Sky really is falling?

If you get to the September stats on the economy statistics, there is a disturbing number going on with the premiums. Between August and September, LL netted only 454 more premium members. Whereas in previous months, there had been around 6000 new net premiums per month, this is highly disturbing. (must view in Excel format, or maybe opendoc - the google docs version doesn't show it)

The last time the net growth was this low was May 2005!

2005 May 7,039
2005 June 7,548
2005 July 8,231
2005 August 8,953
2005 September 9,826
2005 October 10,772
2005 November 11,633
2005 December 12,433
2006 January 13,403
2006 February 14,178
2006 March 15,162
2006 April 16,535
2006 May 18,320
2006 June 19,685
2006 July 21,441
2006 August 24,702
2006 September 28,253
2006 October 32,526
2006 November 42,430
2006 December 49,776
2007 January 57,661
2007 February 66,838
2007 March 75,714
2007 April 83,063
2007 May 89,845
2007 June 94,607
2007 July 88,797
2007 August 90,600
2007 September 91,054


We really need to look at the next few months to gauge what is really going on here. LL needs to check itself.

Take a look at the LindenX activity. fairly flat since march .. Even though user hours have changed from 16 million to 24 million in that same time frame.

In fact in March the average USD flowing through was 47 cents per user hour.

in September it was 28 cents.

The only thing i`m surprised at is the huge drop.

It`s a given people would begin to ditch premium with all that`s been going on and all of the problems. Wasn`t a big reason for being P to "own land"..first land has been taken away. Other than first land I never understood why people should become P. there was stipened, but you could get more L$ for less if you bought it through the lindex rather than the fee for being premium. And even then, there`s tons of rental options.

Ive been missing many items, about 4k worth, not just the "missing from database" but the items literally gone. If I were premium I wouldn`t keep paying for something that destroys what I paid RL money for and didn`t work. I just got online and have not been in SL yet, but taking a quick look at my transactions page, I am wondering if there were grid problems today, or grid problems going on right now. (Or maybe its just a low day for me....then again, many have been reporting low sales for awhile........which is also worrisome)

The "scarier" thing is that alot of these people may not only be dowgrading, but also leaving. I don`t blame them though.

Give me one good reason to upgrade to Premium. Land ownership does not count, because there are thousands of mainland and estate rental options available right now.

i, too, was thinking of selling, downgrading to basic free, and renting. i'll wait until after xmas, and see my attitude then.

Me too, Jesse. As addictive as this game is, there really is no reason to be premium, especially when talking about losing real money to the asshat server. Ray is right. With as many estate options as there are right now, and the expensive tier, why should anyone go premium? The only reason at all is to buy mainland, and that's not all it's cracked up to be, if you want a draw distance bigger than 64.

I know some people continue to do very well in this market, but even with prices cut to zero profit (only tier is covered, not advertising or employee salaries) the land still sits vacant FAR too long. There is trouble in paradise, Mr. and Ms. LL, wake up !

LL redesigned their home page and put five links to land ownership/premium upgrade sign up. Yet they did nothing to give premium members any added value. Will we see the return of First Land? They might as well, considering no one wants to buy sims at auction right now...

And watch Anshe's 10L sweatshop kids swoop in and take it? It's better off dead unless the land is specifically assigned.

A renewal of First Land would be a HUGE bonus for new premiums. That was exactly the only reason I went premium in the first place. The thing is, all that land that's sitting vacant now is owned by residents, not LL. LL would have to dump a shitload of new sims into the market and mark them all up for First Land, and start sorting through all of Gov Linden's plots; this wouldn't help all the people still sitting on tier.

Nah, all they need to do is announce that First Land is back and then rarely release any to market like they did in the good ole days.

First Land is the only reason I went premium too, but I would hate to have to compete with new premium landbots! No... better off dead.

Not suprised, Im happy with my island land, less money to LL = good.

I hate to say it, but consider it this way:

Premium:
---------------------------
6 to 10 USD/mo minimum

Mainland

Unused 'tier potential' (say you got 7000m of 8192m paid for)

Locked in for a year

screaming particle spam grief, ad farms, n00bs from hell as neighbours

no region restarts or rollbacks

A/R's and support tickets... yeah.



