Linden Raising like a ballon!!!

Seems that the spate a panic selling is over and the Linden has managed to struggle up against the nay-sayers. And I'll admit I was one of them.

I believe the introduction of the Currency Statistics surprised people with the amount of Lindens in circulation. Linden Lab's announcement of a change in the TOS to allow them to print Lindens paniced some people and the result was predictable. Frankly that change is mostly a non-issue and just provides them with a good tool to manage the currency effective which is a critical need in the SL economy. The rebound of the currency is an excellent example of the strength of the SL economy and gives me a great deal more confidence in it.

I do think Linden Labs should make one change that might give people a better sense of the size of the economy. All the currency statistics are shows in Lindens yet on the welcome page the daily transactions are in US dollars. I would suggest changing that to Lindens and perhaps below it showing it converted to Dollars, Euros, Pounds and Yen. I know of several people who didn't realize that that one figure was in dollars and they were comparing apples to oranges (Lindens to Dollars).

I have a much greater respect for the Linden now. Me - I'm hanging onto my Lindens, they seems to be getting more valuable by the minute!

I'm glad someone admited it.
Now i have a question : WHY ??? ermm... i mean : WHY ???

I don't see any clear reason to really panic.

There are two reasons for the panic (at least).

One, I don't think anyone would deny the L$ market is rather volatile, and although the data and their significance are arguable it is a pretty fundamental economic truth that if supply increases, prices fall. LL says it's going to make and print more L$, that's more supply, OMG, the prices are going to fall (or rise for Lewis and Jonas) and the sellers of the L$ (that they need too) are going to get less for their L$, so sell NOW before it really crashes and burns. This one I can *sort* of understand - my tier, which I tend to pay from cashing out L$ is due *next* week fortunately for me, if it was due this week I'd have been panicking though! Still not crash selling though.

Secondly there are a number of people that have plausible looking analyses that suggest, but don't prove, that although we seem to be establishing around 300:1 as the exchange rate, this is a false high. I'm not 100% convinced because there are a number of factors they're ignoring in their rather facile analysis, starting from the big two assumptions that everyone who has premium membership has annual membership, and everyone pays enough tier that a 'free' 512sqm's worth of tier is insignificant. This gives casual readers and those prone to listening to the FUG-mongers something extra to worry about - if the L$ crashes to the level these people predict (361:1) then cashing out at 315 NOW is better than waiting and cashing out next week (or month) at 360... Of course they might be feeling a bit sheepish now that it's back to 304...

Like this balloon?

It is a possibility it is a dead cat bounce -

lol that balloon perfeclty describes the SL market, unstable, unpredictable, and you never know when it's going to go up and down, you never know when Linden is going to pull a string and cause people to panic.

It's Saturday, the Linden almost always rises in value this time of the week. It will bounce by Monday, although probably not back to 315.

So why don't the big money holders sell on Saturday instead of Monday so they get more USD per Linden?

dunno. It's their day off? It's when I sell. Oh and there is always less demand on Monday which may be the real issue. The greatest days for demand are typically Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

I agree about demand on Monday but I see large sell orders generated very early on Mondays. Do you think the volume will exceed 10 million today?

doubtful

You should really not put too much emphasis on daily trends. It's like saying it rained today therefore it's going to rain all summer.

I'm just starting a data base on the number of residents ingame and the total Linden volume by the hour with a delta colume that shows the hourly change. I don't have much data yet but can see trends and yesterday predicted 10 million volume sometime in the morning. It looks like today we could get close again. There are more residents ingame today than yesterday at the same time but the real test is the max number and I don't have that from yesterday because I experienced a 7 hour blackout here in RL.

Sell, Sell, Sell!!!

Sell your USD