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Land Shepherd

Evil Land Flipper

Join date: 23 Apr 2007

Posts: 41

12-07-2007 19:31

From: Raymond Figtree

http://blog.secondlife.com/2007/12/07/land-supply-and-pricing-for-late-2007-and-through-q1-2008/

I thought the full sim auctions would be coming sooner because I saw the base was L$8.0 for parcels 512 or larger. Jack says the AVERAGE price is L$6.3. So obviously, the landbot runners must be doing VERY WELL for themselves since you and me and the other average Joes will never see land that cheap even at the base, let alone an average. They are also calculating parcels smaller than 512 into their matrix.

They seem blissfully unaware of either the impact of landbots or L$0/L$1 sales and transfers on their average price paid figure.

From: someone

"Regarding land supply.. the average mainland price per meter has continued to hold at around L$6.3/m" - Jack Linden

Nimue Jewell

Unabashedly Leggy

Join date: 20 Mar 2007

Posts: 1,745

12-07-2007 19:39

From: Land Shepherd

They seem blissfully unaware of either the impact of landbots or L$0/L$1 sales and transfers on their average price paid figure.

I wondered myself how much L$0/L$1 land sales might skew the average (in addition to land bot sales and land sales set to specific people, which also don't show in search). Still, that L$6.3 figure seems amazingly low when you consider all the land sold above the base price pulling the average the other direction.

_____________________

Prim Pincher: Low Prim Furniture for Home, Garden, & Skybox
http://slurl.com/secondlife/Nimue%20Isle/173/155/27

Raymond Figtree

Gone, avi, gone

Join date: 17 May 2006

Posts: 6,256

12-07-2007 20:00

You don't suppose it's propaganda so when people see the blog they'll go "Cool, land is still pretty cheap. L$6.3 average...I'm going to go premium."

If so, they will be in for a rude awakening when the cheapest 512 is L$8.0 a meter, or around L$8.5 for a decent area. In reality, it's only a difference of a few dollars per 512, but it's the principle of the thing.

BTW, Nim, congrats on the snow and welcome back to the forum. You were missed.

_____________________

Read or listen to some Eckhart Tolle. You won't regret it.

Nimue Jewell

Unabashedly Leggy

Join date: 20 Mar 2007

Posts: 1,745

12-07-2007 20:19

Alan Bamboo

summer

Join date: 8 Oct 2006

Posts: 161

12-08-2007 05:13

From: Desmond Shang

Interesting.

I've always subscribed to the 'seasonal' effect, though it's turning out a little differently this year than I had expected. I.e. it's happening a shade later than I thought, and softer in impact.

One thing I didn't expect that bucks the trend: the concurrency numbers are higher than I'd ever expected. What is it, 57k peak lately?

I'm sure there is a significant, significant bot population, but even so, unless ten thousand of them have been added just in recent weeks it seems we have some real population coming back in here.

The downside of a 'seasonal' effect would be this, though: watch the numbers drop significantly in northern hemisphere spring.

This is why I would be a bit concerned if there was a land market correction from our service provider at this stage. If the population dips quickly this winter, new mainland will still be around to dog us economically all summer.

There doesn't seem to be much of a seasonal effect, I don't think the winter season is going to bring in many new people??
I wonder how many SL baby boomers (born 0ct-96 to Feb 97) are going to be renewing their memberships also?
We still haven't seen October's Metrics?

Raymond Figtree

Gone, avi, gone

Join date: 17 May 2006

Posts: 6,256

12-08-2007 07:50

From: Alan Bamboo

There doesn't seem to be much of a seasonal effect, I don't think the winter season is going to bring in many new people??
I wonder how many SL baby boomers (born 0ct-96 to Feb 97) are going to be renewing their memberships also?
We still haven't seen October's Metrics?

I wonder if they are trying to keep that fact that they are having a serious economic downturn from us.

_____________________

Read or listen to some Eckhart Tolle. You won't regret it.

Ciaran Laval

Mostly Harmless

Join date: 11 Mar 2007

Posts: 7,951

12-08-2007 07:54

I sometimes change the group that my land is deeded to. I sell the land to myself for L$0 and then deed it to another group, would that constitute a land sale in Jack's figures?

