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fighting bad numbers with worse numbers? |
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Felix Oxide
Registered User
Join date: 6 Oct 2006
Posts: 655
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10-05-2007 13:58
I did notice this whilst trying to give the most charitable possible interpretation of Ginsu's blog entry:To which the natural response seems: "well, why don't you just ask Yankee how they got their numbers instead of publicly implying that they are spreading 'misinformation'?". I too was wondering this myself when I was reading the blog post. |
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Argos Hawks
Eclectically Esoteric
Join date: 24 Jan 2007
Posts: 1,037
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10-05-2007 15:11
*sends OP and Ginsu back to Diff EQ* Nobody deserves to be sent back to Diff EQ! Not even a Linden-landbot-griefer-camper. /me thanks God that D's get degrees. |
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Vlad Bjornson
Virtual Gardener
Join date: 11 Nov 2005
Posts: 650
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10-05-2007 16:55
It's pretty obvious that the stats were meant to indicate the 974,000 unique users who logged into Second Life in August. If those users spent a total of 23 million hours in SL during that same time period then that is an average of 23 hours per unique user.
Check out the SL Economic stats page: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy_stats.php The number of unique users who logged in in the last 30 days is currently at about 934,366. Slightly less than the number quoted for August. Of August has 31 days verses this current figure for 30 days. And here is a page that list the number of user hours in SL: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy-graphs.php 23,000,00 hours in August / 974,000 unique users in August = 23 hours per unique user for the month of August Makes sense to me. _____________________
I heart shiny ! http://www.shiny-life.com
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Cee Edman
The Dude Abides
Join date: 2 Oct 2007
Posts: 283
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10-05-2007 20:59
Sometimes someone is so confusingly wrong that it is even hard to figure where the error actually lies. /me nods sagely -- yes, student Malachi has indeed learned the essential principal of "How to Lie With Statistics 101": If you can't impress them with facts, baffle them with bull. Grade: A |
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Peggy Paperdoll
A Brat
Join date: 15 Apr 2006
Posts: 4,383
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10-06-2007 00:48
"How to Lie With Statistics 101": If you can't impress them with facts, baffle them with bull. Grade: A I always thought was "dazzle 'em with brillance, then baffle 'em with bullsh**"  |
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Argus Collingwood
Totally Tintable
Join date: 5 Dec 2005
Posts: 600
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10-06-2007 00:53
Yeah, but, if the shoe fits....  LOL If the shoe fits, it must be attached to yer posterior  |
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Qie Niangao
Coin-operated
Join date: 24 May 2006
Posts: 7,138
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10-06-2007 04:59
Keep in mind that The Yankee Group gets paid to do these "studies" by other companies. If one is actually in the reported-upon business, it's usually easy to guess who ponied-up; in the case of the SecondLife report, though, I wouldn't even hazard a guess. |
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Colette Meiji
Registered User
Join date: 25 Mar 2005
Posts: 15,556
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10-06-2007 07:24
It's pretty obvious that the stats were meant to indicate the 974,000 unique users who logged into Second Life in August. If those users spent a total of 23 million hours in SL during that same time period then that is an average of 23 hours per unique user. Check out the SL Economic stats page: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy_stats.php The number of unique users who logged in in the last 30 days is currently at about 934,366. Slightly less than the number quoted for August. Of August has 31 days verses this current figure for 30 days. And here is a page that list the number of user hours in SL: http://secondlife.com/whatis/economy-graphs.php 23,000,00 hours in August / 974,000 unique users in August = 23 hours per unique user for the month of August Makes sense to me. Neither Ginsu's quote nor the Economy stats page uses the word "Unique" to describe the User Logins Ginsu uses "User Logins" and the Economy Stats page uses "Residents Logged In" That being the case I'm not sure we can infer these are unique log ins at all, but rather Accounts that were logged in. The Average Account was logged in 23 hours per month. |
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Malachi Petunia
Gentle Miscreant
Join date: 21 Sep 2003
Posts: 3,414
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10-06-2007 07:46
