Second Life Forums Archive - $L about to break through the 250 barrier

Ashling Babka

Registered User

Join date: 18 Sep 2005

Posts: 23

11-12-2005 07:21

Well, I've been eyeing the value of the $L for awhile, as I'm sure
most everyone does in this forum. I'm sure I'm not the only one
who's realized it's just a matter of short time now that the buyers
eat their way up to (and past) the L$250 barrier we've seen out
there.

I'm posting this to encourage all sellers to try a little test.
Have a little extra patience this week and don't post any sales
for higher than L$240 per US$1. Some will, but if a majority
of the big sellers don't, then it WILL break faster.

Also, if you currently have large chunks for sale around the
$250-$253 range, think about moving them to the $240 range.

I strongly believe that with a little patience we'll be able to
get those higher returns.

Good luck !

Zapoteth Zaius

Is back

Join date: 14 Feb 2004

Posts: 5,634

11-12-2005 07:31

Surely people are willing to pay what they're willing to pay, and its better to just let the market take its course.

_____________________

I have the right to remain silent. Anything I say will be misquoted and used against me.
---------------
Zapoteth Designs, Temotu (100,50)
---------------

Ashling Babka

Registered User

Join date: 18 Sep 2005

Posts: 23

11-12-2005 14:08

Perhaps.
But I have a strong suspicion that many sellers are putting up $L
for sale around $250 because they feel "that's where it's suppose to be".

If there is a fairly constant (slow increase?) of purchase volume
around 3,000,000 per day, but we have daily sellers trying to unload
2,500,000 per day (on top of the amounts currently seen for sale in
the LindeX), then it will take a LONG time to handle what is posted
daily and THEN eat through the amounts currently posted (1,000,000
at L$252, and 2,000,000 at L$251)

However, the buyers are probably not THAT concerned with a few
pennies difference, and so we'd most likely see the same volume
selling at L$240.

I'm sure most of us spend a LOT of time thinking about this kind of
thing, but I'm sure many of us know that not everyone thinks about
it quite as much.

I'm only bringing up the suggestion so that hopefully more sellers
will see this as a great opportunity to increase their income by
delaying their sale for just a few days.

Rather than post your $L for sale at $253 to under cut the other guy
and get your returns "NOW", let's try a short experiment, and post
our sales around $240. Be patient... and let the few days go by for
people to buy up all the $L around the $250-$252 range, and then
enjoy the greater income!

If, after 4 days this experiment does not work, you can always post
your $L for sale back around $252 and only given up a couple days.

For this to work, however, we need to get as many of the big time sellers
as possible to join in on this experiment, and that is why I'm bringing
this up in the forum

again... good luck!

Cheyenne Marquez

Registered User

Join date: 19 Sep 2005

Posts: 940

11-12-2005 19:51

There's no doubt that if everyone felt compelled to cooperate with your little experiment that this would work for a day or so.

But theres no point because after a day or so it will simply bounce back to where the market will naturally take it.

So it would be an exercise in futility.

I figure why not just let the market work its magic. I'm of the opinion that its headed in that direction anyways.

Don't push it, don't force it, let it happen naturally

blaze Spinnaker

1/2 Serious

Join date: 12 Aug 2004

Posts: 5,898

11-12-2005 20:11

Yeah, please do this so I can sell all my L$ at 250 ... SUCKERS

Anyways. This sort of manipulation leads nowhere..

From: Ashling Babka

Perhaps.
But I have a strong suspicion that many sellers are putting up $L
for sale around $250 because they feel "that's where it's suppose to be".

If there is a fairly constant (slow increase?) of purchase volume
around 3,000,000 per day, but we have daily sellers trying to unload
2,500,000 per day (on top of the amounts currently seen for sale in
the LindeX), then it will take a LONG time to handle what is posted
daily and THEN eat through the amounts currently posted (1,000,000
at L$252, and 2,000,000 at L$251)

However, the buyers are probably not THAT concerned with a few
pennies difference, and so we'd most likely see the same volume
selling at L$240.

I'm sure most of us spend a LOT of time thinking about this kind of
thing, but I'm sure many of us know that not everyone thinks about
it quite as much.

