As I recently argued, I believe the L$ is still on the way down. Buyers (or the lack thereof) continue to walk the L$ further and further down. Large amounts of sellers (in terms of both absolute offers and L$ transaction size) continue to pressure the L$ to the downside.
Personally, I think recent quasi-climb of the L$ (to L$1,000 = 4 USD) was merely a "dead cat bounce" consolidation of recent losses. Whereas earlier resistance had emerged at a ceiling of L$1,000 = $5.60 USD, it appears as if a new ceiling has been formed at L$1,000 = 4 USD. With a ceiling potentially in, I'm not quite sure where floor may exist. I'm not so brash as others to suggest we may reach levels of L$1,000 = $2 USD, but I could fairly easily see L$1,000 = $3 USD.
As a side note, since the L$ is tied to the USD$, its interesting to note the strength of the Euro (E$) against both currencies. The fact that the L$ is dropping against the USD$, which is dropping against the E$, provides and interesting arbitrage opportunity for our European friends. Any Euro/L$ Traders out there taking advantage of this window?
All the best,
Jacqueline
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L$ Looking Tired (Again) on GOM |
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Jacqueline Richelieu
SL Resident Economist
Join date: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 260
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12-09-2004 11:51
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Siggy Romulus
DILLIGAF
Join date: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 5,711
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12-09-2004 12:03
Didn't you guys just get an economic forum to post this crap on?
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Jacqueline Richelieu
SL Resident Economist
Join date: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 260
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12-09-2004 12:04
Didn't you guys just get an economic forum to post this crap on? Yes, and I believe the 'gals' also received one, as well  |
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Nephilaine Protagonist
PixelSlinger
Join date: 22 Jul 2003
Posts: 1,693
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12-09-2004 12:09
Yes, and I believe the 'gals' also received one, as well Great, move it over there then. This is not the forum that post needs to be in. _____________________
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Siggy Romulus
DILLIGAF
Join date: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 5,711
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12-09-2004 12:11
Yes, and I believe the 'gals' also received one, as well then f*cking use it _____________________
The Second Life forums are living proof as to why it's illegal for people to have sex with farm animals.
I, for one, am highly un-helped by this thread |
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Jacqueline Richelieu
SL Resident Economist
Join date: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 260
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12-09-2004 12:21
then f*cking use it Make me.  tsk tsk tsk... potty mouth, potty mouth... |
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Lecktor Hannibal
YOUR MOM
Join date: 1 Jul 2004
Posts: 6,734
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12-09-2004 12:27
Make me. tsk tsk tsk... potty mouth, potty mouth... He doesn't have to Jeska did _____________________
YOUR MOM says, 'Come visit us at SC MKII http://secondcitizen.net '
Oh, Lecktor, you're terrible. Bikers have more fun than people ! |
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Jacqueline Richelieu
SL Resident Economist
Join date: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 260
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12-09-2004 12:30
He doesn't have to Jeska did At least she's got a cleaner mouth.  |
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Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
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12-09-2004 12:32
Way Down?
What? Thanks to GOM's new-ish recent ticks display, all I see is a channel between 3.80 and 4.00-something. You looking at the right chart? |
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Jacqueline Richelieu
SL Resident Economist
Join date: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 260
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12-09-2004 12:46
Way Down? What? Thanks to GOM's new-ish recent ticks display, all I see is a channel between 3.80 and 4.00-something. You looking at the right chart? Never said it was way down. And check the dates on that chart... doesn't extend back to the halcyon days of the L$. |
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Maxx Monde
Registered User
Join date: 14 Nov 2003
Posts: 1,848
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12-09-2004 13:15
As I recently argued, I believe the L$ is still on the way down. Buyers (or the lack thereof) continue to walk the L$ further and further down. Large amounts of sellers (in terms of both absolute offers and L$ transaction size) continue to pressure the L$ to the downside. Sorry, but I got the impression from this paragraph that you meant 'down'. If that wasn't it, then let me know. If you mean in overall valuation, then maybe I see the point there, but I was looking at trends on a near short-term basis. |
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Alby Yellowknife
Sic Semper Tyrannis
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,148
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12-09-2004 13:18
As I recently argued, I believe the L$ is still on the way down. Buyers (or the lack thereof) continue to walk the L$ further and further down. Large amounts of sellers (in terms of both absolute offers and L$ transaction size) continue to pressure the L$ to the downside. Personally, I think recent quasi-climb of the L$ (to L$1,000 = 4 USD) was merely a "dead cat bounce" consolidation of recent losses. Whereas earlier resistance had emerged at a ceiling of L$1,000 = $5.60 USD, it appears as if a new ceiling has been formed at L$1,000 = 4 USD. With a ceiling potentially in, I'm not quite sure where floor may exist. I'm not so brash as others to suggest we may reach levels of L$1,000 = $2 USD, but I could fairly easily see L$1,000 = $3 USD. As a side note, since the L$ is tied to the USD$, its interesting to note the strength of the Euro (E$) against both currencies. The fact that the L$ is dropping against the USD$, which is dropping against the E$, provides and interesting arbitrage opportunity for our European friends. Any Euro/L$ Traders out there taking advantage of this window? All the best, Jacqueline Jacq is the best.. I wanna roll around in a bed of money and 10-K reports with her.. LOL |
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Lecktor Hannibal
YOUR MOM
Join date: 1 Jul 2004
Posts: 6,734
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12-09-2004 14:07
Jacq is the best.. I wanna roll around in a bed of money and 10-K reports with her.. LOL Wouldn't that be masturbation??  _____________________
YOUR MOM says, 'Come visit us at SC MKII http://secondcitizen.net '
Oh, Lecktor, you're terrible. Bikers have more fun than people ! |
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Hawk Statosky
Camouflage tourist
Join date: 11 Nov 2003
Posts: 175
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12-10-2004 03:04
Never said it was way down. And check the dates on that chart... doesn't extend back to the halcyon days of the L$. All the way back to the sensible starting levels before the land shortage, y'mean? When it was 1$/250L$ and all... _____________________
This .sig has been cancelled due to lack of interest.