Ginsu uses "User Logins" and the Economy Stats page uses "Residents Logged In" That being the case I'm not sure we can infer these are unique log ins at all, but rather Accounts that were logged in. I think when the VP of Business Development - that is, the guy who goes stumping these numbers to other firms - can't even get his terminology straight that we can infer nothing at all from the statements. The number could well be "number of raisins 1km Northeast of LL's offices" for all the confidence they inspire. Recall that these are self-reported, unaudited, unauditable numbers from a firm that manages to show about the same "US$ Spent Last 24h" on days when almost nothing works as on days of things mostly working. addendum: Out of curiousity, I just reloaded the secondlife.com home page a few times and found the US$ Spent number to cycle randomly through "$1,072,594", "$1,072,553", and the unitless "228,749". Seems they can't even invent convincing numbers. |
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Talarus Luan
Ancient Archaean Dragon
Join date: 18 Mar 2006
Posts: 4,831
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10-06-2007 09:25
LOL If the shoe fits, it must be attached to yer posterior Boy, don't I know that! Except, in my case, it isn't shoes, but my wings, head, feet, tail, body. It looks like I had been given a singularity suppository. :-/ |
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Vlad Bjornson
Virtual Gardener
Join date: 11 Nov 2005
Posts: 650
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10-06-2007 09:54
From the economic stats page:
"A Resident is a uniquely named avatar with the right to log into Second Life, trade Linden Dollars and visit the Community pages." So the Population total is the 'Number of uniquely named avatars logged in during the last 30 days." _____________________
I heart shiny ! http://www.shiny-life.com
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Colette Meiji
Registered User
Join date: 25 Mar 2005
Posts: 15,556
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10-06-2007 09:59
From the economic stats page: "A Resident is a uniquely named avatar with the right to log into Second Life, trade Linden Dollars and visit the Community pages." So the Population total is the 'Number of uniquely named avatars logged in during the last 30 days." A Uniquely named Avatar is not a Unique User. A Unique User could be several Residents. Since it says Uniquely named Avatar - it does not say an Avatar with a Uniquely named Account holder. |
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Vlad Bjornson
Virtual Gardener
Join date: 11 Nov 2005
Posts: 650
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10-06-2007 12:12
A Uniquely named Avatar is not a Unique User. A Unique User could be several Residents./QUOTE] This is true, but it doesn't really change the meaning of the stats. Even if every USER had 10 RESIDENTS that logged in during the 30 days, there is still a USER behind every RESIDENT. So the average hours spent per unique RL person is higher than the 23 hours/month. I guess it just depends on how you define a USER. With LL's definition there were 974,000 users logged with an average of 23 hours each. With your definition of a USER as an individual RL person there would be fewer than 974,000 users logged in with more than 23 hours each. _____________________
I heart shiny ! http://www.shiny-life.com
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Malachi Petunia
Gentle Miscreant
Join date: 21 Sep 2003
Posts: 3,414
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10-06-2007 13:17
This is true, but it doesn't really change the meaning of the stats. Even if every USER had 10 RESIDENTS that logged in during the 30 days, there is still a USER behind every RESIDENT. Out of curiousity, I just reloaded the secondlife.com home page a few times and found the US$ Spent number to cycle randomly through "$1,072,594", "$1,072,553", and the unitless "228,749". Seems they can't even invent convincing numbers. Believe what you will; I'm finding it rather difficult to trust their self-serving data. |
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Colette Meiji
Registered User
Join date: 25 Mar 2005
Posts: 15,556
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10-07-2007 08:14
This is true, but it doesn't really change the meaning of the stats. Even if every USER had 10 RESIDENTS that logged in during the 30 days, there is still a USER behind every RESIDENT. So the average hours spent per unique RL person is higher than the 23 hours/month. I guess it just depends on how you define a USER. With LL's definition there were 974,000 users logged with an average of 23 hours each. With your definition of a USER as an individual RL person there would be fewer than 974,000 users logged in with more than 23 hours each. Actually I make a distinction between Unique User and user, as your first post used 'unique user', but really was a unique resident. I agree that means the average online time goes up. As my first post int his thread indicates, probably over 30 hours a month. |
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Colette Meiji
Registered User
Join date: 25 Mar 2005
Posts: 15,556
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10-07-2007 08:15
And all your semantic banter doesn't mean a thing if the numbers are fabricated.Except now the numbers rotate through the sequence "$1,080,274", "$1,072,044", and "227,103". Oh wait, now it is "224,232", "$1,081,678", "$1,072,338". Believe what you will; I'm finding it rather difficult to trust their self-serving data. Is the data fabricated or just not updated in a timely manner? I always assumed the second of those. |