I'm only bringing up the suggestion so that hopefully more sellers
will see this as a great opportunity to increase their income by
delaying their sale for just a few days.

Rather than post your $L for sale at $253 to under cut the other guy
and get your returns "NOW", let's try a short experiment, and post
our sales around $240. Be patient... and let the few days go by for
people to buy up all the $L around the $250-$252 range, and then
enjoy the greater income!

If, after 4 days this experiment does not work, you can always post
your $L for sale back around $252 and only given up a couple days.

For this to work, however, we need to get as many of the big time sellers
as possible to join in on this experiment, and that is why I'm bringing
this up in the forum

again... good luck!

Herzog Svarog

The Wise(ass)

Join date: 9 Nov 2004

Posts: 74

11-13-2005 02:18

Corporations have been shut down and people have gone to jail for a loooonnnngggg time for similar practices in the stock market...it's very similar to insider trading and/or price fixing.

As has been mentioned previously, the market will take us where it will...just let it.

Ashling Babka

Registered User

Join date: 18 Sep 2005

Posts: 23

11-13-2005 16:33

From: Herzog Svarog

Corporations have been shut down and people have gone to jail for a loooonnnngggg time for similar practices in the stock market...it's very similar to insider trading and/or price fixing.

As has been mentioned previously, the market will take us where it will...just let it.

Same has happened to those who gamble, sell sex, etc.

This is SecondLife, not the USA or even planet earth.

There is nothing wrong with encouraging a little patience
to sellers in hopes of speeding up the time it will take to
break through the large barrier amounts around the
$250-$252 range.

JK Warrior

Registered User

Join date: 15 Nov 2005

Posts: 24

11-19-2005 09:45

Unfortunately for all of you who think that manipulation is needed there is another problem you are overlooking or possibly even fueling. The Supply of lindens being sold is a lot greater than the demand to buy. When that happens your Lindens will go down in value until either the demand increases or the supply decreases to balance the total equation. There is nothing that can stop this from happening.

The issue right now is that people have been trying to stop the inevitable. The fact remains that people are currently buying around 3 million per day give or take, however the amount of Linden being posted for sale each day is far greater. If you are looking to sell the best thing you can do is to sell at the rate you are most likely to find a buyer for instead of creating a wall of currency that will just get thicker due to supply and demand issues. If you do not want to sell at that rate than pull your money out of the market and wait too see what happens. Maybe you will catch a break and it will hit the rate that you feel is right for you to sell at or it may not, that is the risk that we take when trading currency.

When that wall starts to get bigger than the average daily volume of sales it becomes less likely that Linden will gain value beyond that point until the demand increases enough to eventually break down that wall of currency, and it will have to increase dramatically. If you are not looking to sell right away then get your money out of the market. There is no point to keep it in there. It does more harm than it does good. Wait for the market to take it's course and sell when you think the time is right. If you really are watching the market as some say than you will have seen that the wall of currency posted at 251/1 has already gained well over a million dollars in a day's time in addition to the 3 million plus that is posted for sale each day at the higher ratios. That should be all the proof you need to see that it may not be a good idea to keep posting at that ratio.

Anyway, this is just my two cents.

Frank Lardner

Cultural Explorer

Join date: 30 Sep 2005

Posts: 409

Bernard Baruch on markets

11-19-2005 12:18

If I recall, a callow youth once cornered the legendary financier Bernard Baruch, to ask him what he thought the market was going to do.
His answer: "It will fluctuate."

This seems silly and obvious, until you think deeper about it and begin to suspect that such was the extent of Baruch's ability to predict its direction. And, if you can't predict it, how do you manipulate it?

Millions have been spent by individuals and governments trying (in vain) to affect monetary exchange rates, either because it is going against government or corporate plans or in order to make money on the move. In the end, the market absorbs the efforts, then returns to its equilibrium level, the place where it was going anyway.

Markets will go where they want, and they have a steady habit of eating up the capital of those who try to go against them.

But playing the markets is a great way to come to understand their power and mystery.

Frank

_____________________

Frank Lardner

* Join the "Law Society of Second Life" -- dedicated to the objective study and discussion of SL ways of governance, contracting and dispute resolution. *
Group Forum at: this link.

