Is market sell causing the L$ to accelerate upwards?

Ricky and his annual subscription groupies are going to argue that it's just going to go to fictitious number based on annual subscriptions.

Unfortunately, because of 50 L$ stipends, the true value of L$ is 0 (you do not have to pay to get stipends, sorry Ricky! you keep forgetting that simple fact!)

So why didn't we go to 0 before? I believe a part of it had to do with the market not being terrible efficient. The emperor has no clothes, yes, but there were no children around to point this out.

With market sells, I believe jig is up (unfortunately) and this shared hallucination we call virtual reality is getting quickly smashed to pieces.

LL had the power to maintain the illusion. For whatever stupid reason (cash grab?) they have decided to no longer do so.

(a) The inclusion of market sells *does* cause the decline in valuation to accelerate. This was effectively demonstrated here. In that experiment, a model that fit GOM's pre-market sell data required a significant adjustment of one of the model parameters to fit the post-market sell data. I expect no difference here.

(b) The "fictitious" annual subscription-based rate is based on a solid argument, however I'm more than happy to admit that it's not an absolute bottom, and never claimed it was. Given that one can obtain L$50/week for free, you need to consider the opportunity cost associated with farming free basic accounts as a modifier to the annual stipend rate. Until we get a bit more data (preferrably some below the L$361/US$ mark), we're modelling from assumptions though.

Maybe this is too obvious an option... but surely it's possible to limit the amount for sale at any one time?

Let's pick some figures out of the air... no more than L$100,000 in a block, and no more than L$5,000,000 for sale at any one time; if it reaches L$5M then no more sell orders are accepted until it reached L$4.5M. That'll stop people trying to undercut, reduce availability and raise value?

Sure, it might inconvenience a few big traders... but for the good of the overall community I'd say their needs far outweigh half a dozen individuals, who will just have to find better ways of managing their income. 99.9% of the playerbase probably never even have more than L$100,000 - let alone try and sell it.

Lewis

Your suggestion is secondary to the point at hand, and is already more-or-less implemented with the monthly trading limits in place.

A statistic I've actually requested for the economic stats page that hasn't yet materialized is a summary of the L$ balance of avatars by range. That is:

L$0 -- L$1000 X
L$1001 -- L$5000 Y
L$5001 -- L$25000 Z
etc.

That would give us a far better indication of the distribution of wealth within the economy than simply the average balance per account.

Lewis I think you'd be surprised, the number would be higher than you think... I've had balances bigger than that simply from building for people, and I've only been around as long as you. There are some highly skilled people in SL, many way more so than me... therefore, if I can do it, I'd expect quite a lot more other people can do even better.

just curious, what would you estimate the number at Fade? Cause 100,000... thats like... wow! more money than Ive ever seen in my SL lifetime. Wait... my whole lifetime!

That's a stat I'd like to see.

It might seem like a huge number but bear in mind it's less than US$300 - it's really not much to someone in their 30's say, with disposable income and no other significant hobbies. Quite apart from the fact that the rental from a single sim probably comes to more than that every month. It strikes me that such a small scale economy as SL can never be stable when the $L stands to be influenced so significantly by the players/residents/business people who operate at this level and above who really need the scale and stability of a real world economy to function in the long term.

I'm not sure... but watching the Lindex, and numbers of People selling amounts between L$50-100k, I'd say there's a lot more people than just barons doing alright. Also, building is generally probably not as profitable as say animations, or what some talented scripters can ask, or many other things, and I'm still working on my prefabs and furniture for sale.. so that's just from custom jobs, there has to be a lot of people who've done better than me, it's way early days for me. I know people who sell 'stuff', content creators, who've been sitting on over a million. I know people who who've made enough for islands as well, just from doing what they do.

I'd be surprised if it wasn't at least in the 5-10% range, conservatively thinking, but that's totally guessing, all I can is it's likely to be significantly more than 0.01%. I'd really like to know.

And yeah, it's a better balance than I've had in any life also.

I admit, I started trading on Lindex when this was implemented, and was watching the prices carefully every hour. From what I saw, as soon as Buy and Sell limits were implemented, the $L value got stuck at $320/$1 for a bit over 24 hours, before resuming to increase. Based on the graph Lindex provides you with, you'll note that this rise in $L has actually started even before Limit Buy/Sells, and my guess is that happened because it got stuck for almost three days at $300L, and was just compensating for the real value to catch up to the time it lost not inflating for those days. Or perhaps some other economic functions affected it. Either way, it was rising sharply from about the 13th of May, they dipped/leveled for a bit over a day when Buy/Sell Limits were introduced, and is now continung at pretty much the same decline. Right now, the problem that I am noticing is that they are still too few buy orders, which is making them get lower and lower in value as well (people wanting to sell right away get less and less for their money), which is also probably preventing people from using them, instead going back to the Sell Limit orders, undercutting everyne like they used to. I'm trying to slow that down a bit by undercutting the buy orders to at least something reasonable (I don't want people to get ripped off TOO much, so am offering whatever I have at a reasonable exchange rate), but the market is obviously working towards where it's supposed to be, and I can only do so much :/ (appologies to the buyers I'm undercutting)

As for the $0US for the $50L idea, that $50L stimulates the economy the same way that a roll of quarters stimulates a casino economy (you spend that $50l, but want more), plus just adding money to the economy in and of itself is not bad. It's how much is added that's the problem. To OVERLY simply this, if you have one person with $3, and suddenly another person comes in, and is also given $3 out of nowhere, they both have about the same value of $3, since the per capita % has not increased. But if a person has $3, and another peron comes in and gets $6 out of nowhere, or if both of them have $3, and another $3 is created out of nowhere and just thrown in, suddenly everyone's $3's are worth a little less. (don't ask why I used $3. It's next to the 4 key on the keyboard.)

