fair price for a sim sale

What is the average price that *old* (tier of 195/month) sims are selling for in resident to resident transfers?

I've been quoted prices from $1300 to $2200, and I'd like to get more of an idea of what the average is.

It depends.

First of all (and no disrespect intended) you have not described exactly what you mean, that is are we debating a mainland sim or an Island sim (also known as a Private Estate)

For this answer I will stick to "mainland" and "private estate" to be clear on what we are talking about.

Mainland is where you pay tier to Linden and are connected on at least one full side of a square (possibly excluding a few special one off sims. Any tools you have for controlling the land are the equal of any other mainland owner. Currently there are no plans to increase tier levels paid in US dollars. The latest auction prices I have seen is US dollars are in the order of $2,000 per complete new sim.

Mainland has limited tools for shaping land, in most cases you can only raise or lower land by 4 meters, and the prim limits per square meter are fixed and cannot be altered, with the exception of two sims on the first continent in the extreme west where the prim limit is doubled. There are also around 20 odd sims where landscaping is allowed up to 40 meters plus or minus. These latter sims are highly prized and sort after especially if they front onto water. I have to confess to a personal financial position here, as I own land in such a sim that is for sale.

Private Estate sims are complete Islands with no walk through access to the mainland. The only way from "Here" to "There" is by teleporting OR by logging on to a location.
If purchased in the early part of November or before the tier rent of such as sim was $195 per month and the up front cost was $1,250 paid to Linden Labs. A few land baron avatars such as Anshe Chung were also able to provide new sims to you as an Estate Owner in your own right and added value by landscaping.

We all know the position on new sims post November, that is an increase on sim tier levels and up front prices.

Linden Labs have stated that any private estates transferred BEFORE the 15th February 2007 (from avatar to avatar) will remain at the old tier level while held by the purchasing avatar. I met Anshe Chung at a recent press conference and asked her if she was still able to deliver new sims at the old tier level and was informed she was unable to do so as she needed land for her own Dreamland development.

Therefore I conclude that:

a) If mainland is going for creation cost of around $2,000 per new sim with limited tools

b) If the transfer of a new sim occurs before the 15th of February

There is a fair chance the old sim owner may demand and make a "turn" BUT there are many other speculators also in this market and like real life stock markets if everybody thinks something is bound to go up it usually does not.

Finally you will note I have not answered your question despite this detailed post, the reason why is I cannot and neither can anyone else as it requires foreknowledge of the future. As I type this I am looking at the FT100, which is 22.3 up at 6045. I don’t know if it will hold onto its gains today or fall later this week. I only know that TA theory tells me support is around 5950 (200 day moving average) and if it goes below that level it might fall much further.

It is much the same for land in sl, support and resistance also apply and outside broad limits it is hard to predict.

Looks as though you're probably more likely to know than others Angel, as you're getting quotes from sellers. From the figures you supplied it would appear that the average is $1750. If you're wanting a more accurate figure, best to get more quotes from sellers, as I doubt there is an index detailing land sales values.

Good luck!

Yes I am getting quotes, but in an effort to be really sure I'm also asking what other people paid for their *islands*. The reasoning is twofold.... first I want to make sure that the prices quoted were not just "for me", and second I want to get quotes from other island sellers who I'm not aware of.

I'd personally see anything under the new purchase price of $1675 as an attempt to get a good deal at the seller's expense. Class 4 vs class 5 shouldn't matter for most normal sims and is largely compensated by the fact that the sim is available today, rather than a month from now.

Grandfathering is a bit of a bet, but it will be at least a year before any price increase, so you can be reasonably sure of saving $1200 just by buying an "old" sim vs a new one.

I recently sold 20 sims, and was in the fortunate position to have so much interest that I could have sold them three times over at 1675+.

Hope that helps.

Don't forget, there's more political capital than $L floating around on the grid.

Sim market price - favours owed = actual price.

Just saying.

Well, suppose you wanted to buy a brand new island today. You'd pay $1675 plus $295 a month.

Buying a used island (before February 1) means the new owner inherits the grandfathered $195 a month until the end of 2007. So the new owner would save $100 a month over the next twelve months. On the other hand, when you buy a brand new island the first month's tier ($295) is free.

That suggests you could pay 1675 + 12 * 100 - 295 = $2580 for a used island and still break even vis-a-vis buying a brand new island from LL. If you do it now, that is, as opposed to a month from now or after February 1.

However, three factors complicate the issue:
* You'd have to confirm the exact day-of-month of the billing anniversary of the used island, and adjust the calculation slightly. Remember if you buy it today and the billing anniversary is tomorrow, you still pay the $195 even if you only had it one day.
* You might not end up keeping the island until the end of 2007. Like the person you're buying the island from, you might eventually get fed up and throw up your hands and want out. If you buy a used island and then try to resell it after Feb 1 2007, any subsequent owner wouldn't inherit the grandfathering so it would be worth only 1675 - 295 = 1380 to him or her.
* A new island is a class 5 server, and a used island is a class 4. So a new island *might* be worth more (and a used island comparatively less). However, at the moment we have no proof or claim of improved performance (notoriously, two different Lindens have posted contradictory information on this point... nobody knows yet). All we really know is that the new servers are more energy efficient.