Land Barony:
---------------------------
0 USD/mo minimum

Private Continents - no more poking eye out trying to unsee mainland

No such thing as unused tier potential

not locked in at all

griefer: tallyho! Freeze him! Pwn him! now let's decorate the chap!

no screaming particles, no ad farms, and oldbies from hell as neighbours

region restarts, rollbacks as required

complaints through land baron get handled much faster than A/R's usually

concierge services through your land baron, if instant answer isn't available

your land baron is probably FIC and connected if you need something

...chance that land baron could disappear or be evil - well, risk ya take for all this.




So... that's where the premium members are going.

72 USD for a year of 512m on the mainland? Eyah. 512m DOUBLE PRIM in Caledon is about 88 USD annually as a basic member - I don't go as small as 512m standard, but if I did, you'd get a super-premium grid experience for 44 USD.

And for those who think this is an ad, go away - I've got a waiting list from hell to get in.

It's the zany strategy of the island/mainland option. I mean for sim *owners* LL has put in the cost differential, but you can "own" parcels on an island estate (that probably performs better than mainland in many cases) without paying a dime in premium. Most people do not own whole sims, so for the typical user, if they want to own land at all, the island ownership is often the way to go simply because the premium isn't required. The stipend doesn't make that much difference, it is very small in the end analysis.

I don't disagree with what you wrote there, Desmond, other than this. This last sentence is clearly an ad in itself.

I'm still premium.. and probably because I'm nucking futs.

I agree that LL really needs to add some serious benefits to being a premium and no, owning land does NOT count. Nor does the support system, because apparently, we're still made to wait who knows how long before they close the ticket for no apparent reason, issue still unresolved.

*sighs* Would people sign up if it meant their inventories were guaranteed to not vanish or if they did, LL would roll it back?

Never mind that, the real question is, who stole the mainland?

Haha. I bet I know what it is... probably a miscounting of the mainland due to the auctions - I bet land on the auction block doesn't count, and with a few previously auctioned sims finally getting restocked, it would result in a shrinking of the mainland. But that's my best guess.

in the long term plan does LL need premiums?

Its obviously making a LOT more in Island and tier fees. The grid size has quadrupled in a year.

I mean the "3D web of the Future" doesn't need premiums. And a web-host makes it money renting server space.

Since *one* island is 29+ premium accounts PLUS none of those pesky stipends to worry about inflating the economy.

I'm personally a lot more worried how much less per person is being spent on Content.

With the exception of all land barons being FIC, what Desmond says is all true. My baron isn't FIC (I think), but still life is peaceful, reasonably priced, service is swift, lag is relatively low, and I know the chief builder for the set of sims personally - she has buzzed by a couple of times to fix things up for me. I can build anything within the covenant, and there are about three other barons I would consider going to if I wanted a looser covenant.

Life is good. Note that all of the 3 barons I was considering a few months ago when I was shopping for a parcel are still around, and none of them post on the forums. *shrugs*

I don't think Premium growth/shrinking is a sign of sky falling, I think Premium was an income stream LL needed initially and doesn't anymore.

Nah, the oceans are rising with global warming and sims are being submerged.

As I said, I agreed with what he wrote .... I just disagreed that the last sentence wasn't an ad (even an unintended one) ...

Might have been land abandoned due to VAT, or Linden owned land that they removed?

lol, Desmond!

coco

P.S. Seriously, though, guys - there IS a psychological difference between renting/owning from someone on an island, and renting/owning from LL on the mainland.

I've done both for two years now - and still in the same place on both - and I'm happy with both. But there IS a different feeling to the land that is mine, all mine - where I make the rules and can put up or do whatever I want - versus land that is actually someone else's, that I am owning cooperatively, according to their contract.

I'm not the boss there. But on the mainland, I am. It's a whole different feeling. You don't have to worry about what the residents who really own the land will think; only what the Lindens might think.

And I'm QUITE happy with my land on the islands, too - I'm just saying it is a different feeling. I just don't think I would be happy if I didn't have also some land where I'm the boss of it, lol.

coco