Auctions finally hitting the minimum

Yeah. Personally, I think right now the only thing dumber than buying mainland just to flip it is buying a Bay City parcel just to flip it.

Agreed. You'd need an influx of the RIGHT people - for LL, that is people with cutting edge computers and the patience of Job to put up with the asset server failures.

Everyone wants to be the big AC but, they forget she diversified real quick from relying only on land which is not a finite resource in a digital world into other services and markets.

It also helps that she bought the majority of her original land for $L1 a meter.

This is a surprise?

Of *course* location matters. Teleporting and grids and all that stuff notwithstanding. Location is huge. Park that same ugly duckling region next to Bay City and watch it go for 10,000 USD.

I'm racing to roll out one of the last few Caledon regions; I can already see that it will be a sellout. In the same land market, if you think about it like that.

This is why I think the Company has finally gotten the message: 'stop rolling out anarchy land' and have tried a lot harder with things like Bay City.

Which is still pretty anarchic, but, a good step in the right direction.

* * * * *

Think about it: as estates go, 'mainland' is now only 20% of the market and falling.

One has to ask why, in a market they have invented themselves.

Um, could it be that Estate tier per sim is 33% more than mainland tier?

Caledon is not comparable, in large part because of the reputation and the theme.

There are plenty of estate rentals right now that are feeling the crunch of increased competition. But organized themes and/or reputable landlords such as yourself, Sarah Nerd, d'Alliez, Garth FairChang, etc. have a large advantage that a brand new estate owner does not.

Then our almost 30,000m will be gold!!
- no sims on 2 sides and a canal running down the lenght of the 3rd. ;]

... and yet a measly 1024 plot at BayCity worth more? lolz not in my mind. ;]

Mine either. And as speculators will find out, neither do a whole lot of other people.

Mine either. And as speculators will find out, not a whole lot of other people either.

You are forgetting about two things.

1) Unless you carry a full region of tier, you are paying waaay more for mainland.

2) People carry around a ton of unused mainland tier, as well. All the fractional bits they can't use up to the next level.

I'd make a gentleman's bet that mainland regions make a significant fraction more than private ones through this mechanism - yes, far more than 295 USD/mo.

* * * * *

Imagine paying 40 USD a month for 1/8 of a region. 8 * 40 = 320 USD

25 USD/mo for 1/16 region: 16 * 25 = 400 USD

15 USD/mo for 1/32 region: 32 * 15 = 480 USD

That's tempered a tiny bit by the premium 512m bonus... oh wait... but that costs money, anywhere from 6 to 10 USD/mo



...I also imagine a silvery, moonlit continent of 90% transparent terrain and avatars and prims, called Tierlandia... a magical, mythic continent composed of all the unused tier the mainlanders aren't using.

Lots of people have land in Tierlandia - it's bloody huge. As we travel along its shimmering roads, explore its hills and valleys and towns and cities we realise none of this exists, except in one way: All these imaginary regions are being paid for in cold cash, every month.

Sorry, but I don't think you're comparing apples to apples, Desmond. I've had a few cocktails, so please correct me if this is wrong:

People who possess some small fraction of a mainland region can own it outright and only pay LL's fees, whereas people who possess some small fraction of an estate must always rent it from someone else, with god-knows-what markup on it. You have to compare end user to end user, or landlord to landlord. You're comparing landlord to end user.

You do illustrate why it's good business, from LL's perspective, to offer up mainland in a lot of little pieces.

In which Desmond proves once again that he's got a better head for business than most.Ah, but those of us in the know rent out our plots in Tierlandia to Elanthius.

Alright, let's talk end user to end user.

For example, 2560 square meters standard, 585 prims.

Let's pretend they are both $L 4/m to get into - though private estates may win right there, just try getting decent mainland waterfront for $L 4/m.



Mainland: 6 USD / mo membership (512m included) + 15 USD / mo = 21 USD/month.