Still, it would seem that buying a used island for $1675 is a very good bargain.

There might be a mad frenzy of island owners dumping their used islands on January 31 before they turn into pumpkins.


PS,

The fact that LL doesn't handle escrow for used island sales suggests there is a business opportunity for someone to do so. I'd offer to do so, but would only be willing to do this for transactions settled in L$ (not US$). More significantly though, the issue of trust is a very high barrier. Maybe the right person to offer escrow services would be an oldbie who's now out of the island business... maybe Hiro Queso could be interested?

PPS,

I'm sure you're all aware that under the Guide to Private Island Billing, it's possible to have a different Payor and Owner for an island. That means an island "owner" might not even be authorized or able to sell an island to you. Payor information isn't made public by LL. One more reason to insist on escrow instead of paying the island owner upfront and hoping for the best... but then you run the risk that the seller will simply sell to another willing buyer, of which there are probably many at the moment.

If by escrow do you mean a neutral third party becomes involved in the transaction by taking delivery of the Island for say $L1, confirming to both vendor and purchaser he/she has Estate powers, and transferring the Island to the purchaser for the same $L1, with a two fold Linden transfer process, and ultimate payment in Linden dollars from purchaser to third party, to vendor.

That is not a bad idea at all but the third party would need to be prepared to disclose his or her real life identity to both connected parties.

It would be reasonable for the third party to charge a modest commission on such a transaction if all the above is correct.

Finally a revert to "as you were" would be the default in the event of any dispute between vendor and purchaser while the transaction was in progress.

Such a process could offer both parties some peace of mind

Just some comments, other people may also have some ideas

The main problem is that you can't sell estate islands that way; they have to be transferred by LL, for which they charge a fee of US$100. So, involving a third party would require an additional transfer by LL, and with it an additional US$100 charge.

First off: brilliant, studied analysis of the situation - I'm quite impressed.



Let me put it this way. I've done performance testing on *openspace* class 5 sims. I had 27 other witnesses beside myself in the sim and some *very* capable grid wizards on the scene.

Compared to class 4's, performance was in the "obscenely good" range. We had time dilation at .99 for some of the time in an *openspace* class 5 sim, even with it solid full of prims, and 28 avatars trying to be as primmy and scripty as possible. Yes, LSL finally slowed down, but the bulk of the user experience was *very* good.

I have a class 5 regular sim available, but since we were having so much trouble even scratching the performance of the class 5 openspace sim, it was almost pointless to even try affecting the full sim, unless I had a LOT more avatars to help. As it was quite late, I could only muster about 27 friends at the time.

Note that excessive physics or a few other obvious sim-killing tricks will still bring any sim, even a class 5 down to .02 time dilation with ease, but in terms of general overall use, they are awesome.

So - why am I not releasing benchmark stats? Because I'm not foolish. Testing was done with Mystical Cookie of Mystitool fame leading the effort, and we are well aware that there are so many factors, asset server included, that affect performance that any 'hard numbers' would have huge, unknown factors buried within. Explaining how to understand the numbers would be a huge discussion; far more complicated than the stats themselves but critical to understanding anything.

Overall though - a 'thumbs up' to class 5 server performance. It's a good thing.




This is the absolute critical issue. Essentially, sim purchases are a leap of faith - giving some thousands of USD worth of $L to a stranger, for... some decent odds that you'll get a sim. How do you even know they can deliver? You can't.

This is even more complicated when you use "other people's money" - i.e. when collecting $L up front to start a new sim. If your seller defaults, it's not just the money lost, but your *reputation* that gets destroyed!

Worth risking a deal with Joe NeverHeardOfHim avatar?

Considering potential damage to my own reputation should the deal fall through and affect customers - no. I'd maaaybe risk 500 USD, not more.



Ah, and to Something Something - yes, got your email, mulling it over, sounds reasonable enough. Only thing I can say for sure: personally, I've only dealt with the Company directly for sims. Yes, I'm aware that is ridiculously, insanely conservative.

This is what goes through the back of my mind, though: http://www.wirm.net/nightfreeze/part1.html

Caveat Emptor.

Thanks for that Hiro, this sort of feedback is the positive side of BBs. Of course you could do the third party thing with the money (in Lindens) alone but you remove a lot of the control and from a personal view I would not want to be involved in holding other peoples money

Desmond, I read through your linked info, there is truly nothing new under the sun as it is the same as ramping and deramping shares -, I could post some hilarious ramps but strictly speaking they are off topic.

Suffice to say Island transfers can be a fraught area with room for much misunderstanding

I recently posted an interest in buying an old-tier sim and received several offers. Two offers were in the area of 1200, but, due to the lack of an escrow agent, put my money at risk. The third offer with Anshe was for 1600, but it was new tier and payable to her not Linden Lab.

Ultimately I decided to buy directly from Linden Lab. I am pleased to hear that the new class 5 servers seem to perform better than the class 4 servers - this will highly benefit my project.

So, I think it is possible to find a seller at rates around $1200. However, you have to be willing to risk your money a bit.

Don't be so sure. I distinctly remember Phillip Linden skirting around the question of all new islands being class 5 at one of the meetings. I would ask for a guarantee on that before making the purchase.