Dragonchiq, as usual, your ideas are refreshing

Yes, I think that "resident-sponsored events" will be the way the New World Order will work.
To add my L$0.02...
While people still insist that SL is a "game", reality (or second reality...) shows us that this is less and less the case. To thrive in SL, you have to work hard, and employ your own RL skills to develop a successfull business, or at least, to manage a network of contacts that allows you to survive. I fully agree that after 2 years of SL or so, "amateurs" (even well-intended amateurs) simply can't keep the pace of "professionals". And this is not undervaluating amateurs. It's a fact of life - both first & second life.
This is something that everybody experiences after a few months in SL. It's a tough "game". Competition is done by professionals - professional artists, programmers, event hosters. And trust me, they will survive, and they won't be affected by not having Linden sponsorship.
Indirectly, what we're seeing is a change from a "welfare state" where you get money no matter what your skills and qualifications are, towards a "capitalist state" where you earn money according to your (RL) skills. While I understand that SL may become uninteresting to those expecting a "free lunch", the truth is, SL is increasing in quality. You simply refuse to pay L$ 300 for a dress that doesn't have perfectly-aligned textures. Or to pay for a builder that can't align walls properly. Or an event hoster that just brings over 3 people, and bores them to death. So, the New World Order means less amateurism, more professionals, more quality.
The words "the richer are getting richer and the poorer remain poor" rings a bell. Pure welfare states have the problem of encouraging lazyness if you're paid no matter how unskilled you are - or how low quality your services/products are. The recent changes - while they originally are just a measure to control inflation - will focus on quality and innovation. While, of course, leaving the "well-intended amateurs" behind. As in RL, there is a place for the "well-intended amateur" - but it's the professionals that strive.
Another trend that I really want to see to happen is having the SL grid more realistically offering services, according to its population density. The grid is about the size of a 1- or 2-million city, and has the amount of clubs, malls and casinos for a city of that size. However, we are just 17 or 18 thousand residents, and perhaps only 3 or 4 thousand regularly connect (over one hour per day, every day, on average). This means you cannot possible have 500+ clubs or 500+ malls to support that tiny population! So far, you managed to support that, because LL was artificially giving residents money for them to support their empty clubs and malls. But only a handful were really successfull - the others survived with sponsored events or by doing "rating parties", etc.
The New World Order will mean much less clubs and malls. I'll not be surprised if there will be only 5 or 6 really big malls, and perhaps the same amount of 24-hour-working clubs. That's the maximum that our current population is really able to support. And, if you look at the tons of items for sale, you'll understand that the group of top designers is also very, very small. So, the amateur clothes designers have basically 3 options:
- substantially lower the price of clothes (say, to L$ 2 or so...)
- gain a lot of experience designing clothes
fast- give it up, close shop, try to explore another niche
In any case, it's the consumer that wins. Only high-quality products will be available for a high price tag, and you can pick up lower-quality products for a small amount.
The same, of course, will apply to hosted events. Let me try to explain better with an example...
Previous model for becoming a successful club owner:
- stick a few prims together. Paint them black/red or use a texture and apply it all wrongly (who cares? People go to your club just for going "woot" any time someone wins a contest, right?).
- buy the required "machines": a dance machine, a lighting system, a fogging machine
- set the streaming URL to one of your favourite radios
- announce "Sexy Avatar Events"
- IM everybody on your contact list
- go "woot" a lot
Expected return: hmm, at least L$ 250 per event per day, plus a few extra for dwell. If you hold a party per day, that's L$ 7500/month. Not bad, for a zero-quality setup! And there will ALWAYS be a small group of people around to earn the free cash.
Current model for becoming a successful club owner:
- start with a CONCEPT. People go to clubs they
like. It's hard to please everybody, so that's why clubs in RL tend to fill niches. SL clubs need to do the same in order to compete.
- define an environment that integrates with the concept. This means carefully building the club, paying premium for a professional architect or interior decorator (yes, they're around in SL, too)
- marketing. You need an image which you have to promote. "Yet Another Club" is simply not possible to marketeer nowadays. Your image has to reflect the uniqueness of your environment. Go to the successful clubs in SL (and RL!) to see what they have which is unique. Learn about your market, your customers' expectations. What will you have to do to make them come to
your club instead of going to your competitors' club?
- right now, successful clubs need at the very least two things: great music - and this means a DJ which accepts orders and has experience in DJing for hours and make it interesting - and a friendly environment.
Note that an SL DJ is not someone who knows how to setup WinAmp and a Shoutcast server and has 500 CDs of dance music at home. If it were so, you'd see RL clubs crammed full of amateur DJs. It takes much more than that to be a successful DJ. You need to understand the mood of your customers. You have to give them a consistent music choice - which has your personal touch, but is pleasuring to most your customers - while accepting orders once in a while. And as the mood swings, the DJ has to take care of that as well. To be very honest, I only know about a handful of people in SL that really, really know how to do this
well - to the point that, in the middle of a very intense punk session, they're able to mix in a Christmas carol or a song from the Monthy Python, have everybody spontaneously laugh, clear the mood, and hit them again with another half an hour of classical punk - finishing the event with everybody begging for more. It's
really hard to do this properly!
Finally, unlike what happens in RL clubs... SL clubs encourage not only private IMs, but also public chat. The hosts have to be entertainers. They have to encourage customers to have fun, enjoy themselves, engage in conversation, make them return the next day because they know they'll find the same environment and the same nice group of people.
If you can create that kind of environment - you're going to be able to have people
paying to attend your events!
This is something that has been going out of fashion lately. Since most events are of such low quality, you expect to attend them for free. That's understandable - low quality means exactly that it's hard to charge for that. As soon as the quality increases, you'll be able to charge premium for it. And we already have all the mechanisms for dealing with admittance payment - buying passes, using donation boxes.
Imagine that your favourite DJ is holding a party at a club and you really, really want to attend that - would you be willing to pay, say, L$ 10 to attend? Perhaps the notion of "paying to go to a club" may sound horrible to you right now, but the question is - if the club is really great, the DJ is a master, and the environment is excellent, won't you spend L$ 10 on it? Even if you're on Basic? After all, it's cheaper than a rating...
I think that what this means is that the 500 clubs who use Model #1 will disappear in a question of weeks. The dozen or so clubs that use Model #2 right now will be able to ask an admittance fee of L$10-100 and thus be able to pay either the DJ, the dancers, a raffle, whatever, and still make a tiny, tiny profit. I believe this to be possible. What I don't believe is in the viability of the Model #1 clubs to survive. They'll slowly close doors and their owners will try other niches. Competition is going to be much, much tougher!
Speaking strictly for myself - and a plug follows! - I usually go to either the Brimstone's or the Rockers' Requiem. Both qualify on the type of Model #2 clubs, despite a certain difference in size

However, I have donated to both regularly, around L$ 100 each time when I go there - the amount varies on how much I have earned that day by selling my items on SL Exchange (another plug!). I'm not being overly generous. Since I do some successful business myself, which gives me some extra income, I'm more than willing to spend it on quality items/services. The same applies to clothing - there are so many low-priced, low-quality clothes around (yes, even the ones I design myself

), why should I buy them, if I can get top-quality stuff for L$ 200 or 300?
So, what I see happening is, a completely different way of thinking about the way we earn and spend money. I think that most people will concentrate and focus on those areas where they are making real money - instead of those that are "fun to do" - and spend money only on the things that are really worth it.
Yes, this will mean that people offering better products will get richer, while amateurs and freeriders will earn nothing. Unfair? No. It's just called capitalism
