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What are your SL Predictions for 2010? |
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Lance Corrimal
I don't do stupid.
Join date: 9 Jun 2006
Posts: 877
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01-01-2010 04:03
Where do you get this? He's in SL almost every day, albeit in short sessions typically between five minutes and half an hour. that's about the average time that it takes for any given place to fully rez :/ he comes, he waits, he sees, he shudders, he leaves. _____________________
Your maturity rating is directly reflected by the number of question marks you place at the end of a question. Those who enter any virtual world with the main purpose of making money at it...probably won't. |
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Conifer Dada
Hiya m'dooks!
Join date: 6 Oct 2006
Posts: 3,716
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01-01-2010 04:03
Happy New Year - Happy "Twenty-Ten" !!!
My predictions: That dynamic shadows will be added as a regular option on the viewer, and that they'll work reasonably well. I mean this as distinct from how we can get them now by fiddling with the debug settings and then they are buggy and slow. That there'll be an increase in either maximum prim size or prim limits for land, or both. |
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Argent Stonecutter
Emergency Mustelid
Join date: 20 Sep 2005
Posts: 20,263
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01-01-2010 05:27
That dynamic shadows will be added as a regular option on the viewer, and that they'll work reasonably well.  _____________________
Argent Stonecutter - http://globalcausalityviolation.blogspot.com/
"And now I'm going to show you something really cool." Skyhook Station - http://xrl.us/skyhook23 Coonspiracy Store - http://xrl.us/coonstore |
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Rene Erlanger
Scuderia Shapes & Skins G
Join date: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 2,008
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01-01-2010 07:06
My prediction is that Mark Kingdon will resign as CEO of Linden Lab this year. . I hope you're right! _____________________
Scuderia Group
 Plush Enigma Shops: https://slurl.com/secondlife/Plush%20Enigma/50/63/22/ Plush Giga Shops: https://slurl.com/secondlife/Plush%20Giga/202/82/22/ |
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Taliesin Direwytch
Registered User
Join date: 11 Aug 2009
Posts: 4
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01-01-2010 07:30
*Cheaper not only because of the costs of buying an island, paying tier, and giving up hours of workers' time because the workers have to learn how to walk around without bumping into walls---but primarily because most businesses don't buy computers for their workers that are capable of running SL adequately. This pretty much hits the nail on the head. So all arguments that SL is cheaper in any way shape or form than a real world alternative is pretty much shot down with that one statement. |
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Kitty Barnett
Registered User
Join date: 10 May 2006
Posts: 5,586
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01-01-2010 08:27
That there'll be an increase in either maximum prim size or prim limits for land, or both. With prim limits the issue was that their (then) current way of keeping track which prims (which includes attachments) are rezzed (along with tracking every avie's interest list) is horribly inefficient and "doesn't scale" without introducing signficant extra stress on the sim. Prim size tied in to the above and there was the issue that they wanted to implement full object-parcel collision (ie if even one prim in your neighbour's 200 prim linkset as much as crossed over onto your border by 1cm then you'd be able to return it - or at least nudge it back over onto their border) before even considering it. It sounded like far too much work to ever expect LL to want to bother and at the time (around the time of Havok-4) it wasn't even at the bottom of their priorities list. |
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Rime Wirsing
Color me gone
Join date: 31 Dec 2008
Posts: 345
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01-01-2010 08:40
In a surprise announcement Google will acquire Linden Lab as it continues to seek world domination.
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DanielRavenNest Noe
Registered User
Join date: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 1,076
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01-01-2010 09:19
This pretty much hits the nail on the head. So all arguments that SL is cheaper in any way shape or form than a real world alternative is pretty much shot down with that one statement. For general business meetings, SL is not the best tool. For 3D simulations it is useful. Like if I was doing a building layout for an office, its a great way to do a quick and dirty layout, walk the managers through it, and then give it to a drafter to make the real plans in Autocad. But since you cannot send most types of business documents within SL (MS Office and .pdfs), its pretty useless for the kind of meeting where you need to review them. |
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DanielRavenNest Noe
Registered User
Join date: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 1,076
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01-01-2010 09:19
In a surprise announcement Google will acquire Linden Lab as it continues to seek world domination. They don't call it Google Earth for nothing *smile* |
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LittleMe Jewell
...........
