More Carnage L$ 329 / $1 USD... where does it stop? 5-25-06 8:12 PM PST

L$ down more and more on the day....

SELL
SELL
SELL

Get SOMETHING for your L$'s before its L$500 / $1 USD.

Actually....

BUY
BUY
BUY

I am getting something for my USD as I want to spend that L$ in-world. Not going to be stupid and buy it all at once (not like I have that much anyway) but a little wach day as the market closes ever higher pads my virtual pockets more.

I'm not looking to make a RW income by selling L$, but even my little buys are a way to remove the over-supply.

In the meantime, I'll take in-world advantage of out-world greed.

Sell me more, Jamie ^.^

~Jessy

I can't sell ! everytime i put a 100k sell order, it's undercut ...
Insane, huh ?

Edit : ding ! 330

The L$ is falling like a rock.... even much faster than I expected. At this rate, we'll be through the "magic rate" of L$ 361 / $1 USD by Monday 5-30-06.

Well... after all... maybe it's a good thing ?
I'm going to set my rental and land sale based on 361L$/USD

*grab the calculator .... mmm... they won't like that*

Meh, I dunno... the fact that the L$ can devalue this fast shows that no matter how LL tries to spin it, the economy is on shaky ground.

I mean, how is it going to look if transactions grew by 100% over four months, but the L$ dropped by 50%?

Kinda a pyrric victory. Plus, businesses looking for stability might decide they'd be better off dealing with some South American banana republic than brave the inflation rates here.

I still have a lot of faith and have sworn fealty to King Philip, I just wish he would do something about it. The inflation here is getting out of hand.

While i had my calculator, i checked something : My bankroll to run the "vertigo pro gamer" casino lost a bit more than 2000US$ in value... in just a few month.

*ouch*

Edit : OMG ! 329 ! it's raising
Edit : oops ! 335 ! tss...
Edit : No... wait... 329 again ! pfew !
Edit : Woootage ! 328 ! The sky is rocket powered

Yes, its serious.

Don't panic.

Really, take some deep breaths.

Think of it this way, everything in world just got 10% cheaper. Go buy all the stuff you'd been waiting to buy.

10% off? Where does this figure come from?

the L$ has fallen from L$250 --> L$329.... WAY more than 10%.

You advocate undercutting. That tactic is what pushes it down. Why bother complaining when you keep saying push lower?

Because the money supply is whats pushing it down... there is just too much money and not enough demand.

Then come up with a means of creating demand. Because I can tell you cutting stipends won't help, it will only lower sales.

Maybe you can make some original content?

Besides, you say the values dropping. I don't really see it that way. The buyers set the value, not the sellers..so what do you think the BUYERS are saying by not buying all that L?

If that rate is "magic" then it just might be the equilibrium value of the Linden currency. It's not healthy for an economy when a currency value is too low or too high. If the Linden is still overvalued at 329 then we just have to let it sink to where it's supposed to be, then we adjust our lifestyles accordingly.

Equilibrium is where buys and sells take place consistently in a narrow band.

First off its NOT INFLATION. The prices of in-world goods are roughly equivilant since i started playing in september. That means the economy is very healthy. If prices had been steadily climbing IN WORLD we would have inflation. Its also NOT devaluation. Prices have not plummted for in-world goods either.

Now what we DO have is the effects of day trading. Prices are set based on the people who DESPERATELY want to sell. And that situation will NEVER CHANGE no matter what Linden Labs does with how money money sinks and money fountains work in-world.

The reason prices drop is because instead of treating the LindeX as a place to dump spare cash or a place to try to grab some easy L$ people are stupid (yes STUPID) and are trying to turn SL into a place to make cash. Its not. There may be some truely successful FEW people but how many people is that in a population of a quarter million? The odds say that you WONT make money here. You're not SUPPOSED to either. You ARE supposed to socialize, invent, explore and anything else you want to have FUN here.

As long as even ONE person has a massive ammount of L$ on hand they want to GAURENTEE dump fast, that means they MUST post that money at the best $L/$USD ratio they can. There is currently somewhere in the order of tens of millions of L$ in circulation on the market waiting to sell. The total daily sales dont really break above 10million. So lets assume that for some oddball reason tomorrow NO NEW $L is posted. If another 10million $L is purchased that would cover the entire price range of sales from 328 - 316 $L/$usd. But we ALL know that millions more are put back onto the market. So the desperate few who want THEIR $L to be the ones sold have to post CHEAPER than the current AVERAGE. This is why the price keeps changing. Because there is more $L in supply than we have in demand.

Now if JUST the $L mega barons would stop posting THEIR offers cheaper, if they would talk to each other and just chose a price they would ALL post their sales at, then the small time sales would definately get purchased each day, BUT the $L barons themselves would still make their sales. And since the largest group of people putting the $L on the market would not be playing the 'me-first' game that would keep the day trading rate from falling so drastically. I know all the petty sellers would never be responsible enough, but the volume of those petty sales would be less than the daily volume, thus the 'standard' price would still at some point be the only thing available and gaurentee sales.

Think about it. There were still millions of $L exchanged each day back in september when the rate was 250$L / $usd. If some money baron right now felt like buying up all the $L available with a ratio of 320$L/$usd and reposting it at 319 or lower how much profit would that be?

