Land prices don't matter

If you focus only on the initial purchase price of land, you're missing the point. In the long term, tier is a far more important cost.

Do the math. At an exchange rate of L$ 275 / US$, you will pay a minimum of L$ 10 / sq.m. /year for your land. And that's the best-case scenario, if you have a full sim or more of land, at a tier of US$ 195 / 65536 sq.m.

If you have 4096 sq.m. + 512 sq.m. that comes free with a premium account, for a total of 4608 sq.m., you pay US$ 25 /month for it. That works out to L$ 18 /sq.m. /year.

Say you have 1024 sq.m., then you pay US$ 5 /month (because the first 512 sq.m. is free). That works out to L$ 16 /sq.m. /year.

And if you haven't used up your full tier it's even worse. Say you only have 3584 sq.m. instead of 4096+512 = 4608. Then you're still paying the 4096 sq.m. tier, but for a smaller area. In this case, your tier works out to L$ 23 /sq.m. /year.

The initial purchase price matters if:
-- you only intend to ever hold 512 sq.m. of land, for free, and never any more than that
-- you only intend to own land for a few months, and plan to be landless for the rest of your SL career after that
-- you intend to flip the land quickly for profit
-- one location is exactly as good as any other
-- LL goes out of business in the next few months, or some other major short-term development that fundamentally alters the rules of the game (open-sourcing may in fact be such a development)

Otherwise, if there's a particular bit of land that has value to you for any reason, although perhaps not to anyone else, and you intend to live there or have a store there for at least a year or so, then you could happily pay a premium of, say, L$ 5 /sq.m. for the purchase price and it would hardly matter in the long term.

Indeed, if you've been eyeing some particular parcel of land and the current owner has been reluctant to sell, then a price correction might actually work in your favor. The current owner could be kicking themselves for missing out on the peak price, and might happily accept an above-market offer from you.

SL land prices are probably a bit like recent oil prices... they will come down a fair bit from the peak, but probably not close to what they were in the "good old days".

Good observation SS

It all will depend on supply vs demand. I think the demand is there although I am always shocked at how many people will spend hours camping for 10 or 20 cents of real $. I came into this figuring that if I couldn't afford to hit up my credit card for a 1000L every now and then, what would be point.

Fortunately, I started a business that has done well and I am on the plus side each month even after tier. But I started it because I enjoyed building and what fun is it if there isn't anyone out there to appreciate it. I keep my prices low because I like to see the customers and meet people. I am doing alot of volume but at relatively low prices. I am sure if I did some sort of cost/benefit analysis, I would be better charging more but making less sales. But that no fun.

Good luck on the big new project SS and let me know how it is coming along. C'mon, Islands named "hair", "skin", "furniture" that should come up high in every search.... brilliant. If I want to shop for skins, I want to see as many different makers as I can in one place.

Its gold Jerry, gold.

Ah, your words of wisdom are balm to my soul.

I spent a hefty sum in $US for 8056m of land a few weeks ago, and I winced a bit when I saw the notice of a new continent, along with predictions that land prices will drop. But as you so rightly point out, any discrepancy between what I paid before and what I might have paid in the future is insignificant compared to the $40/mo tier I've committed to paying over the long term.

And in the meantime, instead of waiting to see if land prices will drop and wondering by how much they can drop before I should buy, I've been building up a storm. Going from 1024 to 8056 is like being let loose in a candy store. I've got workspace galore and just finished a spacious showroom, plus I have enough land left over to live in luxury and even provide a parcel for a friend to life on. My head is spinning with plans for using every sm of my property, which will keep me happily occupied in SL for the next few years.

Even if I never get back a penny of the $ I spent on this land, I can't regret the indulgence. For less than the cost of a vacation trip, I've bought myself unending fun.