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How Far will it go???? |
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MartAnthony Varmint
Registered User
Join date: 26 Dec 2004
Posts: 75
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05-24-2006 14:55
Its lower everytime I look. will we see 400, 450 soon?
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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
![]() Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
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05-24-2006 17:16
My prediction: L$ 500 / $1 USD.
The fact that L$60,000,000 are printed every month and added to the money supply is just too overwhelming. In one year, the entire money supply will grow by 120%. How can inflation (or devaluation) NOT be expected? |
Dnate Mars
Lost
Join date: 27 Jan 2004
Posts: 1,309
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05-24-2006 17:21
I see it going to ~360l/USD after that point it won't make any sense to get a premium account for the 26kL.
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Jamie Bergman
SL's Largest Distributor
![]() Join date: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 1,752
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05-24-2006 17:54
"Devaluations will go on as long as they have to..."
Rule #3 - Economic (fight) club |
Tek Harbinger
SS Maggot Elite
![]() Join date: 19 Oct 2005
Posts: 49
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05-24-2006 18:20
How long will it take for people to stop posting this kind of thread every 5 minutes?
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elka Lehane
WOWAWIWA
![]() Join date: 30 Mar 2005
Posts: 983
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05-24-2006 18:51
How many licks...
Oh wait, nvm. _____________________
View my profile inworld for direct teleports to all !BF! locations :3
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kerunix Flan
Registered User
Join date: 3 Sep 2005
Posts: 393
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05-24-2006 20:06
I see it going to ~360l/USD after that point it won't make any sense to get a premium account for the 26kL. What about land ? at 360L$ everybody will switch to basic and rental ? pssst, jamie, i have a new thing for you : buy buy buy private island!!111 |
Lewis Nerd
Nerd by name and nature!
![]() Join date: 9 Oct 2005
Posts: 3,431
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05-24-2006 23:42
What about land ? at 360L$ everybody will switch to basic and rental ? It's the land rental business that's the cause of the problem. What other reason, what other possible source can there be, for tens of millions of L$ being cashed out on a regular basis. causing blocks on the market because they have to sell and sell NOW because of the impending tier payment? 1,000 premium accounts would never be all cashing out their weekly stipend at the same time - but one land baron collecting 1,000 rents of, say L$250 a week, cashing out a quarter of a million L$ a week... week after week... Think about it. Lewis _____________________
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Chri5 Somme
:)
Join date: 18 Nov 2005
Posts: 204
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05-25-2006 00:31
How long will it take for people to stop posting this kind of thread every 5 minutes? when ever the market stops crashing. |
Anna Bobbysocks
Registered User
Join date: 29 Jun 2005
Posts: 373
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05-25-2006 00:39
yeah, that's an interesting consequence of LL's foolishness. People might stop buying acounts becuase the L$ subscription is worthless.
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Svar Beckersted
Registered User
Join date: 14 Apr 2006
Posts: 783
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Here is a prediciton
05-25-2006 02:52
I recorded the 11:00 data for the 23rd of May to compared it to the 21st of May data hoping to be pleasently suprised. Well I was suprised and shocked at the same time. Here are the numbers. On 21 May there were L$23,909,751 offered for sale at or above L$280/1 by 23 May that number had grown to L$28,921,593 for a difference of L$5,011,842. The USD equivalent of that L$5,011,842 is $15,305.
Now here is the sad part if that last piece of news wasn't bad enough, looking at the numbers for L$315/1 and above, we see that on 21 May there were only L$2,919,165 offered for sale. By 23 May that number had grown to L$10,262,001 for a difference of L$7,342,836. That means roughly L$2.3 million were moved up from below the L$315/1 offering rate in addition to the extra new L$5 million over the amount purchased during the two day period. The USD equivalent of that L$7,342,836 is $23,042. How much L$ was purchased? Well by our old metric there were $62,909 worth of L$ purchased but the way the data is being presented we can't tell how much L$ was sold twice the same day. However I am prepared to guess that it was as much as last week at this time. Last week for the same two days $58,223 worth of L$ were purchased or up to $4,686 worth of L$ were recycled and sold twice. What does all this mean. It means that $81,265 worth of L$ was offered at L$315/1 or higher and only $58,223 worth of L$ were purchased. Ok, how did we do on the 24th? Since all L$ is being sold above L$315/1 anyway I'll just report those numbers. On 24 May the L$315/1 and above number stood at L$10,996,912 for an equivalent value of $34,357. The 23 May figure was L$10,262,001 for an equivalent value of $32,303. That is only $2,054 growth from the 23rd to the 24th on a day when $34,008 worth of LS were sold and up to $4000 was recycled so about $30,000 was purchasing about $32,000 worth of new L$. Lets see 32 divided by 30 is 1.0667 so if I take the highest rate listed from the data and multiple it by 1.0667 I should have a number. The highest exchange rate in the 24 May data was L$327/1 so that times 1.0667 yields L$348.8/1. Well there you have it folks if $30,000 in new money comes into the market every day and the sellers keep posting sell orders at the current rate the maximum exchange rate shouldn't exceed L$350/1 for a sustained period. |