prediction US$/L$ rises with ratings change

/3/cb/35541/1.html

Robin announced that ratings over 6 months old will start being wiped after 6 months.

What does this mean?

I think we will see a majority of the rates disappear. Combine this with the $25L/rate update, and we get a slash in bonuses across the board.

what does THIS mean?

It means that everyone in SL will be getting less money from the LL Bank, and that means an overall drop in money supply per player.

My conclusion is that there will be a raise in the US$/L$ rate.

How much? I think we could be seeing a 25-40% drop in weekly stipends. Does this mean a 25-40% rise in the US$/L$ rate? I'm not so sure. At least in the short term, it will take some time for vendors to adjust prices. I know I am hesitant to lower my prices. Ultimately, there will be an adjustment, and people will want/need less L$.

Overall, demand for the L$ is really demand for SL. And it's very volatile, obviously.

But short term, I foresee a warming trend in L$ prices. If I had to throw out a number, I'm going to say... $4.50US/1kL by the end of February.

NOTE: The opinions I express are just opinions and not meant to be used as advice, just a perspective on how I think a market trend will proceed. I am not a professional, nor to I profess to be one.

Actually, the amount of L$ being given out hasnt changed. Historically and currently, the top X percent (in brackets) gets a certain amount of L$. This hasnt changed, just to get in the top X you dont need as many ratings as before.

Good point, indeed, but I've factored that in. I think that people are sitting on so many old ratings, and combined with the 25$L rate now, we will see people drop well below the threshold.

And those that drop from the threshold are gonna be the older player. The newer ones who have been clubbing/rating maddly in the last six months will be the winners. I think its gonna take about a year for it all to even out. But...I am wondering if the old rates will disappear...will that mean we can rerate those we deem worthy of it?
I would love to rate Starax again : ) He is my idol!! *goes all dreamy and *

Indeed, I've been thinking about this, too.

/13/25/35562/1.html#post383047

I agree with Hiro to some degree: Older players with L$ sitting on their account will have to rate each other again and thus more L$ get removed from economy. But I don't expect this send L$ value through the roof.

Clarification - do you see $4.50 as "through the roof"? Because I consider through the roof like, maybe $6 and up.

I disagree...

Sounds like a scheme to make sure poor people do not become rich.

Yes, I'm sure that was Linden Lab's motivation.

That's absurd.

As for me, I am proud to say that I personally have empowered players to become rich. I developed my Super Vendor Kit as a cheap alternative to the kits in SL, that ranged 300-1000L EACH for a decent vendor.

The first month, while I was still developing the kit, I charged 400L for a copyable version and I maybe raked 25kL in a month - paying me essentially $100US for weeks of programming work and testing. I then made it free. I used it to pay for a new video card because SL wasn't liking my Radeon 9500.

Within weeks of making it free, everyone was using free vendors. Now there are a few out there that are free.

Since then, I have gotten dozens and dozens of grateful people who have thanked me for helping them start their small SL business because they were able to use vendors for free. Newbies are probably coming to SL not even realizing that they used to have to buy them. There are hundreds of people using my vendor and I have not made a cent since I released it.

Why did I do this? Because I felt a good sales system was something that should be part of SL, not something to be purchased. I felt if LL would not provide it as part of their software, that someone would have to step forward and make a proper one and make it.

...

And what's great is that there are a lot of talented scripters and builders out there that do similar things - people who make free items and are happy to see everyone enjoy their content / items. They feel people should enjoy Second Life and not have to pay for much. they include people who pay $200 for a private sim with awesome builds. They include people who make free scripts that do some BASIC things in SL like provide dance animations or move elevators or whatnot. They include people who volunteer to be mentors and live helpers who try and help a newbie learn the game faster to be successful

So please, Magnum, take your cynicism toward me and the "rich" of Second life and bury it.

i am not an economy major. but neither are you!

i agree with your conclusion, but i disagree with your proof.

Fair enough. Any reason you can state as to why you disagree?

