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L$-USD exchange rate dynamics -- theory vs. observation |
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StoneSelf Karuna
His Grace
Join date: 13 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,955
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05-25-2006 15:10
True. But to calculate the forward FX rate, you need to include the domestic currency exchange rate (which for USD was around 4% p.a. when I first did the original analysis). yeah i know. that info wasn't for you.  361 isn't quite the right number to use, because some of that $6/month must be to keep the servers running. and it's not an absolute reason why the l$ couldn't go higher. but it gives people real data points to think about. just something to put in the hopper. _____________________
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StoneSelf Karuna
His Grace
Join date: 13 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,955
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05-26-2006 07:39
l$15 to go.
rick, over or under? _____________________
AIDS IS NOT OVER. people are still getting aids. people are still living with aids. people are still dying from aids. please help me raise money for hiv/aids services and research. you can help by making a donation here: http://www.aidslifecycle.org/1409 .
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Ricky Zamboni
Private citizen
Join date: 4 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,080
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05-26-2006 08:04
I've just recalibrated my model using the most recent set of data. I now predict exchange rates of:
May 31: L$352 +/- L$12 (95% C.I.) June 7: L$355 +/- L$16 (95% C.I.) June 30: L$361 +/- L$27 (95% C.I.) |
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ReserveBank Division
Senior Member
Join date: 16 Jan 2006
Posts: 1,408
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05-26-2006 08:20
And here's an updated chart showing exchange rate as a function of time. This also includes 25-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages. L$/USD chart -- 25-May-2006 Ricky: You should pull all the new data and old date from back to 2004 and post a new chart showing the entire lifeline of the Linden Dollar. _____________________
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Ricky Zamboni
Private citizen
Join date: 4 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,080
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05-26-2006 09:22
Ricky: You should pull all the new data and old date from back to 2004 and post a new chart showing the entire lifeline of the Linden Dollar. Ask, and ye shall receive.  The linked chart goes all the way back to Feb 1, 2004. Although the first-ever L$ trade took place on Dec 5th, 2003, the trade volume was sufficiently small before late January 2004 that the price was extremely volatile. Enjoy! |