Private Estate (using Caledon's most expensive rate)

no membership required + $L 1188/wk.

$L 1188 * 4.333 wk/mo = $L 5148 a month, or 18.75 USD a month
(using $L 265/USD + 3.5% LindeX exchange fees)

Yep, 21 USD mainland -vs- 18.75 for private estate. Tier discounts kick in for the landlord and are passed down.

=============================================

Okay, let's compare services.


Premium membership = some support from the Company, it's true. File a ticket and don't hold your breath.

Land Baron: Concierge live chat or toll free number which can be accessed *immediately* if needed, encyclopedic knowledge of just about every issue a tenant may have suffered in the last two years, and approx. 100 online residents on group chat standing by to answer just about anything (people are very cool about it).

=============================================

Let's compare crisis situations:


Griefer hopping alts and giving you constant nightmares:

Mainland: file support ticket and pray.

Land Baron: Gods help any griefer if someone calls them out on the estate group channel. 'Griefer, tallyho, the hunt's afoot!'

Griefers attacking a mini-continent are like thirteen year olds with firecrackers attacking a pirate's den. They usually end up with their avatar frozen, dressed up funny (understatement) and the screenshots posted on Flikr. (Justice League we are not! grin)

=============================================

Mistakes:

Mainland, accidentally selling land for $L 1 or abandoning: PWNED.

Private estate, same issue: No problem, here's your land back!

=============================================

Ad farmers, region-crushing clubs, skanky ageplaying neighbours, &c &c

Mainland: Hullo neighbour!

Private Estate: Dealt with, and rarely are there witnesses

=============================================


There's always the issue of getting a private estate owner who is going to jerk you around, or maybe can't balance his books and keep tier paid, or can't seem to find tenants. That's the obvious risk.

But when it comes to costs, you are right, it's not apples to apples. For a small parcel holder, it's actually cheaper. With great service and no ad farms or baloney.

With larger parcels, the price advantage goes away - but if you have a quarter sim or an openspace (a fairly significant investment) now it's all the more important who your neighbours are, unless you are willing to pick up a few thousand prims and jump back into the land market on a dime.

You forgot to count the value of the stipend, which is over $4 back.

Maybe mainland has dipped below 4L per sq/m, but there's alot of uninformed sellers out there on the old mainland continent still selling.....or should i re-phrase that....trying to sell at absurb prices. I sometimes wonder how long those plots just sit there idle with just a price tag!

When i really think about it, owning residential land doesn't make a whole bunch of sense to me anymore. I use mine really as a teleport "home" for a few minutes of privacy whilst i do some reading or researching without being disturbed, I look at my own sims....and the majority of residents don't really use their homes that much for what they pay for....seems pointless to be honest.

For the last week or so, I have been scouring the snow region sims on the old continent for a decent size plot to use commercially (4-8k)...most decent plots are overpriced considering current market conditions (between 10-20+ L per sq/m)
Whilst on my travels i have seen all these homes set up on the mountainside or valleys or mountain-tops.....and they are just unused....huge numbers of homes just sitting there accumulating monthly tiers not doing anything or even worst still......empty land plots!. That's when it finally brought it all home to me!

I know when i bought my very 1st plot of land (1/4 sim) which i've kept for sentimental reasons, i use to spend about 50% of my online time there.....so I considered it good value for money having a base within SL. Nowadays at my main residence (1/2 sim)....i'd be lucky if i spend more than a few hours in total for any given month. It visually looks appealing and all that.....but that's a lot of USD's each month just to be looking at the same canvas.

What i've noticed in last month or so....and also feedback from other Estate owners, are the number of residents that are selling land off cheaply or abandoning their lands or stopped renting. IMO the bubble has burst! I have a feeling RL economics is starting to kicking in......and that people are generally effected by increase prices to car fuel, energy costs and food prices.......the amount of disposable income is diminishing and they are having to tighten their belts.

Generally Desmond it's because unlike you, Linden Lab haven't really wanted to be landlords and it shows when you travel around mainland.

