Interesting pattern on LindeX
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Pham Neutra
Registered User
Join date: 25 Jan 2005
Posts: 478
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12-30-2005 23:12
I don't know if anybody else has already commented on this. But while checking out the LindeX in the last days, I observed an "interesting" kind of pattern: There seem to be two or three individuals (or alts) selling smaller amounts of L$ allways one or two points below current market price. As soon as the market settles down at 267 or 268, one, two or three offers at 270 appear. Not suspiciously small, but not huge offers either. Allways around a few 10,000 L$ each. Look at the chart: No sales at 269 but many at 270, then the price settles at 267 - 268 and then a new batch of offers at 270 appears. I am no expert in currency (or stock) exchanges, but from a pure business point of view this does not seem to make much sense to me. If someone was eager to liquidate large L$ holdings one might offer L$ cheap to have them sell faster. But allways offering at 2 points below current exchange?
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nimrod Yaffle
Cavemen are people too...
Join date: 15 Nov 2004
Posts: 3,146
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12-31-2005 01:09
Or someone is trying to crash/create a crash... /130/65/79746/1.html
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Maylin Murakami
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Join date: 24 Sep 2005
Posts: 179
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12-31-2005 01:25
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Maylin Murakami
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Join date: 24 Sep 2005
Posts: 179
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12-31-2005 01:48
theres a mio or 2 more for sale at $265 today is that relevant?
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Pham Neutra
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Join date: 25 Jan 2005
Posts: 478
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01-01-2006 00:32
From: Maylin Murakami theres a mio or 2 more for sale at $265 today is that relevant? Probably not, as there are always lots of L$ to sell for a better rate than current market price. You will see huge blocks for sale at 265, 260, 255 and slightly above 250. What is "interesting" is, when someone usually sells 2 or more points below current market value. happened this morning again. Shortly after midnight, when the market had settled at 265L$/US$ small offers of 10,000 or 20,000 at 270L$/US$ began to appear. Looks definitely as if someone wants to pull the Linden$ down - even though that resident seems to have not enough liquidity to really get this stunt through.
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Siggy Romulus
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Join date: 22 Sep 2003
Posts: 5,711
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01-01-2006 03:20
I agree - interesting - I was watching it for the last few days after the latest monthly 'OMG THE SKY IS FALLING BUT I WON'T GIVE ANY REASONING' post. More interesting is unless you SPECIFY to look at the expert level - you'd never know - as it defaults to the lowest sell value. Interesting again is the above mentioned link was posted as the market was starting to 'turn' Now if you had expert on, you'd dismiss those monthly "OMG THE SKY IS FALLING" posts that show no data - or even speculative reasons as to why as 'they're a tard' But my guess is that just like a spammer, if just one person dumps money down on that (created) lowest value, it's gonna be worth it. Consider: I dump say 5 - 10k down - maybe stir up a ruckus - wait n see who takes the bait - then buy low. I'm not saying that's whats happening - but it is food for though. The moral of the tale: Turn on your expert mode so *YOU* can choose at what rate to sell based on *all* the data. Btw - interesting final point : Exibit A Exibit B (scroll down till you see him post as the wrong account and admit it)
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Maylin Murakami
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Join date: 24 Sep 2005
Posts: 179
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01-01-2006 04:26
Another mio or 2 extra for sale at 266/265 today.
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Pham Neutra
Registered User
Join date: 25 Jan 2005
Posts: 478
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01-01-2006 07:48
From: Siggy Romulus [...]But my guess is that just like a spammer, if just one person dumps money down on that (created) lowest value, it's gonna be worth it.
Consider:
I dump say 5 - 10k down - maybe stir up a ruckus - wait n see who takes the bait - then buy low. [...] Thanks for the link, Siggy. Sorry, but I did not read that old thread thoroughly enough. I usually loose interest in most threads after they start to decline into "angry attack" mode. Maybe that was an error in this case.  I find Shauns theory (of Sally Seller, the L$ seller in a hurry) not a very convincing explanation by the way. This is happening much to regularly at exactly the same price points with very similar L$ amounts, to be just random sales of different residents. It looks like the same (group of) resident(s), smells like such a group, feels like such a group - so maybe it is. The only aspect that makes me wonder is, if this really works with obviously relatively small amounts of cash.
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eltee Statosky
Luskie
Join date: 23 Sep 2003
Posts: 1,258
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01-01-2006 13:27
yup theres a person specifically trying to 'crash' the value of the $L, god knows why, essentially all they are doing is loosing money, tho they were responsable for bringing the price up from 250 to 265, all it takes is enough 'other' people to bite at the new price and it gets very hard to reset it back down... this person has been doin this for well over a month.
whatever their motives, they are determined
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Desmond Shang
Guvnah of Caledon
Join date: 14 Mar 2005
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01-01-2006 14:07
ignoring Lindex comission for a moment (irrelevant anyway): 10k $L divided by 265 $L/USD = 37.74 10k $L divided by 267 $L/USD = 37.45 cost of selling 10k $L for only 2 $L/USD under the market these days: 37.74 - 37.45 = 29 cents. Cost of doing this 3 times per day for 30 days: roughly 30 USD. Profit made, purchasing $L 1M at 2 $L/USD under the market and reselling within 30 days: 1M $L/265 - 1M $L/267 = 28.27 USD even before Lindex fees. So... work your tail off day-trading $L 1M in little bits, 2 points below the market is complete waste of time. Burning dollar bills is far more entertaining, cheaper, and a lot less work. Unless the Lindex really cratered due to this (and it won't), it's a spectacular waste of effort.