Join date: 8 Oct 2007
Posts: 11,319
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01-01-2010 10:34
11) Anshe will quietly exit SL. _____________________
♥♥♥
-Lil Why do you sit there looking like an envelope without any address on it? ~Mark Twain~ Optimism is denial, so face the facts and move on. ♥♥♥ Lil's Yard Sale / Inventory Cleanout: http://slurl.com/secondlife/Triggerfish/52/27/22 . http://www.flickr.com/photos/littleme_jewell |
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SuezanneC Baskerville
Forums Rock!
Join date: 22 Dec 2003
Posts: 14,229
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01-01-2010 10:42
It's already been renamed "Viewer 2.0". Is there a joke going on here? Wasn't it "Viewer 2009" that got changed to "Viewer 2.0"? _____________________
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So long to these forums, the vBulletin forums that used to be at forums.secondlife.com. I will miss them. I can be found on the web by searching for "SuezanneC Baskerville", or go to http://www.google.com/profiles/suezanne - http://lindenlab.tribe.net/ created on 11/19/03. Members: Ben, Catherine, Colin, Cory, Dan, Doug, Jim, Philip, Phoenix, Richard, Robin, and Ryan - |
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Nika Talaj
now you see her ...
Join date: 2 Jan 2007
Posts: 5,449
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01-01-2010 11:20
Well, hmm. I won't call these predictions, more like wild guesses, and possibly they're more for 2011 than 2010:
> Possibly in 2010 but more likely in 2011, LL will acquire a startup that has been successful at attracting business customers to an OpenSim or custom platform. Since LL would first have to acknowledge that SL Enterprise (which has yet to generate a single new Case Study) has failed, it will take a while for this pretty sensible move to occur. > Kingdon will quietly hire a consultant who will work with him personally to engineer some sort of very showy LL "success". Kingdon will use this to craft either: an acquisition of LL (I don't know who might bite other than IBM, and knowing their M&A folks, good luck with that, Mark!), or his own exit, but not before 2011. > If concurrency does not dramatically increase, Frank Ambrose (VP Global Technology), who has had a good effect on grid stability, will move on to new challenges. > And lastly, a subtle change among the user base. As LL moves to bring 2D media and SL closer together, as they close these forums, as Blue Mars and OpenSim continue to grow, LL's group of hard-core users will slowly disperse. One can already see this happening in Caledon, as pillars of the community there spend a lot of time in Blue Mars. I can only put my finger on one definite effect of this: creativity among the user base will diminish. This will be augmented by mesh imports, which will have the ironic effect of making SL look more like other VWs. I don't know what other effects this social fragmentation will have on SL; maybe none, as newer, less committed users come and go. . |
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Argent Stonecutter
Emergency Mustelid
Join date: 20 Sep 2005
Posts: 20,263
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01-01-2010 11:32
Wasn't it "Viewer 2009" that got changed to "Viewer 2.0"? _____________________
Argent Stonecutter - http://globalcausalityviolation.blogspot.com/
"And now I'm going to show you something really cool." Skyhook Station - http://xrl.us/skyhook23 Coonspiracy Store - http://xrl.us/coonstore |
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Void Singer
Int vSelf = Sing(void);
Join date: 24 Sep 2005
Posts: 6,973
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01-01-2010 13:31
Indeed so. It was changed to "Viewer 2.0". Not "Viewer 2010". There is no "Viewer 2010". and that would explain the lack of laughter.... _____________________
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Ponsonby Low
Unregistered User
Join date: 21 May 2008
Posts: 1,893
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01-01-2010 14:40