Dark Korvin

Player in the RL game

Join date: 13 Jun 2005

Posts: 769

11-19-2005 14:12

From: JK Warrior

Unfortunately for all of you who think that manipulation is needed there is another problem you are overlooking or possibly even fueling. The Supply of lindens being sold is a lot greater than the demand to buy. When that happens your Lindens will go down in value until either the demand increases or the supply decreases to balance the total equation. There is nothing that can stop this from happening.

The issue right now is that people have been trying to stop the inevitable. The fact remains that people are currently buying around 3 million per day give or take, however the amount of Linden being posted for sale each day is far greater. If you are looking to sell the best thing you can do is to sell at the rate you are most likely to find a buyer for instead of creating a wall of currency that will just get thicker due to supply and demand issues. If you do not want to sell at that rate than pull your money out of the market and wait too see what happens. Maybe you will catch a break and it will hit the rate that you feel is right for you to sell at or it may not, that is the risk that we take when trading currency.

When that wall starts to get bigger than the average daily volume of sales it becomes less likely that Linden will gain value beyond that point until the demand increases enough to eventually break down that wall of currency, and it will have to increase dramatically. If you are not looking to sell right away then get your money out of the market. There is no point to keep it in there. It does more harm than it does good. Wait for the market to take it's course and sell when you think the time is right. If you really are watching the market as some say than you will have seen that the wall of currency posted at 251/1 has already gained well over a million dollars in a day's time in addition to the 3 million plus that is posted for sale each day at the higher ratios. That should be all the proof you need to see that it may not be a good idea to keep posting at that ratio.

Anyway, this is just my two cents.

I think the thing you miss is that there are people that benefit from the $L going down in value then popping back up. There is a good chance that many people that add to the wall are doing it on purpose, so they can buy $L cheap when the price falls, and then sell higher when there is no wall. Right before GOM closed there was a wall of currency that suddenly disappeared one day without trade volume increasing or a large part of the wall being sold off that lead to the higher prices we are at now. I assume we are now in the phase of the cycle when it is better to build walls again.

If the wall we see now is not intended for actual sale, which is less likely now that we are at a peak, then it will disapper if large chunks start disappearing.

