Was it just demand...?

Or was there more to it than that?

Something that occured to me while looking at the market just now is that the current buy orders graph looks just like the sell orders did just before the massive climb... As in, lots of different valued orders, but some of them were very small amounts...

What does it mean? Well, currently all it needs is for L$1M to be sold to market rather than limit sell, and the lowest buy order will be at 323/$.

Take that kind of leap, and apply it to the sell orders... with the same type of distribution, a sudden demand could chew through the sell orders at high speed.

That, I think, is a major part of the sudden and unexpected climb last week...

I would put up a buy order but no cash now.

Hahahah... A theme that is echoed across all of SL... Nobody has money to buy L$, as a result, the L$ will start its decline. Go look at the data, it already started falling yesterday. Who is going to open their wallet and buy? Otherwise, down, down, down...w00hoo..

Buy side certainly does look weak at the moment. In some sense I think the rise started happening when sellers began to repositioned their orders to take advantage of the rising price. Makes it very interesting to watch. Certainly will be putting in a large buy order to strengthen the buy side.

Long holiday weekend.


I was tracking sales very closely for a long time with my West Trade Imports, and noticed a strong buying pattern.



1) Right after USA's Thanksgiving dinner, the evening of the day after, and "ZOMG Sunday" - the Sunday evening of the Thanksgiving holiday. I went from 5 USD days before the holiday to 20 USD days, to 80 USD, all in one day.

2) The post-Christmas buying frenzy - 26 Dec to about 3 Jan.

3) Memorial Day weekend didn't hurt, but I think the weather was too good and people went outside.

4) This weekend was pretty good. I'm more worried about the Caledon sims these days than West Trade, but my guess is that it was really, really hot in a lot of places, and people stayed inside to play SL.


I could be totally wrong, but I'm guessing what finally triggered the correction to $L 300 from $L 330 was a hurricane-sized "weekend effect".

I would concur, Desmond.

Use this opportunity to sell.

Or you'll be crying.

Weird question: What effect did Hurricaine Katrina have on the L$?

Could you elaborate on what you think the weekend effect is. The Thursday peak residents was 7,872 while the next Wendnesday peak was 7,991 every day in between was lower and that is unusual. It appeared to me there were less people playing than a normal weekend..

I think the # of users peak doesn't mean much.

It's the average number of users on over the course of the entire day, for how long, and what those users are doing.

Do I know what I'm talking about?

That's for you to decide.

I was asking how the big weekend effect works. Are there more residents ingame or more merchants away for the weekend and lower selling pressure? I'm new so have seen only 1 holiday and didn't pay any attention.

Bluntly put, I'm not sure.

For me it's on the level of the expression "Mackerel sky and mare's tails, make a sailor furl his sails" - not very scientific but not foolish to be cautious at such times either.

You title your poll ...

"Was it just demand...?"

But then you fail to clearly post it as an option?

I expect the economy will likely float around a bit losing value then gaining value again in short spurts as it see's fit. If people stopped screaming about the economy We'd be better off really things are going fine and the economy seems health. So you get less USD per L but you have more L and as such quite often end up with the same USD i dont see a problem as it really ends up balancing itself out.

Going into last weekend there were only about L$13M worth of sell limit orders open on LindeX, in the past there's usually been about L$25M to L$35M. With daily volume averaging around L$12M to L$13M, and with the supply of open sell limit orders dropping by about L$3M to L$4M a day for the preceding week it was all but certain that the L$ was going to get dramatically stronger against the dollar over the holiday* weekend.

* For those outside the US, last weekend was our Independence Day weekend with many people getting Monday and Tuesday off of work or school.

I voted for demand in the poll, though I tend to think of this market movement more as a result of changes to the supply side of the equation than the demand side. At least in relation to LindeX orders. I haven't explored why the supply on LindeX was reduced to my satisfaction yet... I have some guesses, but I want to see if the numbers support them before I talk about them.

Cheers,
Lawrence