Has the L$ peaked?

Has the L$ peaked?

Are the sellers coming back into the market?

I suspect a lot of people bought off the gom and expected to see the L$ jump..

It's possible the L$ jumped *because* there were so many buyers holding on to their L$.

It will be interesting to see these people try to sell and what it might do the the L$.

In fact, I wonder if it might be possible to calculate the value of the L$ based on how much "L$" is in play (being actively bought and sold)

Just because you made a new thread, I'm going to keep bumping the old one.

Do you have a count of the sellers before the weekend and a count of the sellers now? I think you are on the right track by thinking that the price will fall when more $L begin to sell than what is being bought, but that is not the whole story. I think there are two things at work right now.

1. New players are hitting their US$40 buy limits which is going to cause a decrease in demand till the end of the month or the end of testing.

2. The value of the $L has been going down for a long time, the high peaks always get lower and lower suggesting the amount of $L in the system grows much faster than the amount of people in the system. (Note: quality of content makes no difference but prices charged for different quality content could have some effect)

Of course we are going to hit peaks lower than before, though this may not mean that it can't peak higher. We may see the highest peaks not happen until the beginning of the month or until they take off these limitations on buying. The only way the $L will stay in the same area for the long term is if Linden Labs succeeds in controling their sources verses sinks. For that, we'll just have to wait and see if they really made it to that point yet or not.

That's a clever observation. However, I'm not sure that accounts for too much.



Hmm, not sure what you're saying here. The high peaks got pretty high this time around. Philip has committed to a certain amount of L$ per user.

As for content and it's quality.. how is that related?



Hmmm, looking at Tony and Anshe grabbing huge chunks of L$, I really think they made the big bet and now they're trying to cash in their winnings. I think as they do cash in, they're going to walk the L$ down back to 3.50 and lower unfortunately.

Interestingly, we get more of a pile up at each step along the way, though it'll be interesting to see if the pace picks up and it spreads out a bit.

My feeling is that the price of the L$ really is dictated by how much buy & hold occurs. If those buy/hold people sell out the L$ is going to drop.

Who do we replace them with?

1. Virtual Stock market (buy and hold shares looking for dividends)
2. Traders buy up L$ to trade with
3. Businesses who need to have a certain amount of L$ on hand in order to function (casinos, slexchange, land barons, etc)
4. People who hoard L$ to get onto the leaderboard

I wonder what will happen if 4 goes away. Will there be a big sell off?

There is nobody make big bets. IGE dumped 18 mio L$ on the market before Philip's economy changes could have enough time to show effect. We decided to buffer part of IGE sell off to allow SL economy absorb it instead of have L$ crash. It worked very well so far. There is less money stockpiled than 4 weeks ago and it is in hands of more sane actors than before.

When I say a long time, I must mean a longer time than you do. I'm talking about the trend of the $L on GOM over the last year. The trend has been downward for the last year. I think buy and hold tendancies have more of an effect on the short term, and sources and sinks have more of an effect on the long term. An example would be the actions of IGE. When IGE dumped on the market, the price went down for a relatively short time. When their $L orders suddenly disappeared off the market just before the GOM close, the market temporarily went back up. We are still on the upside, it will most likely drop for a while, and then once again bounce back up. The downward trend I'm talking about is the fact that when the market hits these peaks, they are not as high as they were a few months before. Months ago the $L sold for US$4.00/L$1000 and higher. Peaking below that is not a sign that the overall trend has suddenly reversed. If we hit another peak at say US$3.90, then another at say US$4.00 then we might be able to say that the trend has reversed. The trend reversing could be a whole new set of problems. I don't believe I have seen enough to believe the market has already reversed its trend, I'm thinking you believe that you have.

Wow.

If that's true (and why not? Rational self interest) .. that is visionary, cool, and brilliant.

Hats off, is all I can say. Makes me feel like I'm not alone here..

I hate to nitpick, but it was not IGE dumping on the market. As people start flocking to the lindex and more people understand it, I think the trend that was on GOM will continue.

You could be right Korvin. Things are starting to look up. (yup, we're in upsidedownworld)

Do you know who was. If I remember right, their Second Life accounts were suddenly loosing millions of $L and large orders suddenly existed on the GOM market at the same exact time. I guess you can say they weren't dumping, since they didn't leave the orders on when the orders started to sell, whoever they were. They certainly gave the appearance that the only way to sell quick was to sell cheaper though. Do you know who was selling the million dollar blocks?

Is IGE still buying?

I wonder if they're selling on the Lindex?

Last I heard, they are still buying at about 3.45USD/1kL$. I don't think they are selling on LindeX, because for a while you could buy from IGE and sell on LindeX and make a profit