Well regardless if the $L barons get together to fix the market or not its not gonna change the fact that everyone ELSE will be more than happy to post that 1$L better ratio than the next sale just to play the 'me-first' game and sell quick. Without some ORGANIZED effort to fix the prices intentionally (thru practice) i dont think the ratio will stop favoring the buyers till 500$L/1$usd. We get that much as a premium stipend. Its the defacto standard income so we wont reach a LindeX balance until that value is reached.

Or until some means of reducing the SUPPLY is implimented. I wrote a LOT of methods for reducing the $L supply in a fair manner. Take a look at it in the voting section or in feature request forums at

https://secondlife.com/vote/index.php?get_id=1368

I know most the debate there centered on what i listed for texture uploads but honestly if a designer isnt intuitive enough to go to the PREVIEW grid and spend renewable money i have no pity for them when it comes to repeatedly uploading the same texture. Please look at the OTHER methods. I seriously believe they would help a lot of SLs economics issues.

</rant>

hm, last week I had enough L$ to pay for my membership and land teir - this week I have more than that amount of L$ and it won't pay my bill...

This is ridiculous. Do I really have to adjust all my creation prices by 25% just to match this dwindling L$ value? Or could I just withdraw all investment of money and time and just give up on anyone fixing the rapidly plummeting linden value. If this thing tops out at 350L$/1$ I am seriously going to consider cancelling my account, selling all my land, and checking out RL a bit more, which tends to have at least a semblance of monetary stability and some regulation over the markets.

If users can drive down the value by this much in such a short relative period, then something is seriously wrong. Even if some idiot decided to sell his 10 million L$ for 500L$/1$ it should not completely throw the rest of the market into turmoil. LL should just suck it up and buy the way underpriced L$ and resell it back on the market at a normal rate for a tidy profit. That way everyone is happy.

And who is LindeX? - if it is not LL controlling our investments - because IT IS an investment for some of us - if it's some 3rd party investor/regulator, then of course it is in their best interests to lower the exchange rate - more 3.5% in their pockets per transaction. Even tho L is sold at a lower value, sales will increase with increasing market panic.

Look, I just want to get by, do my thing, sell my profits, thus allowing me to further get by and do my thing. Every month I calculate how much I need to make or sell to pay for my account - and every month it becomes more. This has to stop or I think a lot of ppl will lose interest or start thinking it's some scam controlled by corporate fat-cats who don't care about the little man.

The whatever-mega-baron are the most concerned by any single move in the L$ value.
Trust me, they want a stable L$ value.

I set my rental price in my private island using a 300L$/US$.
The L$ was slowly moving between 290 and 300, so it was fine.
Now it's over 325 ... i lose money, everyday.
My bankroll to keep my casino up and running lost 2000US$ in value, in just a few month.

But, yes, of course, it my fault, i keep undercut the L$ Market because i'm stupid and i don't mind losing 2000US$ and losing money every day in land rental. You just said that, isn't it ?

Oh and... trust me... the last thing you really want is to make the "mega baron" to speak eachother and own the whole SL economy.

The answer is... it's not going to stop. We are headed for a certified market crash, pure and simple.

Didn't anyone at LL (especially their hired economist) learn anything from the 1920s? What happens when you have a totally unregulated market where people can manipulate it to their will and force others to sell at prices they would not otherwise be willing to sell at?

What happens when an already glutted market is increased on a weekly basis?

The L$ is headed for disaster, pure and simple. Linden Lab and LindeX are driving the system right into a major market crash. They were warned about that inevitability weeks before LindeX first opened. What amazes me is that so many LL sycophants and LL themselves keep denying that fact in the face of a pretty obvious trendline.

A related thread:
/130/73/108542/1.html

First: anyone who owns land should expect every month to pay their tier OUT OF THEIR WALLETS. If you think you deserve to earn enough $L a month to pay your tier for free you're insane. Any $USD you make from the LindeX is a BONUS due to providing stuff people like. But if you cant afford your entire tier OUT OF POCKET then dont own that much land. PERIOD. There simply is not enough demand for $L as there is supply so the price will drop indefinately until money sinks are increased and the ammount of $L people can afford to PUT in the LindeX isnt more than the demand.

I know they do. But the ACTIONS they take are counter productive to that goal because of greed. And their greed for wanting to sell FAST is what is gonna decrease the value, and in the END will lower their earnings rather than increase.

If you cant afford to pay your tier with ZERO L$ income then you shouldnt have the tier. Not my fault if you're not a smart consumer.

Yes IT IS your fault if you attempt undercutting. Your behaviour lowers the avg price thus REDUCING your own profits. Self mutilation at its best.



Actually i could care less. I dont rely on the LindeX and anyone with the maturity and responsibility that our ASSUMED age-group of 18+ implies would also know they shouldnt rely on a virtual currency for real world income. Dont spend past your means. Dont maintain a tier you cant afford on your own. And set your IN WORLD creation costs based on what your IN WORLD expenses are. Dont rely on 'virtual' money expected value. Thats the same as buying a house because next week you EXPECT to win the lottery.

Sorry, can't really agree with anything you said.



There are a BUNCH of sim owners that would completely disagree with you-- and they have the data to prove it. There is nothing insane in figuring out how to to make a sim pay for itself; what would be insane would be to pay $3,500 a year for virtual land without any hope of recouping that expense.

Elf Clan has four sims. There is no way we could do that out of our own pockets. Object all ya want... Second Life is an economy-based system. The only two "insane" things about that is trying to ignore that fact... and ruining the economy as LindeX is ruining it right now.