6231 L$ per user to 4960 L$ per user

By my calculations the per capita L$ has gone from 6231 to 4960.

This is simply taking total supply and dividing it by total users in the last 60 days.

June 28th:
725,126,108/146,177=4960 L$ per user.


May 5th
649912276/104292=6231 L$ per user.


Darn impressive. This should create some buying pressure on the L$.

Depends, how many are alts that will never buy anything?

The assumption in real world economics is every person alive in a country is a consumer. This assumption has no translation in to virtual worlds where one consumer may be represented by one or 100 identities. I would focus more on how much money is flowing in to, around, and out of SL.

I think the strategy that LL is employing, and it makes sense to me, is to generate demand for the L$.

By reducing per capita accounts, there will be more people clamoring for L$ in order to participate in SecondLife.

Once the L$ starts to increase in value, LL can start selling sinks on the Lindex (a tax on the economy, for sure, but LL is a for profit company after all).

There are probably a few alts in the recent numbers, I'll give it that, but given the 50/50 us/international split and the jump in online concurrency numbers I suspect we are seeing a real increase in population.

Considering the abroad users weren't registered SL citizens until now precisely because they didn't have cc/paypal account needed to register, what makes you think these very people are in position to purchase anything off Lindex? They still lack technical means to do that.

so calculations can't be accurate b/c you have no way of knowing how many alts are same person.....

That seems a big fall in per capita to me and perhaps is why the Lindex stablized or is even slightly strengthening. ALTS or not, the numbers of users online at one time has gone up.

Well, they can purchase the currency by working or socializing or a number of other ways that generate demand for the L$.

I wouldn't be too surprised as well to see secondary markets which specialize in serving customers without traditional means of payment.

I have to say, my parcel traffic numbers have significantly increased lately and I'm seeing a lot more people around. Anecdotal evidence to be sure, but interesting nonetheless.

Ok so per capita has fallen 20%. I would find it hard to believe that 20% of the population was ALTS created in the past month.

Actually, per capita is going up because you have to factor out the deadbeat accounts from that 300,000 number. Don't forget to take out all the alts too... And per capita is going up because of inflation. People aren't getting richer, they are just ending up with more L$ in their pocket, making the L$'s purchasing power much less..

What 300,000 Number? He's using users from the last 60 days.

The market data for the last month would seems to disagree with you there.

Interestingly enough.. there is a flip side to the equasion.

Credit-cardless users (deadbeats if you prefer) may start competing for L$ in SecondLife by offering their own goods and services. While most won't be creating anything necessarily more significant than yet more printed tee-shirts... some may come up with enticing ways to fleece other SLers of their L$.... ultimately creating more of a demand for L$ at the lindex.

And if said credit-cardless user doesn't have paypal or some other means to cash out... they may just end up spending the L$ they earn in game on rent or other empowering things which will channel the L$ straight back to the same mogels that dominate the market now.

Less bying power? No. More volume? Yes. Sounds fine to me.

And the location of the Unique "Active" users report of accounts in the last 60 days so those numbers can be verified?

Hardly matters. As long as even _some_ new members are 'real people' rather than alts, since most of them don't receive any stipends the average amount of money available to SL resident _is_ going down in comparison to earlier situation where eveyone was getting stipends. Consider:

* earlier situation: everyone getting a meal a week
* current situation: some people getting a meal a week

doesn't take rocket scientist to figure out how it'd result in relatively less food on average per number of active residents.

I'd be interested in seeing a number which is something like this:

Total currency / running 7 day average of peak number of users online

or

Total currency / running 7 day average of average number of users online*

*randomly sampled value taken apx once an hour.

Keiki, I'll give you just 1 number the shows a significient increase in online users. My favorite day, Tuesday, shows the peak number of online users for any given week.

5/16- 6889
5/23- 6986
5/30- 6987
6/6 - 7017
6/12 -7269 actually a Monday somthing odd happened that Tuesday
6/20 -7479
6/27 -8008

The increase from 5/16 to 6/27 was 16% in just 6 weeks.

For interest's sake, I eyeballed total population and concurrent numbers off this page and performed a nonlinear regression.

The result is that peak concurrent users (a good proxy for total number of active accounts -- my numbers estimate that peak concurrent users is around 20% of the total number of active users) scales as roughly the square root of the total number of accounts (from the front page). In other words, for the number of active users to double, you need the total number of accounts to increase by roughly four times. The actual regression equation I got from my rough numbers is:
total active users = 5 * peak users = 38.15 * (total number of accounts)^0.5524
with an R^2 of 0.9758.

if anyone has more complete total- and peak-population numbers, I'd love to get ahold of them so I can do a more rigorous analysis. Send me a PM, or post the info here!

Ricky, I have a large Excel file where I have been gathering data on the hour when I'm online and that includes the residents logged in, I can delete everything except the residents data and make it much smaller if you want it. I'm not sure how to get the Excel file to you though.

Thanks, Svar. If you turn on private messages, I can send you my address where you can email it to.

I was just looking how to do that, do I have to be logged in and change my profile ingame?

You should be able to do it under your forum preferences menu....

I sent you a PM.