Raymond Figtree

Gone, avi, gone

Join date: 17 May 2006

Posts: 6,256

12-08-2007 08:04

From: Ciaran Laval

I sometimes change the group that my land is deeded to. I sell the land to myself for L$0 and then deed it to another group, would that constitute a land sale in Jack's figures?

I think it does. How else do you explain the average he is quoting compared to the much higher base (almost 30% higher than what he says is the AVERAGE) than we see on the for sale page?

_____________________

Read or listen to some Eckhart Tolle. You won't regret it.

Ciaran Laval

Mostly Harmless

Join date: 11 Mar 2007

Posts: 7,951

12-08-2007 08:09

Well that's what I'm trying to figure out Ray, his average figure was lower than the base figure. If land transfers are counted then it's lies, damned lies and statistics territory.

Desmond Shang

Guvnah of Caledon

Join date: 14 Mar 2005

Posts: 5,250

12-08-2007 08:15

From: Alan Bamboo

There doesn't seem to be much of a seasonal effect, I don't think the winter season is going to bring in many new people??
I wonder how many SL baby boomers (born 0ct-96 to Feb 97) are going to be renewing their memberships also?
We still haven't seen October's Metrics?

Yeah, it is certainly not like last year at all.

With regard to renewals, as I understand it you have to actively cancel, or it just bills... so if that drops it means people sold off or never had their land, then took time out of their day to shut off the subscription.

So by design it may be a bit softer impact. Also, a LOT of people go month to month with premium - yeah, 120 USD vs 72 annually - why? Out of sight, out of mind maybe. So it will be interesting to see what happens this winter.

Perhaps the seasonal theory is more "people get off the computer in spring/summer" than "people choose the computer in winter". I definitely get a sense that late spring (northern hemisphere) is the quietest time in SL.

_____________________

Steampunk Victorian, Well-Mannered Caledon!

Alan Bamboo

summer

Join date: 8 Oct 2006

Posts: 161

12-09-2007 03:41

Yes for sure in the Spring we people who get winter, can't wait to get out of the house. -10 here today as the high, not that cold, but only 9 hours a day of sunlight now also...sun sets before 5pm

We people who get winter will definitely be abandoning SL again come spring.

I also wonder if renting is more popular now as well? Less premiums might actually mean more people renting now instead ?