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eltee Statosky
Luskie
Join date: 23 Sep 2003
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01-01-2006 14:18
From: Desmond Shang ignoring Lindex comission for a moment (irrelevant anyway): um... 3.5% of all sales gettin cut out by LL means every turn around cycle is 3.5% *MORE* expensive than you indicated... that makes the comission *EXTREMELY* relevant, as the person doing it is going to loose 10x the money you mentioned to that very comission
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Shaun Altman
Fund Manager
Join date: 11 Dec 2004
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01-01-2006 20:34
I tend to think that a much more likely scenerio is that someone just wants to sell their L$ right now, not 2 weeks from now when the rate may well be 280 or 290. So, they offer a discount.
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eltee Statosky
Luskie
Join date: 23 Sep 2003
Posts: 1,258
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01-01-2006 20:42
no, its the same person, its always the same amount, always the same 4-5 cents over it and it happens just about twice a day but specifically when the lindex is showing a 'falling' curve aka it starts to dig into the next lowest 'large' chunk... it doesn *always* catch and reset the price higher but it does every couple of days...
someone who just wanted to sell now could do it a penny over and it would have the exact same result (aka instant sale) *AND* it would be worth more to them...
this is a specific person who specifically is tryin to lower linden value for their own reasons.. .
I know its happened before to some crazy degrees... i got wind of someone trying to 'knock the lindex back to 500' and refreshed the page like mad, saw them list about $200 us worth of lindens therre, bought it, and resold it at 255 within 30 seconds, made $100 in under a minute that day and really pissed someone off... but that just goes to show there are people who are actively tryin to manipulate value, to believe otherwise goes counter to a growing pile of evidence
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Desmond Shang
Guvnah of Caledon
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01-01-2006 21:21
From: eltee Statosky no, its the same person, its always the same amount, always the same 4-5 cents over it and it happens just about twice a day but specifically when the lindex is showing a 'falling' curve aka it starts to dig into the next lowest 'large' chunk... it doesn *always* catch and reset the price higher but it does every couple of days... someone who just wanted to sell now could do it a penny over and it would have the exact same result (aka instant sale) *AND* it would be worth more to them... this is a specific person who specifically is tryin to lower linden value for their own reasons.. . I know its happened before to some crazy degrees... i got wind of someone trying to 'knock the lindex back to 500' and refreshed the page like mad, saw them list about $200 us worth of lindens therre, bought it, and resold it at 255 within 30 seconds, made $100 in under a minute that day and really pissed someone off... but that just goes to show there are people who are actively tryin to manipulate value, to believe otherwise goes counter to a growing pile of evidence Yes you are absolutely right about losing the Lindex fees in my example (they are irrelevant only in the first 2 lines where I make the price difference comparison). So... you are saying someone listed roughly 50k $L, repurchased it, listed it again at 255 and made 100 USD in under a minute? How does that work? Are they simply tricking inexperienced users doing 'sell now' at whatever rate comes up in beginner mode? If so, that's really nasty.
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eltee Statosky
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Join date: 23 Sep 2003
Posts: 1,258
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01-01-2006 21:46
no, i'm saying i heard specifically someone ask on an irc channel 'what would happen to the lindex if i posted at 500 per dollar?'
at that point i just started refreshing like mad, when i saw it come up i bought it all immediately and resold it at 255 per dollar (the going rate) and it cycled through within 30 seconds... he was pissed he didn 'destroy the economy' and i was happy i made some money off someone tryin to wreck things
i just use it as an example of specifically there are actual people trying to actively wreck the lindex rate, for whatever reasons, to dismiss that, is foolhardy
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Torley Linden
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Join date: 15 Sep 2004
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01-01-2006 22:07
While I haven't followed this as closely as I should have, I really enjoy reading Pham's analysis (analyses?) of financial matters and other topics both here and on SLOG.
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Siggy Romulus
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Join date: 22 Sep 2003
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01-02-2006 00:14
From: Desmond Shang ignoring Lindex comission for a moment (irrelevant anyway): . Yeah I also did the math with 50k and an attainable spread - and it worked out at around 3 bucks for you and 6 bucks for LL. But then I thought about it - thats ASSUMING that reselling directly on Lindex is the goal. There are other markets - both currency out of world and investments in world (land). Its far too regular (and identical) for just 'I wanna sell now' after all if you did, you could simply set for 1c lower - beat out other sales in speed because your the lowest level. I think it's definately a planned event - I would say at duping people who are on the default settings to sell at a low level - perhaps to create a 'bubble' and force it down to a more attractive buying price. Motives are yet undecided. But there is a method to the madness.
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Siggy Romulus
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01-02-2006 00:18
From: Shaun Altman I tend to think that a much more likely scenerio is that someone just wants to sell their L$ right now, not 2 weeks from now when the rate may well be 280 or 290. So, they offer a discount. why such a huge one - when the system defaults to the lowest sell? You could easily set for one L$ dollar and acheive the same speed results - and get a better price. But you already know this. I don't buy 'ignorance' either - even a retarded kid won't stick his fingers in a light socket more than 3 times.
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Siggy Romulus
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01-02-2006 00:19
From: Desmond Shang Are they simply tricking inexperienced users doing 'sell now' at whatever rate comes up in beginner mode? If so, that's really nasty.
Yes - thats my supposition.
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