Originally Posted by Ponsonby Low *Cheaper not only because of the costs of buying an island, paying tier, and giving up hours of workers' time because the workers have to learn how to walk around without bumping into walls---but primarily because most businesses don't buy computers for their workers that are capable of running SL adequately. This pretty much hits the nail on the head. So all arguments that SL is cheaper in any way shape or form than a real world alternative is pretty much shot down with that one statement. Indeed. And yet this formidable bar to LL's dream of 'corporations will pay us millions' is simply waved aside, as are the aforementioned problems with lack of facial expressions/body language. One gets the feeling that LL is hoping that major corporations simply won't think of these things before handing over the millions. And that hope is unlikely of realization. Any business plan founded on 'we hope they won't notice how bad a deal this is for them' is a shaky one---you can't count on people being that stupid, or on being able to suppress information to that extent. I DO actually think that Philip's vision of a future in which business meetings take place in virtual reality is correct. But it lies in a future in which: a) some sort of inexpensive motion capture technology would let people 'be' in the room, facial expressions and body language and all, instead of merely pushing a cartoon avatar around to represent themselves, and b) computers powerful enough to run this hypothetical future virtual world will be cheap and plentiful. (Also, as DanielRavenNest pointed out, this future virtual world will have to provide easy access to business documents inworld.) The problem arises when a present-day company ignores current customers and potential immediate-future customers, in favor of courting customers (corporations) with promises ('a cheaper, better alternative to flying to meetings or even holding them by video-conference') they can't keep. . Such a company quickly gets a name for being either deceptive or clueless. It's an excellent way to bring about the demise of said company. _____________________
War is over---if you want it.
P Low Low P Studio SMALL PARCEL SOLUTIONS: Homes & shops of distinction, with low prim-counts, surprisingly low prices! |
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Ponsonby Low
Unregistered User
Join date: 21 May 2008
Posts: 1,893
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01-01-2010 14:41
Oh, and another prediction for 2010:
........they STILL won't fix our ankles. _____________________
War is over---if you want it.
P Low Low P Studio SMALL PARCEL SOLUTIONS: Homes & shops of distinction, with low prim-counts, surprisingly low prices! |
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DanielRavenNest Noe
Registered User
Join date: 26 Oct 2006
Posts: 1,076
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01-01-2010 16:22
But it lies in a future in which: a) some sort of inexpensive motion capture technology would let people 'be' in the room, facial expressions and body language and all, instead of merely pushing a cartoon avatar around to represent themselves, Easiest way I can think of to do this is use two cameras per participant for the 3D effect, and project their real life images into a computer generated meeting space. If they are sitting around a meeting table and so more or less stationary, the display calculations will not be thrown off so much by their movements. If they move around a lot, then you have to use more cameras, and map their image onto an avatar blank in real time, which is more complicated. Think of it this way, we map static textures onto an avatar shape, and video feed onto a prim. Combine the two, map video feed onto an avatar shape. Then it is the real person's image being shown. You would need some kind of scanner to get their shape in real time, and be able to stitch the images from several cameras into a surround image. |
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Ponsonby Low
Unregistered User
Join date: 21 May 2008
Posts: 1,893
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01-01-2010 16:45
Easiest way I can think of to do this is use two cameras per participant for the 3D effect, and project their real life images into a computer generated meeting space. If they are sitting around a meeting table and so more or less stationary, the display calculations will not be thrown off so much by their movements. If they move around a lot, then you have to use more cameras, and map their image onto an avatar blank in real time, which is more complicated. Think of it this way, we map static textures onto an avatar shape, and video feed onto a prim. Combine the two, map video feed onto an avatar shape. Then it is the real person's image being shown. You would need some kind of scanner to get their shape in real time, and be able to stitch the images from several cameras into a surround image. I'm no techie, but to me that does sound plausible. It's certainly a problem that will have to be solved before the 'meetings in virtual worlds' thing could become attractive enough to pay for. _____________________
War is over---if you want it.
