Would you buy shares in SL? Seriously.

Do they accept Monopoly Money?

Doubt we'll have to think about it for another year ... valuation won't be what LL would want until they prove the "platform" concept, which means someone would not only have to license the platform, but USE it for something meaningful. Which means a LOT of develpment, and a lot of stabilization. Takes time.

The reasons to go public would include:
-- Get rich and make your equity investors rich
-- Get money to buy other companies

I don't know how much pressure LL's equity investors can exert, no idea how much of the company they own. But they've been very patient so far, so that will probably continue so long as LL's management does not appear incompetent. (The Cory Ondrejka thing may have been a response to such a perception on the part of investors/analysts.)

If LL continues to deliver according to plan and no competitor whacks them (frankly, I don't see how a competitor starting now COULD whack them, but if someone did it sure would be amazing to see) ... well, then at some point the 2nd reason will probably be compelling, and they'll go public.

I'm more interested in Jackson's way to get 200% return inworld, myself!!

I have a theory about all this.

The metaphor of 'the long runway' has been one that the Company board has used, in terms of what the overall Project is about.

They know this isn't going to be your typical investment. Why even bother? You could buy Berkshire Hathaway instead, or, whatever. Yawn.

This is different.



Look at who you have onboard here.

Ebay founders. Visionaries. People with mind-boggling amounts of money. People who have 'made it'... people who will *never* worry about the sorts of things you and I do. People for whom food and shelter and comfort are a given; a minor footnote.

People who work on what they want to, because it matches their ideals.

This isn't *about* money. It's about history. Mankind. Global culture.

We've all been given an incredible chance. They built the grid with no clue what we would do with it, really. If anything. Then we came along and began using it.

* * * * *

There is no 'fail' for such a project as this.

If it succeeds - great.

If a competitor takes off where this grid stumbles, history will be largely the same in 20, 50, 100 years.

If it implodes into the greatest Stanford-Prison-Experiment-a-la-internet ever known, much as many of the 'centrally planned society' experiments of the 20th century imploded - that's useful to know too.


In such a context, this isn't Google - this is a global commons.

We all joke how Second Life isn't about ads - don't the corporations get it? Yet I think most of us don't get that same non-corporate spirit when it's manifested elsewhere.

* * * * *

Yeah, yeah, more b.s. from fanboi Des... smile and nod, in twenty minutes he'll be typing about catgirls and how to play a gorean for a straight-man in unwitting jokes.

Fantasy world? Crazy Des? Yeah, a bit.


You may call me a dreamer, but I'm not the only one...

One of the bad by product if you're company sells stock is that a competitor can literally buy up every part of your available stock and take over your company to do whatever it wishes including put it in the trash can if it chooses. I assume this is why they have the term "Hostile Take-Over." But I am just guessing from what I have seen and read. I never had enough money to invest in the stock market.

Several comments on the basis that Linden Labs sole asset is Second Life.

1) A substantial portion of Second Life land is owned (in the way we understand ownership within Second Life) by one avatar, Anshe Chung. It therefore follows they may have to offer her a seat on the board, as she would be able to unduly influence the profitability of the company as a whole. Taking all things into consideration, I see that as a positive in terms of the share price and return to investors.

2) For those who believe the company would be very successful - great. Buy their shares as a small investment in relation to your overall portfolio. It would be what I would call risk capital.

3) For those who believe it would be doomed - great. Short sell the shares

4) Game type shares are not especially loved by the City (and Wall Street). But there are possible exceptions. Review some case examples to gain an understanding of the issues.

5) On the point of (4) above, most computer games tend to have a limited life. I accept that (a) Linden maintain SL is not a game more a platform BUT that has to be commercially tested, and (2) Blizzard (Vivendi) with World of Warcraft appears to be an exception to some of the negative points I am raising in this post...so far

6) The Microsoft Age of Empire series is perhaps one case example of how a game can evolve over a longer period of time. It has been around since the late 1990s. Clearly, it must be a viable commercial success in some sense to Microsoft and their partners. This is perhaps an exception to (5) above as nearly 10 years of shelf life

7) Do your own research. Take this post as a possible pointer rather than formal advice

Exactly my reasoning!

Show me stability, staying-around power, ability to grow as a company, etc, etc.

Heh- I'm still kicking myself for not buying stock in some company called "Google".

If LL went public, I'd buy at the open, and sell when the hype-fueled upward trend price started slowing. Then I'd use the profits to buy an arseload of puts and wait for the inevitable fall as people realize the company's popularity is largely built on fudged numbers.

OK, probably the majority view seems to be that SL would NOT be a good buy, because of much discussed faults in the product, and the only reason why there might be serious commercial interest would be because of a 'fraudulent prospectus' (I use that phrase in a metaphorical sense of course with no hint of actual fraud, goes without saying) of exaggerated numbers.

Hmm, I've been thinking about this, and it doesn't seem to be the whole picture for me. On the other side it has a customer base of great enthusiasts who get their pleasure from improving the product without being paid for it, an addictive quality, and a world-wide reach. They are into endless innovation - too much so for some tastes (including mine) - and they are a brand leader.

Suppose we imagine money discussions inside LL. They know ALL the true figures, more than anybody else, more than us. Do we think that they are cursing themselves for being trapped in such an unrewarding investment? Well, I don't think so! They are making a decent income, and ploughing it back into expansion - or as some might put it, taking the profit in the form of salaries. Maybe they will collapse if members desert them, but I don't think they will collapse from unintended bankruptcy.

So to me it would seem a most interesting investment. (If it were on offer, which it's not). But what lay behind the question is a different question - if there were more SL activists involved in the company, would the business plan be better. That would be quite a prize.

I think if there were more residents involved in the Company, we would see a business plan much like those we've seen residents implement on the grid.

In other words: run for your lives if this happens.

Yes I would. I love the markets and sl would tempt me for sure. Reading this thread I am not too sure if I would want any of you to be my financial manager since no one seems willing to take a risk. Markets are risks. That's life. Second Life and REAL life.

No. LL would have to show me a better business mind for me to risk any real money on it. How could I take a shareholder's report seriously when they can't write coherent blogposts half the time?

I think I already bought shares when I bought my sims! I am betting on SL doing well long term so if they went public, I would definitely buy shares.

Actually, Des, I think that you are mostly right here. LL is a big vision play, and it is Philip's personal legacy.

I further think that THIS grid, our SL, alone among the many that will eventually be built from this or similar technology, is Philip's dream. The society we've created, with its very precious anonymity and even playing field, enables those who have not had such great luck in their first life to try again ... and again ... and again. In at least that way, (and many others) SL fulfills Philip's personal mission: "It's our mission to connect us all to an online world that advances the human condition."

LL will not need to go public unless they need to buy something big, so long as the original visionaries remain in control. That said, if they did, I would buy.
Oh.

my.

God.

I never realized what all the old "Not the only one" jewelry was about until reading this. I cannot believe I never recognized the quote. Thank you ... I hope I didn't delete it all. Well, I can always stop by Random's place again.
.

Gee thanks, Jig. We all know markets are risks, but we take measured risks. And most of us realize that a company that can't properly implement group chat or takes a full year to address bugs is probably not a solid investment. But the saying about fools and their money is often true - see posts about it almost every day, in here...