Auction Action Imminent?
Land Shepherd Evil Land Flipper Join date: 23 Apr 2007 Posts: 41	12-07-2007 19:31 From: Raymond Figtree http://blog.secondlife.com/2007/12/07/land-supply-and-pricing-for-late-2007-and-through-q1-2008/ I thought the full sim auctions would be coming sooner because I saw the base was L$8.0 for parcels 512 or larger. Jack says the AVERAGE price is L$6.3. So obviously, the landbot runners must be doing VERY WELL for themselves since you and me and the other average Joes will never see land that cheap even at the base, let alone an average. They are also calculating parcels smaller than 512 into their matrix. They seem blissfully unaware of either the impact of landbots or L$0/L$1 sales and transfers on their average price paid figure. From: someone "Regarding land supply.. the average mainland price per meter has continued to hold at around L$6.3/m" - Jack Linden
Nimue Jewell Unabashedly Leggy Join date: 20 Mar 2007 Posts: 1,745	12-07-2007 19:39 From: Land Shepherd They seem blissfully unaware of either the impact of landbots or L$0/L$1 sales and transfers on their average price paid figure. I wondered myself how much L$0/L$1 land sales might skew the average (in addition to land bot sales and land sales set to specific people, which also don't show in search). Still, that L$6.3 figure seems amazingly low when you consider all the land sold above the base price pulling the average the other direction. _____________________ Prim Pincher: Low Prim Furniture for Home, Garden, & Skybox http://slurl.com/secondlife/Nimue%20Isle/173/155/27
Raymond Figtree Gone, avi, gone Join date: 17 May 2006 Posts: 6,256	12-07-2007 20:00 You don't suppose it's propaganda so when people see the blog they'll go "Cool, land is still pretty cheap. L$6.3 average...I'm going to go premium." If so, they will be in for a rude awakening when the cheapest 512 is L$8.0 a meter, or around L$8.5 for a decent area. In reality, it's only a difference of a few dollars per 512, but it's the principle of the thing. BTW, Nim, congrats on the snow and welcome back to the forum. You were missed. _____________________ Read or listen to some Eckhart Tolle. You won't regret it.
Nimue Jewell Unabashedly Leggy Join date: 20 Mar 2007 Posts: 1,745	12-07-2007 20:19
Alan Bamboo summer Join date: 8 Oct 2006 Posts: 161	12-08-2007 05:13 From: Desmond Shang Interesting. I've always subscribed to the 'seasonal' effect, though it's turning out a little differently this year than I had expected. I.e. it's happening a shade later than I thought, and softer in impact. One thing I didn't expect that bucks the trend: the concurrency numbers are higher than I'd ever expected. What is it, 57k peak lately? I'm sure there is a significant, significant bot population, but even so, unless ten thousand of them have been added just in recent weeks it seems we have some real population coming back in here. The downside of a 'seasonal' effect would be this, though: watch the numbers drop significantly in northern hemisphere spring. This is why I would be a bit concerned if there was a land market correction from our service provider at this stage. If the population dips quickly this winter, new mainland will still be around to dog us economically all summer. There doesn't seem to be much of a seasonal effect, I don't think the winter season is going to bring in many new people?? I wonder how many SL baby boomers (born 0ct-96 to Feb 97) are going to be renewing their memberships also? We still haven't seen October's Metrics?
Raymond Figtree Gone, avi, gone Join date: 17 May 2006 Posts: 6,256	12-08-2007 07:50 From: Alan Bamboo There doesn't seem to be much of a seasonal effect, I don't think the winter season is going to bring in many new people?? I wonder how many SL baby boomers (born 0ct-96 to Feb 97) are going to be renewing their memberships also? We still haven't seen October's Metrics? I wonder if they are trying to keep that fact that they are having a serious economic downturn from us. _____________________ Read or listen to some Eckhart Tolle. You won't regret it.
Ciaran Laval Mostly Harmless Join date: 11 Mar 2007 Posts: 7,951	12-08-2007 07:54 I sometimes change the group that my land is deeded to. I sell the land to myself for L$0 and then deed it to another group, would that constitute a land sale in Jack's figures?
Raymond Figtree Gone, avi, gone Join date: 17 May 2006 Posts: 6,256	12-08-2007 08:04 From: Ciaran Laval I sometimes change the group that my land is deeded to. I sell the land to myself for L$0 and then deed it to another group, would that constitute a land sale in Jack's figures? I think it does. How else do you explain the average he is quoting compared to the much higher base (almost 30% higher than what he says is the AVERAGE) than we see on the for sale page? _____________________ Read or listen to some Eckhart Tolle. You won't regret it.
Ciaran Laval Mostly Harmless Join date: 11 Mar 2007 Posts: 7,951	12-08-2007 08:09 Well that's what I'm trying to figure out Ray, his average figure was lower than the base figure. If land transfers are counted then it's lies, damned lies and statistics territory.
Desmond Shang Guvnah of Caledon Join date: 14 Mar 2005 Posts: 5,250	12-08-2007 08:15 From: Alan Bamboo There doesn't seem to be much of a seasonal effect, I don't think the winter season is going to bring in many new people?? I wonder how many SL baby boomers (born 0ct-96 to Feb 97) are going to be renewing their memberships also? We still haven't seen October's Metrics? Yeah, it is certainly not like last year at all. With regard to renewals, as I understand it you have to actively cancel, or it just bills... so if that drops it means people sold off or never had their land, then took time out of their day to shut off the subscription. So by design it may be a bit softer impact. Also, a LOT of people go month to month with premium - yeah, 120 USD vs 72 annually - why? Out of sight, out of mind maybe. So it will be interesting to see what happens this winter. Perhaps the seasonal theory is more "people get off the computer in spring/summer" than "people choose the computer in winter". I definitely get a sense that late spring (northern hemisphere) is the quietest time in SL. _____________________ Steampunk Victorian, Well-Mannered Caledon!
Alan Bamboo summer Join date: 8 Oct 2006 Posts: 161	12-09-2007 03:41 Yes for sure in the Spring we people who get winter, can't wait to get out of the house. -10 here today as the high, not that cold, but only 9 hours a day of sunlight now also...sun sets before 5pm We people who get winter will definitely be abandoning SL again come spring. I also wonder if renting is more popular now as well? Less premiums might actually mean more people renting now instead ?

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