I'm in my 30s, but I have no real disposable income, nor did I have any startup cash other than the the odd 10 or 20 US$ I'd spend once or twice a month before I was earning money, that all went on buying stuff and the land I started out on. That balance is actually after I'd recouped all the money I spent on other people's stuff, and after I'd met my tier obligations for a few months. I simply spent months here when I first started just learning to build, like 12 hours a day. And I haven't been particularly mercenary about it, I'm a shit negotiator, I tend to let people set their price.

I'm only saying this to dispel the notion that you have to be bankrolled to get anywhere in SL, or that only barons and the like make any money. The entry costs are really quite low for most things in SL. My goals have always been modest. I love SL, but my real life situation is such that to own the land I do to build on, I need it to pay it's own way largely. So far, it's gone way better than I'd hoped for on that front. That US$300 or so is a better balance than I ever have for more than a day RL. It's really a matter of finding something you love doing anyway, working hard at it, being a bit sensible in your decisions, and some luck. Honestly, if I can do it, then others are capable of a whole lot more.

I wholeheartedly agree actually. It was just a general observation about relative amounts of money, and personally, my costs have been only my subscription, the rest being like you, every spare hour i had in the day outside of work because I love SL, and not for the purpose of doing business here either.

Actually, there is another thing I have noticed on Lindex. The most amount of $L that gets processed every day is around $8,000,000 to $10,000,000. The amount up for sale is A LOT more than that. This means there aren't enough buyers, and not enough demand. That also means that as totals sold for the day climb up closer and closer to that $8milL daily limit, people get more and more frantic with their sales, trying to undercut each other more and more. As a result, at the beginning of the day the L$ value is pretty much level, but as the day progresses it starts to drop rappidly, loosing about $2L to $3L in value by the end of the day (going from $326/$1US to $328/$1US), with everyone piling up millions on that last lowest price before going to bed. Usually once a certain sale price hits $1,500,000 of $L offered, that price becomes a sort of a wall that can't be broken though, and the $L never returns to that price again. This again just confirms that there is either way too much $L being introduced to the market (too much of it to sell), or not enough of it is being pulled out (too few need to buy). Perhaps, based on this, just about the only thing that will make this trend stop (aside from changes on the part of LL) is when $L value will match what it is worth in time (time waiting to sell it). I have NO idea what that figure is, but it's probably even less than $361L/$1US

More on topic, I was wondering what kind of volumes being traded by limit buys would cause an appreciable acceleration of decline in value. I've made a few round trips today, and from where I've positioned myself on the market, I've managed to get a sense of how much is shifting via limit buys, and I've managed to turn around and resell in a matter of minutes, without moving the price (I'm dealing in pretty small volumes). I can see a few others doing likewise. I'm thinking it might need to be more than seems to be moving currently, but how much more? I'm curious because this is new territory for me.

Oh, and is any of this effect countered at all by the fact that people using market sell, would more than likely be competing on price otherwise if they were using limit sell, since they obviously want to sell in a hurry, and possibly by more than me? (I'm selling right where it's at pretty much).

Sorry to hear about your bad luck.............NOT!

You will have to find a way to get residents to buy Lindens. I dont have a need to buy Lindens today or in the near future. I am going to take apart one of my "premium" hair sets and see if fexi prims can be used. Now it is useless so not a big deal if it gets ruined. Thing looks stupid when worn now. The long hair is as stiff as a Gorean Male in the hen house.

Back to topic, perhaps you should only sell your great content on line at places like slexchange and get real money for your efforts. You might get 10 cents to half a dollar for a good item.

I watch *giggling* as the mighty Linden heads into the sunset and history!

Thank you for your charming and thoughtful post reiterating things that just about everyone already knows about you.

Sorry it's a slow day in Oklahoma.

Really? Cos I haven't had any... my account gained value today, and US$, not L$.

Why don't you try reading a thread, at least to recognise the topic, and what is being discussed, and quit repeating your mean-spirited mantra in every thread you come across, regardless of subject?

Well this is my last posting until tonight as there is REAL work to be done.

Could you put your message in simple eigo for me, onigoshimasu

simple 英語

Surreal I've no idea what that exchange meant, but I'm sure that was a class reply.

応答は美しかった。

I suppose thats a good point, but I was under the assumption we were talking about 100,000 in sales, not bought L. *goes back to reread*

Can i be in your SL will? *bats her eyelashes*

In all seriousness I can see where scripting > building. Just about anyone can build. Well actually, anyone CAN build, its just a matter of sticktoitiveness (wee i made up a word!) Im thinking about learning scripting, just for something new to do in SL. Im not sure my artistic brain can manage it though.

When i get done at work, and if i remember, ill have to take a look at your stuffs.

You know the saying "when hell freezes over?" *laughs* Probably this will happen about the same time RBD quits saying the same thing over and over and over and over and Jaime quits screaming about that pesky sky.




All in jest (well mostly) sometimes this place gets too serious

On this topic, it's hard to tell what people have, but I suspect it's not a whole lot for most people.

I remember when I was still fairly new, there was a page you could go to which would tell you the number you ranked in wealth, and mine was always surprisingly high.

From that I deduced that most people didn't have much money.

coco