollars than they were a couple of months ago.
But, if anything, this should motivate Supply to devalue the L$ versus the US$, to make the currency more stable against a market basket of currencies.

On the other hand (and maybe this is what you mean), if Supply is not managing the L$ effectively, the current increase in its value might make sense: there could be a shortage of sellers as folks delay exchanging L$s for currencies losing value against the US$.

Personally, I'd be surprised if there's a new target (especially not in this direction), and like Elanthius, I suspect Supply is just asleep at the wheel for a bit.
Oryx Tempel
Registered User
Join date: 8 Nov 2006
Posts: 7,663
11-10-2008 17:14
From: Phil Deakins
You can cancel an order? That's something I haven't picked up before. I'd imagined that those who had orders that weren't being filled for ages were stuck without their money. It gets better.

Thank you all for the information. If I'd listened to Kitty a while ago, I would have been doing it this way for a while now.

P.S. Welcome back from the OS thread, Ciaran. Is this just a visit? :)

To cancel a sell/buy order, view your LindeX Transaction History. You'll see the ones that haven't moved yet as pending, and you can cancel them, no loss to you in USD or L$. Just more logging in.
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Elanthius Flagstaff
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Join date: 30 Apr 2006
Posts: 1,534
11-13-2008 03:17
Guess we solved that mystery: /352/14/292421/7.html#post2219415

From: Zee Linden
We experienced one large real world business who ran a promotion that ended & then they sold all the L$ they collected on the exchange at once in late Sept and October. That caused the Supply of L$ to expand faster than normal prior to October and then slower than normal - even declining - in October. November has returned to normal and to ensure stability we let the L$ appreciate by one L$ and we plan to let it continue to appreciate modestly over time.

The LindeX is the absolute most fun part of my job & I've got a great team working with me on it.


Seems like a reasonable plan to slowly, maybe once per month, let the LindeX slip down a notch to where it wants to go anyway.
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Isablan Neva
Mystic
Join date: 27 Nov 2004
Posts: 2,907
11-13-2008 06:59
I would suspect that Supply Linden does whatever makes the most money for LL - not what is popular with buyers or sellers ;)


I would also suspect that with history as an indicator, they may let the rate drift back up as we close in on the holidays and there is a lot of buying activity for gift shopping. $20 USD doesn't go very far at the mall for gift giving but it goes really far in SL......
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Hypatia Callisto
metadea
Join date: 8 Feb 2006
Posts: 793
11-14-2008 14:41
From: Ciaran Laval
Would the strengthening US dollar have anything to do with it?

If someone spends thrity quid a month they'll now be getting less Linden dollars than they were a couple of months ago.


that and a flat to declining volume over the LindeX, can make the L$ rise in value. It means fewer people selling Lindenbux. Probably fewer folks have enough L$ to cash out.

Lots of land barons are dipping into savings and contracting holdings right now, renters are bailing on the expectation of higher prices... all translates to less money to be sold over the LindeX.

Mind also this is the "slow" time of year for online services as people are dealing with holiday stress, they always pick up around Christmas day and after.
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whyroc Slade
Sculpted and Blended
Join date: 23 Feb 2007
Posts: 315
11-14-2008 15:07
Anyone cash out via Xstreet? from what i can figure the sell rates are 3.5% higher than the Second Life offical exchange.. (best sell appears to be 273.1 now), the amount corresponds almost identically to the transaction fees charged by the Labs..

I did cash out with them a few times and found that allthough the paypal transfer was almost instant.. my payments to xstreet got stopped a few times which created enough hassle not to bother with it anymore although i did get my lindens back and the support was good from xstreet..

in any case thanks for pointing this out.. amazing really a couple point can make a significant difference..
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Kidd Krasner
Registered User
Join date: 1 Jan 2007
Posts: 1,938
11-14-2008 15:31
From: Isablan Neva

I would also suspect that with history as an indicator, they may let the rate drift back up as we close in on the holidays

That would contradict Zee Linden's explicit statement that they're planning on letting it continue to appreciate over time. I suppose they could make an exception over the holidays, but I think people would have more confidence if we saw consistent, slow appreciation (e.g., having the rate drop by 1L$/USD every 3-6 months), until it hits some target. If it fluctuated both up and down, there's be more speculation on both sides which could disrupt things.
Phil Deakins
Prim Savers = low prims
Join date: 17 Jan 2007
Posts: 9,537
11-14-2008 15:43
From: Kidd Krasner
That would contradict Zee Linden's explicit statement that they're planning on letting it continue to appreciate over time. I suppose they could make an exception over the holidays, but I think people would have more confidence if we saw consistent, slow appreciation (e.g., having the rate drop by 1L$/USD every 3-6 months), until it hits some target. If it fluctuated both up and down, there's be more speculation on both sides which could disrupt things.
That's what happened. About 6 months ago it dropped by 1L, and now it's just dropped by another 1L.
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