$L about to break through the 250 barrier
Ashling Babka Registered User Join date: 18 Sep 2005 Posts: 23	11-12-2005 07:21 Well, I've been eyeing the value of the $L for awhile, as I'm sure most everyone does in this forum. I'm sure I'm not the only one who's realized it's just a matter of short time now that the buyers eat their way up to (and past) the L$250 barrier we've seen out there. I'm posting this to encourage all sellers to try a little test. Have a little extra patience this week and don't post any sales for higher than L$240 per US$1. Some will, but if a majority of the big sellers don't, then it WILL break faster. Also, if you currently have large chunks for sale around the $250-$253 range, think about moving them to the $240 range. I strongly believe that with a little patience we'll be able to get those higher returns. Good luck !
Zapoteth Zaius Is back Join date: 14 Feb 2004 Posts: 5,634	11-12-2005 07:31 Surely people are willing to pay what they're willing to pay, and its better to just let the market take its course. _____________________ I have the right to remain silent. Anything I say will be misquoted and used against me. --------------- Zapoteth Designs, Temotu (100,50) ---------------
Ashling Babka Registered User Join date: 18 Sep 2005 Posts: 23	11-12-2005 14:08 Perhaps. But I have a strong suspicion that many sellers are putting up $L for sale around $250 because they feel "that's where it's suppose to be". If there is a fairly constant (slow increase?) of purchase volume around 3,000,000 per day, but we have daily sellers trying to unload 2,500,000 per day (on top of the amounts currently seen for sale in the LindeX), then it will take a LONG time to handle what is posted daily and THEN eat through the amounts currently posted (1,000,000 at L$252, and 2,000,000 at L$251) However, the buyers are probably not THAT concerned with a few pennies difference, and so we'd most likely see the same volume selling at L$240. I'm sure most of us spend a LOT of time thinking about this kind of thing, but I'm sure many of us know that not everyone thinks about it quite as much. I'm only bringing up the suggestion so that hopefully more sellers will see this as a great opportunity to increase their income by delaying their sale for just a few days. Rather than post your $L for sale at $253 to under cut the other guy and get your returns "NOW", let's try a short experiment, and post our sales around $240. Be patient... and let the few days go by for people to buy up all the $L around the $250-$252 range, and then enjoy the greater income! If, after 4 days this experiment does not work, you can always post your $L for sale back around $252 and only given up a couple days. For this to work, however, we need to get as many of the big time sellers as possible to join in on this experiment, and that is why I'm bringing this up in the forum again... good luck!
Cheyenne Marquez Registered User Join date: 19 Sep 2005 Posts: 940	11-12-2005 19:51 There's no doubt that if everyone felt compelled to cooperate with your little experiment that this would work for a day or so. But theres no point because after a day or so it will simply bounce back to where the market will naturally take it. So it would be an exercise in futility. I figure why not just let the market work its magic. I'm of the opinion that its headed in that direction anyways. Don't push it, don't force it, let it happen naturally
blaze Spinnaker 1/2 Serious Join date: 12 Aug 2004 Posts: 5,898	11-12-2005 20:11 Yeah, please do this so I can sell all my L$ at 250 ... SUCKERS Anyways. This sort of manipulation leads nowhere.. From: Ashling Babka Perhaps. But I have a strong suspicion that many sellers are putting up $L for sale around $250 because they feel "that's where it's suppose to be". If there is a fairly constant (slow increase?) of purchase volume around 3,000,000 per day, but we have daily sellers trying to unload 2,500,000 per day (on top of the amounts currently seen for sale in the LindeX), then it will take a LONG time to handle what is posted daily and THEN eat through the amounts currently posted (1,000,000 at L$252, and 2,000,000 at L$251) However, the buyers are probably not THAT concerned with a few pennies difference, and so we'd most likely see the same volume selling at L$240. I'm sure most of us spend a LOT of time thinking about this kind of thing, but I'm sure many of us know that not everyone thinks about it quite as much. I'm only bringing up the suggestion so that hopefully more sellers will see this as a great opportunity to increase their income by delaying their sale for just a few days. Rather than post your $L for sale at $253 to under cut the other guy and get your returns "NOW", let's try a short experiment, and post our sales around $240. Be patient... and let the few days go by for people to buy up all the $L around the $250-$252 range, and then enjoy the greater income! If, after 4 days this experiment does not work, you can always post your $L for sale back around $252 and only given up a couple days. For this to work, however, we need to get as many of the big time sellers as possible to join in on this experiment, and that is why I'm bringing this up in the forum again... good luck!
Herzog Svarog The Wise(ass) Join date: 9 Nov 2004 Posts: 74	11-13-2005 02:18 Corporations have been shut down and people have gone to jail for a loooonnnngggg time for similar practices in the stock market...it's very similar to insider trading and/or price fixing. As has been mentioned previously, the market will take us where it will...just let it.
Ashling Babka Registered User Join date: 18 Sep 2005 Posts: 23	11-13-2005 16:33 From: Herzog Svarog Corporations have been shut down and people have gone to jail for a loooonnnngggg time for similar practices in the stock market...it's very similar to insider trading and/or price fixing. As has been mentioned previously, the market will take us where it will...just let it. Same has happened to those who gamble, sell sex, etc. This is SecondLife, not the USA or even planet earth. There is nothing wrong with encouraging a little patience to sellers in hopes of speeding up the time it will take to break through the large barrier amounts around the $250-$252 range.
