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Devlin Gallant
Thought Police
Join date: 18 Jun 2003
Posts: 5,948
12-27-2004 12:51
Anyone who was close enough to see it was incinerated.
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Cross Lament
Loose-brained Vixen
Join date: 20 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,115
12-27-2004 13:51
Woo, the probability just keeps climbing. :D

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/2004mn4.html
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Neehai Zapata
Unofficial Parent
Join date: 8 Apr 2004
Posts: 1,970
12-27-2004 15:47
From: someone
Hopefully, donuts that taste like beer.

That would be cool.

I think the trick is that everyone should jump up in the air at the exact moment the asteroid hits. That should pretty much keep everyone safe.
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Aurican Sunchaser
Old as dirt
Join date: 8 Jan 2003
Posts: 16
12-27-2004 15:58
with this online tool you can calculate the effects of an impact event.
Impact Effects Calculator
Cross Lament
Loose-brained Vixen
Join date: 20 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,115
12-27-2004 16:26
From: Eggy Lippmann
So, why didnt they leave anything in writing about a great big mother of a fireball and the ensuing chaos?


Sodom? Gomorrah? :D
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Lillyana Hoffman
DJ/Designer/Flirt
Join date: 24 Nov 2004
Posts: 166
12-27-2004 19:06
From: Cross Lament
if we're feeling cheap we could just fill a rocket with white paint and paint the thing white, and let the Sun nudge it along. :D



I say we paint it...

Like an easter egg...
Azelda Garcia
Azelda Garcia
Join date: 3 Nov 2003
Posts: 819
12-27-2004 20:18
The States are working on some rather nifty laser technology right now. Its not awfully mobile but it is capable of blowing up artillery shells in midflight (!), and I think it can handle the odd vehicle/tank thing too.

Given a few years it's perhaps not inconceivable to be able to do something nasty to a big chunk of rock with this?

You wouldnt necessarily have to blow it up; if you lazed down oneside, the ensuring vaporization yet would exert a force. If you lazed soon enough and hard enough, you might be able to nudge it along a slightly different path?

Azelda
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Eggy Lippmann
Wiktator
Join date: 1 May 2003
Posts: 7,939
12-28-2004 03:10
We're safe. NASA now estimates probability at 1 in 56000 :)
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?1.8e-05
Taco Rubio
also quite creepy
Join date: 15 Feb 2004
Posts: 3,349
12-28-2004 07:21
From: Eggy Lippmann
We're safe. NASA now estimates probability at 1 in 56000 :)
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?1.8e-05


Evidently, you're not familiar with my luck :o
Alan Edison
Ty Zvezda
Join date: 28 Jun 2004
Posts: 420
12-28-2004 08:15
From: Eggy Lippmann
We're safe. NASA now estimates probability at 1 in 56000 :)
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ip?1.8e-05


maybe they just urned the microscope the other way round?
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Ty Zvezda
Cross Lament
Loose-brained Vixen
Join date: 20 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,115
12-28-2004 21:13
Ah well, I'm actually kinda disappointed. That would've been the best possible case for a certain impact, because we have so much lead time. Could've motivated us to take steps to protect ourselves from such things.
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Torley Linden
Enlightenment!
Join date: 15 Sep 2004
Posts: 16,530
12-28-2004 21:16
I would hope that in the face of any impending disaster, that humankind would unite together to live out our last days in peace, since we'd be all killed anyway in a fiery burning ball of BANG! It's idealistic and unrealistic, but something I definitely hope for -- world peace, not an incoming meteor. ;)
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Tito Gomez
Mi Vida Loca
Join date: 1 Aug 2004
Posts: 921
12-28-2004 21:35
From: someone
NASA now estimates probability at 1 in 56000


Well, just don't let me bet on it (against it), because if I do, it is almost guaranteed we will get hit!

Wanna get rich? Short the stocks I buy, buy the stocks I sell, own the casino where I gamble. :(

- T -
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Eggy Lippmann
Wiktator
Join date: 1 May 2003
Posts: 7,939
12-29-2004 03:15
I dont mean to frighten you but the odds are back up to 1 in 26000 :)
Regardless of that, NASA has pretty much ruled out the possibility of a collision and have downgraded the asteroid's threat category to green.
Here is an interesting animation I found on their website.
Hiro Pendragon
bye bye f0rums!
Join date: 22 Jan 2004
Posts: 5,905
12-29-2004 03:24
From: Eggy Lippmann
I dont mean to frighten you but the odds are back up to 1 in 26000 :)
Regardless of that, NASA has pretty much ruled out the possibility of a collision and have downgraded the asteroid's threat category to green.
Here is an interesting animation I found on their website.