I think everyone thinks this to some degree.. otherwise some players wouldnt have bought linden dollars to resale right after the price went upt.

But that was last patch, billy. This new patch JUST got announced.

because it has already been stated by philip that the overall stipends pot is being lowered and that the overall float of L$ is being reduced. that is will cause the increase in L$ value. not the rating system. the new rating prices will affect all players similarly. the pot will be divided in the same fashion as always.

hiro what patch? whats up? lol im sorry for making an uneducated comment but whats going on lol

Last patch, they made ratings 1L -> 25L

This coming patch on the 16th will start the clearing of 6 month old rates.

Nope.

Ratings payouts are out of a "pool". It's not an outright pool, but it's similar.

If I have ONE +rating, and everyone else has NO +ratings whatsoever, I'll get the biggest bonus it's possible to get.

Ratings bonuses aren't based on sheer numbers, they're based on where you are compared to everyone else.

So this will only mean that people doing cool stuff now will get bonuses, rather than people who did cool stuff ages ago.

It rewards people for continuing to do cool stuff, rather than doing one cool thing and nothing else.

I don't think the change will affect the L/$ rate THAT much to the point of 4.50 because people have so gotten used to the idea of $4.00 that they simply will not buy Lindens at that price, but simply slow down their economic activity.

I think several things will happen with this rating decay.

First, all kinds of events will spring up that will in fact be ratings parties. The Lindens currently ban events that are designed for the whole purpose of organizing player ratings -- look at their events ROC. They ought to remove this ban, it's impossible to enforce. And if they don't remove it and police it, players will simply devise coded expressions that essentially mean "come on over we're having a ratings party" -- like the speak-easies of yesteryear. Like they'll say "TOP RATED CLUB" which means "COME HERE 'N GETCHER RATINGS" or "All events take place in a positive atmosphere" which means "expect the host to spend at least $25 on rating your appearance just for showing up".

I think without the clubs rating parties, players are already turning to other pursuits, decorating their avs, buying or renting, and spending their money not on the Lindens' extortionist ratings system, but on texture uploads or other things that give them more for their $25.

I doubt L$ are capable of sustaining at $4.50US/1000. This would open up interesting new possibilities for arbitrage using alternate premium accounts.

An annual account costs only $6 a month. This nets you 52 weeks/year of L$500, which works out to L$2,166 per month averaged out. At an exchange rate of $4.50US/1000, this is worth $9.75 US, which is a substantial profit, even factoring in the fact that you have to pay your account fee up front. in addition, you also get a free 512 m^2 plot of land that you can pool into a group.

In simpler terms, you could create several alts, use them to set up a free pool of land to rent out, and sell off all the alts' Lindens on GOM at a substantial profit. Your only costs would be the opportunity cost of paying up front, the risk that Lindens will decline in value, and your time to log in your alts once a week.

You can already do this at the current exchange rate, but it isn't as profitable. If Lindens were to rise that far, I think we would see a lot more of this sort of thing, and all the new Lindens being sold off would push the price back down.

Thanks, Hiro for the free vendors! I got one my first month. Eventually I hope to make something worth putting in it! If you ever feel like making a box office script, I'll give you an awesome free footrub at the spa in barter, if you like. (or heck, I'd even pay ya $L!) Thanks for your contribution, Hiro. ~ Perse

*****

I don't think there is any ceiling for the L$ in the $4 range. When I first started (in april)... First of all, people WERE using alt acct's to make money, because the stipend would sell for more than the cost of the acct. And second, back then, people were sayin' all kinds of things about what you could do if you did this and if you did that and if L$200 = $1, and they used the $200 figure to lowball the math because it was easier to figure in your yead. The reality was actually much better than just $200. Right now, we are at what? L$2501? That's not far away at all. I don't know that this rating thing is going to make the last fifty-linden difference... but if it does, that'd be just fine with me.

Interesting. Thanks for the history lesson.

Hiro, somehow I found myself agreeing with you in this thread. Whats going on?!