JK Warrior Registered User Join date: 15 Nov 2005 Posts: 24	11-19-2005 09:45 Unfortunately for all of you who think that manipulation is needed there is another problem you are overlooking or possibly even fueling. The Supply of lindens being sold is a lot greater than the demand to buy. When that happens your Lindens will go down in value until either the demand increases or the supply decreases to balance the total equation. There is nothing that can stop this from happening. The issue right now is that people have been trying to stop the inevitable. The fact remains that people are currently buying around 3 million per day give or take, however the amount of Linden being posted for sale each day is far greater. If you are looking to sell the best thing you can do is to sell at the rate you are most likely to find a buyer for instead of creating a wall of currency that will just get thicker due to supply and demand issues. If you do not want to sell at that rate than pull your money out of the market and wait too see what happens. Maybe you will catch a break and it will hit the rate that you feel is right for you to sell at or it may not, that is the risk that we take when trading currency. When that wall starts to get bigger than the average daily volume of sales it becomes less likely that Linden will gain value beyond that point until the demand increases enough to eventually break down that wall of currency, and it will have to increase dramatically. If you are not looking to sell right away then get your money out of the market. There is no point to keep it in there. It does more harm than it does good. Wait for the market to take it's course and sell when you think the time is right. If you really are watching the market as some say than you will have seen that the wall of currency posted at 251/1 has already gained well over a million dollars in a day's time in addition to the 3 million plus that is posted for sale each day at the higher ratios. That should be all the proof you need to see that it may not be a good idea to keep posting at that ratio. Anyway, this is just my two cents.
Frank Lardner Cultural Explorer Join date: 30 Sep 2005 Posts: 409	Bernard Baruch on markets 11-19-2005 12:18 If I recall, a callow youth once cornered the legendary financier Bernard Baruch, to ask him what he thought the market was going to do. His answer: "It will fluctuate." This seems silly and obvious, until you think deeper about it and begin to suspect that such was the extent of Baruch's ability to predict its direction. And, if you can't predict it, how do you manipulate it? Millions have been spent by individuals and governments trying (in vain) to affect monetary exchange rates, either because it is going against government or corporate plans or in order to make money on the move. In the end, the market absorbs the efforts, then returns to its equilibrium level, the place where it was going anyway. Markets will go where they want, and they have a steady habit of eating up the capital of those who try to go against them. But playing the markets is a great way to come to understand their power and mystery. Frank _____________________ Frank Lardner * Join the "Law Society of Second Life" -- dedicated to the objective study and discussion of SL ways of governance, contracting and dispute resolution. * Group Forum at: this link.
Dark Korvin Player in the RL game Join date: 13 Jun 2005 Posts: 769	11-19-2005 14:12 From: JK Warrior Unfortunately for all of you who think that manipulation is needed there is another problem you are overlooking or possibly even fueling. The Supply of lindens being sold is a lot greater than the demand to buy. When that happens your Lindens will go down in value until either the demand increases or the supply decreases to balance the total equation. There is nothing that can stop this from happening. The issue right now is that people have been trying to stop the inevitable. The fact remains that people are currently buying around 3 million per day give or take, however the amount of Linden being posted for sale each day is far greater. If you are looking to sell the best thing you can do is to sell at the rate you are most likely to find a buyer for instead of creating a wall of currency that will just get thicker due to supply and demand issues. If you do not want to sell at that rate than pull your money out of the market and wait too see what happens. Maybe you will catch a break and it will hit the rate that you feel is right for you to sell at or it may not, that is the risk that we take when trading currency. When that wall starts to get bigger than the average daily volume of sales it becomes less likely that Linden will gain value beyond that point until the demand increases enough to eventually break down that wall of currency, and it will have to increase dramatically. If you are not looking to sell right away then get your money out of the market. There is no point to keep it in there. It does more harm than it does good. Wait for the market to take it's course and sell when you think the time is right. If you really are watching the market as some say than you will have seen that the wall of currency posted at 251/1 has already gained well over a million dollars in a day's time in addition to the 3 million plus that is posted for sale each day at the higher ratios. That should be all the proof you need to see that it may not be a good idea to keep posting at that ratio. Anyway, this is just my two cents. I think the thing you miss is that there are people that benefit from the $L going down in value then popping back up. There is a good chance that many people that add to the wall are doing it on purpose, so they can buy $L cheap when the price falls, and then sell higher when there is no wall. Right before GOM closed there was a wall of currency that suddenly disappeared one day without trade volume increasing or a large part of the wall being sold off that lead to the higher prices we are at now. I assume we are now in the phase of the cycle when it is better to build walls again. If the wall we see now is not intended for actual sale, which is less likely now that we are at a peak, then it will disapper if large chunks start disappearing.

Welcome to the Second Life Forums Archive

$L about to break through the 250 barrier