Land Prices Mystery Solved

It's no mystery, really. Proving that land prices are set pretty much entirely by how many sims are dropped to auction, the two day absence of new auction listings has prices rising quickly today from a base of L$9.5 a meter 24 hours ago to a base of L$10.3 right now.

Sales are brisk and prices are rising fast today. With only two sim auctions ending today and just three more sims coming to market 48 hours from now, we should be back at a base of L$11 by tonight.

My hunch is that L$10 is the target price for LL. Anyone waiting for it to get back to L$7-8 might want to consider buying at L$9.5. It seems to be as low as it gets these days.

Of course, a couple of 40 sim drops will change all this...temporarily. I doubt they will do this since I believe L$10 is where they want to keep things.

So my question is, do you agree with me, or strongly agree with me?

I think it's a reasonable theory, but still insufficient data to build a business model on.

The post was more for people trying to time when to buy or sell land. I suggest these folks go to the auction page first and see how many sims are in the queue. If it's not many, like today, count on prices going up in the next 24 hours. If there are 16 or 32 full sims in the queue, it might pay to wait a day until these flood the market and prices drop again.

http://secondlife.com/auctions/

Also, keep an eye on LL's actions to see if my theory that they are shooting to keep land at a L$10 base is on the mark.

I think the continual addition of land will eventually stop... right now it even seems so that there is more land than people need these days. Theres no demand for anymore land it seems to me at this point in time. The only thing keeping land prices as high as it is in my eyes is the stubborness (Hey, Im included) to sell a parcel of 512 below a certain point.

There is not "no demand" or prices wouldn't be rising today. But I agree there is not a lot of demand, especially when it comes to the end user. It's almost solely land brokers selling to other brokers.

So do we think that land is on the way down or on the way up again?

Is the average price per square meter the same across different sized parcels of land, or do some parcel sizes sell quicker / higher than others? How do we know what it is? Does it differ between mainland and auctioned regions? Do the convenent restrictions mean that prices are lower for private island 'sales'? How many people actually know?

Does such information help both buyers and sellers?

What I wonder IS actually the average price of sales, rather than pricing, at the moment, and how stable is it?

So many questions, which affect you whether you are buying or selling a tiny plot or half a rewgion or multi islands?

Fascinating, though.

I know a TON of people who are in the market for land right now, but like me, they already own a nice plot for themselves. They aren't willing at any point to pay even the moderately higher prices. I too am looking for a nice 512-2048 mainland with good water access, but until I see sellers start pricing to MOVE instead of pricing for every last L$ they think they can get, I wont even consider buying.

Here's my theory: LL will continue to lag behind on new sim releases and land prices will continue to creep up until I purchase some land for resale. That triggers the release of 40 new sims and the subsequent lowering of land prices. Once I lower my price just so I don't have to eat a second month's worth of tier, LL will again throttle back on new sim auctions.

Is it just me?

So that's what dictates the auction drops...Let me know the next time you buy!

Nope, worked for me too!

Meanwhile, the same yellow blocks are still showing around one of the spots I have land in. After weeks being unsold (or at least immediately resold). Someone is eating the tier on that lot and not making a bean.

There are pressures that can tempt people to sell cheap - e.g. to offload tier, or because they need the cash for something else. Bots might actually help drive prices down sometimes as people who want a quick sale know that they might sell in seconds by pricing their land as the cheapest.

The prices we talk about here are for just any land. But that is not the way it works for me: Sometimes you just want to have a particular lot. Before some neighbor snatches it. Then we are talking about prices of L$ 20 ... 30 /sqm.

Ive been looking for about 15000 sqm for about 3 months now, and until the price drops below L$ 8 I wont be buying. May mean I never get the land but I wont pay over the odds for unstable laggy mainland. Seems to me at the moment that its just brokers selling to brokers selling to brokers selling to niave/rich new players. Also in my experience, more verteran players are either holding off buying land until the market drops again to an aceptable level or they have vacated the mainland all together.

Anyone know the general figure that inspires a bot to buy, i.e. would a bot buy at L$7 but not buy at L$7.1? Realise it prolly changes day to day but what is the general definition of 'cheap land' nowadays. In my eyes its still L$3, but takes me a while to catch up!

I'm not so sure Raymond, and here's why: Even with the last large load of new sims dumped on the grid, prices didn't fall much below 10 for new parcels. Some did, but who wants land on an absolutely hacked up mess of a new sim like Nokomis? Yeech.

Prices started low enough on new sims, they went up as the parcels were initially flipped, then went back down as the adfarms started popping up. There are new adfarms every day, which will inhibit prices for the average draw distance.

Prices for decent parcels are still about the same as they have been for the last two large sim dumps. I think the price your average citizen is willing to pay is about the same, and is quite higher than what the land speculators are selling back and forth to one another.

Just my .02.

Based on my limited observations, some bots buy at L$1/m2 below the established price floor.

I agree,
Using the land search tool as an all purpose guide for land value is, IMO, wrong. You can't compare the new mainland sims being auctioned off to the more established, unique, older sims.

The older continents (the first 2) are full of unique terrain textures and many allow terraforming (+/- 40m). Also, it seems LL blocked more waterfronts and oceanfronts with protected land in these areas, not to mention paved roads.

The search tool only indicates what new, boring, sparsley grassed land is selling for. If you want something a little more valuable, you have to pay a little more.

Happy hunting

Old, new, ugly, pristine. I don't see anything selling right now. Anybody moving land? Anybody buying?

Well first off I didn't say it was doing as well, better or worse. I thought maybe you were privy to some info that I am not.

grins

The map around my home location is still full of the same yellow blocks that have been there for weeks.

I bought recently. A very nice parcel in a sim with only one parcel remaining for sale. No spinny ads, no adfarms in sight. Mostly pastoral.

Yeah, I know that could change but finding a place like that is next to impossible, and I got it for a good price too.