However zoned mainland is coming and I have a feeling that these failed auctions will accelerate that, which concerns me because Linden Lab have a habit of not thinking through the implications of their decisions, or not appearing to think them through anyway.

Zoning existing mainland (which hasn't been ruled out) would be very very messy. Zoning new mainland will rub some estate owners up the wrong way, so it's going to be a bumpy ride but I feel zoning new mainland is the way to go.

I'm not sure why you're taking the LindeX exchange fees into account, they don't apply for people buying L$. Although you can limit buy at L$275/1, most people are going to get their L$ at L$265/$1.

L$5148 / L$265/$1 = $19.42

Stipend value is $4.90/month so it's suddenly $16.1 for mainland vs $19.42.

what's not being taken into consideration is preference. for a few dollars more (if that's even accurate), i'd rather be in total control of my own land. no one will pull a rug out from under me. the media will be my choice. the build, my choice. the theme, my choice, regardless of surroundings. no limits on mainland, outside of PG.

so, i can buy 8196m estate land for L$1 and pay your L$40US tier, and you can evict me with no notice at your whim.

or, i can buy my 8196m for L$55k and pay my $40US tier, and no one can tell me wut to do.

hmmmm i don't really see the question mark here. all that money talk is just smoke and mirrors. it's all about preference.

estate owners who rent out land will, of course, say/do anything to keep noobs, noncommittal and uncertain tenants coming in.

mainland owners will, of course, say/do anything to keep noobs and land flippers looking at their land.

as a buyer/renter, a person needs to not fall for this 'media hype' approach your estate landlords are spewing. i respect the artistic builds, and the dreamy themes, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with pursuing mainland. the more i see an estate owner, especially a big name one, pushing for 'rent only is the way to go', the more suspicious i become.

Buy! BUy! BUY!
Cool to see final proof that land is worth squat, even to adfarmers and land flippers.
Time to drop the Auction start prices and tier again.
Then I might buy a mainland sim if it were in a good location with a road and ocean access.

Yeah, just a minor issue. I lost around $250.00 USD to that little isue of the private estate owners who can just disappear or reclaim land for no reason, without any recourse for me.

Until there is a means of recourse against private estate owners who might want to rip me off, I will never, ever spend more than $1L to "buy" on a private estate, and will recommend to anyone who will listen that they do the same.

With all of Linden Labs's problems, I at least am fairly confident that they won't outright steal my money. And even if they tried, at least they aren't anonymous, allowing me to take action against them.

I agree. In principle, zoned mainland seems like a great idea, but LL will find a way, probably through neglect, to ruin it. A covenant or zoning or TOS policy is only as good as its enforcement. LL has proved again and again, they only enforce their TOS when not doing so impinges or threatens THEIR interests.

Look at the adfarm problem. They got sick of residents complaining about adfarms, so they put a line about them in the TOS to ban them, but they don't enforce that ban, so they are still here, in roughtly the same numbers as before. LL claims the problem is too complicated to solve, but the truth is they just don't care. If they really wanted to minimize adfarm presence in SL, they would find the ten most complained about farmers, and permaban them, seizing their assets. Do this once a month for 6 months and you'd rid SL of at least 90% of its adfarms through fear of asset loss alone. Same thing with spam and other types of bots which LL clams they wish to minimize. They don't use the permaban on them because they don't seriously impact (at least in LL's belief), LL's operations.

Those buying in Bay City are going to find their land losing value quickly, when LL doesn't do a blessed thing to stop spammers and extortionists. Same will be true of zoned mainland. If LL really wanted these to work, they'd actually put in the minimal effort now, to set a precident when there are still only a handful of Bay City sims to patrol, but already, I hear folks complaining about spinning signs and other garbage ruining their investment. In their defense, LL was smart enough to dangle the carrot of protected mainland to make money on Bay City auctions, but in the long run they will loose out if they don't enforce their own rules.