P Low Low P Studio SMALL PARCEL SOLUTIONS: Homes & shops of distinction, with low prim-counts, surprisingly low prices! |
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Rime Wirsing
Color me gone
Join date: 31 Dec 2008
Posts: 345
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01-01-2010 16:53
[snip]But since you cannot send most types of business documents within SL (MS Office and .pdfs), its pretty useless for the kind of meeting where you need to review them. Interactive HTML on a prim + Google Docs ? Goodbye grid hello cloud. |
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Kara Spengler
Pink Cat
Join date: 11 Jun 2007
Posts: 1,227
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01-02-2010 06:28
4. Land prices will continue to slump How much lower can you get than "Want my land for free? I can not afford tier when it is worth so little so will just abandon it anyway"? _____________________
Those Lindening Lindens!
'O predictable experience, O predictable experience, Never shalt we define thee. Our users think that means no lagging, But we say they want no shagging. O predictable experience, O predictable experience, We love you null expression.' |
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Melita Magic
On my own terms.
Join date: 5 Jun 2008
Posts: 2,253
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01-04-2010 11:09
As 2009 comes to an end what are your Second Life predictions for 2010? It's bought by Coca-Cola! I wish you all a happy new year 2010!  thanks. you too  _____________________
"Every time you help a newbie, an angel gets its wings." - from some movie or other...
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Lee Ponzu
What Would Steve Do?
Join date: 28 Jun 2006
Posts: 1,770
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Two programmers...
01-04-2010 14:41
....working as we speak somewhere in a garage will release a new, fully operational architecture for Second Life like worlds that *will* scale to millions.
Also, SL will be made compatible with Sixth Sense by an English school girl working in her spare time, and we hordes will migrate to the real world, fetishes and all. _____________________
So many monkeys, so little Shakespeare.
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Maelstrom Janus
Ban Ban Lines !!!
Join date: 4 Jul 2007
Posts: 1,220
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01-04-2010 17:33
I predict... You're gonna take a walk in the rain And you're gonna get wet I predict. And in SL... 1. Shadows and advanced lighting will finally make it to SL in a regular way, but may will be upset to find they do not have the minimum requirements to use them. 2. Mesh importing will hit the grid, causing an even greater gap between those who build in SL and those who buy. 3. Viewer 2.0, a change which will be heralded by a whole lot of drama. Some will swear by new features in them, others will be put off by the interface, especially any 'simplification' involved in it. 4. Land prices will continue to slump, as will concurrency. Both will tip upwards by the end of 2010. 5. At least three new info hubs will show up on the grid, and a number of older, smaller ones will be shuttered. This will lead to a lot of drama from those around the ones closed. Some of those will, however, be saved as a result. 6. The SLRR finally begins to run again, as does the Nova Albion Trolley 7. Yet another major land mass comes onto the grid, possibly another themed "city" area. Bay City is also expanded. Some additional linkages are forged between the continental masses. 8. Additional "simplifications" are made to the registration process. This does lead to more new users, though not necessarily any more retention. 9. True HTML on a prim comes to Second Life, as well as implementation of Flash and other features. Some third-party sites balk at this, or put in limitations to the use of their content in Second Life/ 10. The SL Forums are finally shuttered, but the "blogorum" never fully catches on. Another system eventually replaces both, but also fails to gain substantive use. So basically nothing thats any use to anyone...with the possible exception of the trains running on time...(didnt they say that about Mussolini) _____________________
The Janus Chrononauts - 'Investigate and Explore.'
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Catherine Cotton
Tis Elfin
Join date: 2 Apr 2003
Posts: 3,001
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01-04-2010 17:34
As 2009 comes to an end what are your Second Life predictions for 2010? I wish you all a happy new year 2010! Been in SL for 7 years....should be interesting to watch it implode. |
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Maelstrom Janus
Ban Ban Lines !!!
Join date: 4 Jul 2007
Posts: 1,220
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01-04-2010 17:41
I dont think much will change certainly not in the areas I want it to ... all the problems I see have been in sl longer than I have...
you cant even ask the people in charge questions and they dont seem to listen to suggestions and ideas.... the one thing which needs to change is that premium membership arent considered important or the life blood of sl which they are.... _____________________
The Janus Chrononauts - 'Investigate and Explore.'
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