Yeah, well that don't mean nothin'! I also found this picture on their website:
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Adam Zaius
Deus
Join date: 9 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,483
12-29-2004 04:12
From: Einsman Schlegel
What baffles me is why not toss the damn nukes at it? I don't understand, since theres got to be a reason why we have nukes in the first place, and if the world is threatened, then an asteroid would be the most likely target to use it against.

Armageddon (the movie) if you went by what they said, makes aboslutely no sense. Yes, the asteroid would be broken up into a million peices, however, those smaller peices would increase the chances of it burning up in the earths atmosphere. So not using nukes against an asteroid is illlogical since at least we'd have a chance to survive it. But I do agree, that there's a potential risk of using nukes as with all WMDs, but hey, there's got to be some reason we have them.


Problem with nukes is, we want to deflect it, and nukes are not strong enough to blow it to pieces. Unless you blow it up from the inside out, the nuke blast is mainly going to go out into space rather than impact on the asteroid, of course if you nuke it from long enough a distance, then the small amount of force that actually is exerted onto the asteroid should be enough to make a course change, but if it's only a week away, it's too close to do anything.

-Adam
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Devlin Gallant
Thought Police
Join date: 18 Jun 2003
Posts: 5,948
12-29-2004 06:16
Of course we could try to 'deflect' it, and just make matters worse. Get it to hit sooner or something.
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Cross Lament
Loose-brained Vixen
Join date: 20 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,115
12-29-2004 08:02
From: Adam Zaius
Problem with nukes is, we want to deflect it, and nukes are not strong enough to blow it to pieces. Unless you blow it up from the inside out, the nuke blast is mainly going to go out into space rather than impact on the asteroid, of course if you nuke it from long enough a distance, then the small amount of force that actually is exerted onto the asteroid should be enough to make a course change, but if it's only a week away, it's too close to do anything.

-Adam


I imagine what they'd want to use would be a nuclear 'shaped charge', so to speak, constructing the device in such a way to bias the detonation in a particular way. Also, they'd probably clad the nuke in a thick layer plastic; this would increase the 'blast effects' in a vacuum environment, being vaporized and accelerated towards the target in the detonation.

You certainly don't want to hit the asteroid with a nuke... then you'd just run the risk of breaking it apart (or scattering it, if it's a 'gravel heap' asteroid...).
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Azelda Garcia
Azelda Garcia
Join date: 3 Nov 2003
Posts: 819
12-29-2004 08:38
Wait, why are we trying to move the meteor? Why not just move the earth instead?
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Nora Belvedere
Ask me about being an alt
Join date: 25 Sep 2004
Posts: 267
12-30-2004 07:16
I am simply blown away after reading this thread in it's entirety.
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Cross Lament
Loose-brained Vixen
Join date: 20 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,115
12-30-2004 15:22
From: Azelda Garcia
Wait, why are we trying to move the meteor? Why not just move the earth instead?


We were here first! :D
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Adam Blair
Damn Nosy Panther
Join date: 30 Mar 2004
Posts: 11
12-30-2004 21:57
It ain't the meat, it's the motion, if I remember my physics ....
Azelda Garcia
Azelda Garcia
Join date: 3 Nov 2003
Posts: 819
12-31-2004 03:10
> Problem with nukes is, we want to deflect it, and nukes are not strong enough to blow it to pieces. Unless you blow it up from the inside out, the nuke blast is mainly going to go out into space rather than impact on the asteroid

Nukes produce a lot of plasma very quickly. Pretty sure thats a lot of thrust if you struck the meteor to one side. Also, a single nuke will probably vaporize at least a 10-20m layer of rock, so a bunch of them, say 50, is not going to leave very much left over.

That said, I'd assume this rock is moving rather fast, hence my preference for using lazers, or maybe moving the moon around to intercept it :-)

Azelda
Devlin Gallant
Thought Police
Join date: 18 Jun 2003
Posts: 5,948
12-31-2004 08:56
Just what we need...a bunch of small RADIOACTIVE meteors instead of one big one.
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Issarlk Chatnoir
Cross L. apologist.
Join date: 3 Oct 2004
Posts: 424
12-31-2004 13:11
From: Cross Lament
Hey, 53 is a Prime number, that's something, isn't it? :)

Thank you!! My life has a meaning again.
Go asteroid, go !!


From: Neehai Zapata
That would be cool.

I think the trick is that everyone should jump up in the air at the exact moment the asteroid hits. That should pretty much keep everyone safe.

You surelly meant "duck and cover", have you learnt nothing from the cold war?
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From: Flugelhorn McHenry
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