Deduct L$300/week Stipend from the mainland bill.
That's about US$5/month
Yep, 16 USD mainland -vs- 18.75 for private estate



Then..
Go upmarket for the once-off cost of protected ocean sim on one or more boundaries.
The East of Corsica and all around Gaeta have at last started to meet demand for water.
Even if you have to pay L$20/m, it's just once-off. You can get it for less.

Griefers?
Only twice in a year and a half have I had to eject anyone, and they were just messers as opposed to determined 'griefers'.

The only big downside to Mainland is the possibility of ban lines appearing on an unprotected boundary whan a new neighbour moves in. Some talk and/or gentle persuasion can generally get these turned off, but they are one of LL's most asinine creations.


And there's freedom
I look at sunsets and moon over an empty ocean.
Well, maybe sometimes not quite empty, as it's real (virtual) protected ocean that one can use for boating or flying over.
Most private islands might have beachfront parcels, but for most of them, that boat on the dock can never go anywhere. It's a decoration.



At the end of the day, you choose your comfort level for land use in SL.
A few bucks per month either way between options isn't really a major concern when stacked up against the fun.

Ah! I forgot all about stipend, my fault.

5 bucks a month these days? And yeah, I forgot that buyers don't pay the 3.5% also - it's not exactly often that I buy $L. Or the fact that there are people paying month to month membership - what's that, 10 bucks a month?

Even so, like mentioned above - not a huge price difference. I have the old $L 500 stipend on Des - but I keep forgetting it, it gets kinda lost in the transaction volume.

As for anonymity, it's not something I broadcast on forums but there's plenty of people inworld who know who I am - not a huge secret. After some freaky prank phonecalls that scared my kids a few years back I learned not to plaster my RL name all over the place around anonymous internet types - so you won't be seeing me put my name out here. Not that it matters. A subpoena would out pretty much anybody, if it came to that.

As for land barons that ripped 250 USD or whatnot off of people - I can't speak for those types. I'll put it this way: with the number of regions I have now, ripping off a measly 250 USD from someone would be about as stupid as a guy with a good job and career holding up a liquor store. A scammer would have to steal 250 USD from someone every two days, indefinitely, just to keep up with Caledon's income through good business.

I do personally believe private estates are by far the better way to go - and if I didn't think that, I'd have no business running one.

* * * * *

The mainland has a few bright spots, but in general it's not even close to a well managed estate. Nor can it ever be - it was sold without covenant, with that understanding.

The market seems to agree. I've run a waiting list for land for literally years now, and I have yet to toss someone out for anything besides failure to pay tier.

Sling, you mentioned the mainland's ability for sailing and flying - check out Holly Kai (one of Caledon's neighbours) - it's wonderful for sailing over there - Holly Kai, the New England regions, all that. Those regions are expanding too.

Even Caledon is part of a 60+ region cluster that is now over 4 million square meters. Residents who have been in Caledon over a year still haven't seen it all - it's huge. The bar has been raised considerably - most private estates have evolved way beyond a single region private estate with useless waterfront.

At the end of the day - for whatever reason: personal, business, educational, corporate - 4 regions out of 5 aren't mainland. That's people speaking with their dollars, right there.

It's horses for courses.

Although great tracts of mainland can be deadly ugly, I love the vibrancy of the thing as a whole.
The upside of no zoning is that it facilitates creativity.
Even in the most blighted areas, I've come across wonderful stuff.

It's a win-win situation.
I can feel smug and superior when I see tasteless and ugly.
I can be bowled over by some truly wacky jewel.
When I look around crazy mainland, I see stories of real people in the raw. It's way more difficult to get that in a strictly themed estate.

I see SL mainly as a very interesting facilitator of end-user content building on the Net.
I think that unzoned mainland facilitates and provokes free thinking.


At the same time I recognise that
- many parts of the mainland are only useful for their skies
- most people probably want an environment that feels comfortably RL-ish.