Math?

July the ammount of sources outweighed sinks just shy of 40m

July Supply Linden Sales were 660,718L$

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We are 4 days into August as of this post and the Supply sales are almost 1m

Assuming it continues at this rate of lets say 1m extra every 5 days that should in theory put the supply sales at 6m

and

5 Tuesdays in Aug. 2006 with a first week stipend of 13,120,400 for the first week
13,120,400 x5 = 65,602,000

Not counting "Other", Land, or Referral Bonus... That is a total of 71.6m in sources.


Just comparing stipend and supply sales (July to Aug estimations as above) that's a difference of 1,125,742 snapshots / uploads.

Do we use the snapshot tool more... or less... since the UI change?

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My amateur advice, sell asap... anyone disagree or have happier math for sellers, I would like to see it.

(P.S. Math and economics isn't my strong point)

There's at least one thing you're missing out... there's also been some significant increase in population as well.

I've not seen the growth figures recently, but SL typically grows more per month than most first world countries do per decade as a percentage. Sinks vs. supply and keeping them balanced makes sense with a stable population. If you go back and look at the numbers that have you so horrified, you'll probably find very similar numbers for the last 6 months or so, worse in many of them in fact, because new basics haven't got a stipend in the last two months or so, new premiums get only L$400/week now.

In that 6 months we've seen the currency go in both directions. In fact the 90 day numbers show that nicely too. You could be right, and past performance etc... but the big crash, at the start of the 90 day graph, and the much smaller one about a fortnight ago tie nicely to the announcements that LL was changing the terms so it could sell L$ on LindeX and the announcement they were going to start.

That doesn't mean the price won't slide in future, but the history of the currency with supply outstripping sinks like that does show changes over time but has been around the 300 mark since March with that one notable exception when the market ran scared following the announcement of the change to TOS for LindeX despite a number of doom-sayers predicting it will fall through the floor and keep falling.

I'm not an economist, I'm a scientist by background. When the theory suggests one thing and the facts say something else has happened, there's a flaw in the theory. In this case in the underlying assumptions.

I dunno, 4 days in and already LL has sold almost 1m L$

It's an unknown element being thrown into the mix and 1m in 4 days makes me a bit skeptical on month end impact.

But definitely there is Avatar growth, but is it a user base increase? and what is the customer retention rate?

Certainly there is an increase in accounts, but how many are alts? How many stay to buy / sell L$?

Im not saying it's a panic situation but certainly some cause for concern, I do think it will continue to fall albeit slowly with occasional bounces, that goes without saying. I'm guessing the overall curve I think will be a steady decline

Nobody is going to learn until it is too late... The money supply increases are unsustainable. Even if people proclaim, "increased population requires a increase on money supply", they aren't taking into consideration what happens when the population begins to decline. You end up with an over supply that gets dumped on the market.

Linden Dollars should be constrained by something outside of LL's control. Or at least a policy they abide by. Something like, "L$1,000,000 New Linden Dollars for every 65,000m2 Sold". So if Sims aren't being sold, dollars aren't being created. Thus causing the money supply to be controlled by the economic growth of SL.

But who cares... You've got the Leftist who want as many new dollars printed and given out for free as possible. You've got LL selling dollars they print with the push of button for no good reason, other then to fill their RL bank account. And you've got those wearing blinders saying, the economics of SL are perfect now and will be in the future. Onwards and Upwards. You can't fight that steam roller. It'll just have to crash before lessons can be learned.

LL is only going to be selling $10,000 US per month, they've already sold $5000 and the Lindex didn't even feel it. In fact, the value of the Linden has increased in the past week.

Market is looking good, glad I was wrong, but Im still skeptical with one week to go....



Maximillian --- So they are selling 10k USD worth of L$ per month... how would anyone know for sure?? they could sell a substantial amount more then 10k worth and claim it among the up/down value of L$...

What does USD amount have to do with in world demand?? The Lab could have at least tried to disguise it's booze and hookers fund...