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Surina Skallagrimson
Queen of Amazon Nations
Join date: 19 Jun 2003
Posts: 941
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12-10-2004 03:23
All Jaquline is saying is that over the past 2 - 3 weeks the value has slipped steadily by around $0.16 and looks to be continueing. This isn't a sudden drop like we've had in the past and bounced back from.
People are continueing to place sale orders at 1c below the 'current' rate which are not being full filled. This either means they want the US$ quick and are prepared to accept less or there is a general lack of confidence in the L$ and people want rid of them... You decide. The only way to halt this movement would be for people to post sale orders AT the current level, or even slightly higher. So if it continues to drop, you only have yourselves to blame. _____________________
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Surina Skallagrimson Queen of Amazon Nation Rizal Sports Mentor -------------------------------------------------------- Philip Linden: "we are not in the game business." Adam Savage: "I reject your reality and substitue my own." |
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Alby Yellowknife
Sic Semper Tyrannis
Join date: 5 Jun 2004
Posts: 1,148
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12-10-2004 05:26
Supply and Demand dictates the price. How bad you want that L$ or the place is awash in L$ and your pockets are full. So as you unload and others the price drops.
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DNA Prototype
Mad Scientist
Join date: 8 Aug 2004
Posts: 179
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12-10-2004 05:44
I look at GOM daily.... been very steady for a little while.... I have no idea what you are refering to.
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Jacqueline Richelieu
SL Resident Economist
Join date: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 260
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12-10-2004 07:42
All Jaquline is saying is that over the past 2 - 3 weeks the value has slipped steadily by around $0.16 and looks to be continueing. This isn't a sudden drop like we've had in the past and bounced back from. People are continueing to place sale orders at 1c below the 'current' rate which are not being full filled. This either means they want the US$ quick and are prepared to accept less or there is a general lack of confidence in the L$ and people want rid of them... You decide. The only way to halt this movement would be for people to post sale orders AT the current level, or even slightly higher. So if it continues to drop, you only have yourselves to blame. You understand the situation 100%.  If you look at the buy orders, you will see a general weakness - small blocks being requested - as opposed to the sell offers in which large blocks are being offered. |
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Anshe Chung
Business Girl
Join date: 22 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,615
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12-10-2004 07:58
As I recently argued, I believe the L$ is still on the way down. Mmmmm, no. IGE has been able to nicely unload, reducing their stock by 5 million L$, selling around 4.30. Open sale orders below IGE rate on GOM decreased by 30% this week. And several other economic indicator that I don't want disclose don't suggest overvaluation of L$ to me. As a side note, since the L$ is tied to the USD$, its interesting to note the strength of the Euro (E$) against both currencies. The fact that the L$ is dropping against the USD$, which is dropping against the E$, provides and interesting arbitrage opportunity for our European friends. Any Euro/L$ Traders out there taking advantage of this window There is no arbitrage for EUR/L$ trader. If you live in EUR zone and invested in SL the devaluation of US$ means you lost value in terms of EUR. And looking at fiscal policy of US government I don't see how US$ will easily recover. _____________________
ANSHECHUNG.COM: Buy land - Sell land - Rent land - Sell sim - Rent store - Earn L$ - Buy L$ - Sell L$
SLEXCHANGE.COM: Come join us on Second Life's most popular website for shopping addicts. Click, buy and smile  |
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Jacqueline Richelieu
SL Resident Economist
Join date: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 260
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12-10-2004 08:09
Mmmmm, no. IGE has been able to nicely unload, reducing their stock by 5 million L$, selling around 4.30. Open sale orders below IGE rate on GOM decreased by 30% this week. And several other economic indicator that I don't want disclose don't suggest overvaluation of L$ to me. There is no arbitrage for EUR/L$ trader. If you live in EUR zone and invested in SL the devaluation of US$ means you lost value in terms of EUR. And looking at fiscal policy of US government I don't see how US$ will easily recover. Thats the beauty of the market... there can be different theories... in the end we'll see who is right... but with the money supply growing at 3% per week, I'm pretty confident we'll see continued weakness. An arbitrage opportunity DOES exist. For those who take advantage of it now. If you were already invested as the USD$ lost against the EUR, then yeah, it sucks. This devaluation has given rise to the opportunity I am talking about. |
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Anshe Chung
Business Girl
Join date: 22 Mar 2004
Posts: 1,615
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12-10-2004 08:52
An arbitrage opportunity DOES exist. For those who take advantage of it now. If you were already invested as the USD$ lost against the EUR, then yeah, it sucks. This devaluation has given rise to the opportunity I am talking about. You assume that US$ will rise again. But how do you know? If I look at fiscal policy in USA and the fact that foreigners are left holding the US$ bag I could imagine US$ go down even more. _____________________
ANSHECHUNG.COM: Buy land - Sell land - Rent land - Sell sim - Rent store - Earn L$ - Buy L$ - Sell L$
SLEXCHANGE.COM: Come join us on Second Life's most popular website for shopping addicts. Click, buy and smile |
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Jacqueline Richelieu
SL Resident Economist
Join date: 28 Jul 2004
Posts: 260
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12-10-2004 11:42
You assume that US$ will rise again. But how do you know? If I look at fiscal policy in USA and the fact that foreigners are left holding the US$ bag I could imagine US$ go down even more. Good point. And it may. But in the long run, I'm bullish on the world's lone superpower |