Will the New Continent Devalue Our Land in the Old?

I ask this question without any sense of angst, but out of curiosity, as to how it works, and what the cycles are in SL. I have been in various one-on-one and group conversations about this issue, and I find a lot of rumours and speculation about it.

I find that if you put a pricetag on a piece of land, it sells. Funny thing, that. It sells maybe not as quickly as you like, maybe not always as high a price as you like, but it sells, sometimes even in the laggiest, craggiest places. And it sells even if the Lindens roll out 10 new better sims than that, because there's always a reason for somebody to buy that particular parcel.

The question is, will the new continent means that everybody stampedes out there the way they now tend to stampede out to new sims?

I see this happen a lot -- people rush in to settle a new sim where they think it is pretty and not-laggy. They set about actually making it ugly and laggy themselves, but human nature being what it is, they think lag is always something that begins next door, never in my back yard, and then they leave -- taking their lag with them. But...it's human nature, and to be expected. A few remain behind, snap up the cheaper land, and sometimes live happily ever after on a quieter, less laggy sim LOL.

I'm figuring that if the new continent has sand (and what IS a continent anyway? One big chunk? 8 sims? zoned?) or some texture never known to simkind, it will be a huge draw and maybe even get expensive on the auctions. I'm assuming it will be on auctions, but who knows?

Having no experience to compare it to, I'm figuring it will be like Dragon's Cove in TSO (yeah, yeah, go back to TSO where you came from Prokofy, feh). Everyone abandoned Alphaville and the other cities and stampeded into DC and you couldn't even log into it for a time. Then they worked it in a frenzy, then realized even with all the new features it was really same-old, same-old, then they ebbed back to their old places. In SL, with the complexifying factor of land sales and so on, I'm thinking when people surge out, land values will drop farther on the old continent -- in some ways they are already dropping on some mature and most PG -- and then some people will realize they don't have to fight the crowds and lag on the new continent (yes, our old friend Sir Lagalot will be sure to greet us even in this new world). They'll realize that they could go back to the old continent, and pick up some parcels for a song. Then everyone realizing that will drive the prices back up? I dunno.

Most players who have been around compare the continents thing to the snow sims. They figure there will be a huge run on them, an overvaluation, a corrective, an undervaluation, whatever.

Many people, possibly including the Lindens, will be only too happy if the land barons take it in the chops on the new continent. They'll be happy to see their stock devalued. But then they have to balance that against the harsh fact that their own land, and its resale value to be able to move to that new continent, will *also* be devalued. They will liquidate in their zeal to get to the Next Big Thing. And the land barons will get lots MORE cheap land, more than they even had! Then they can afford to sit, and dole it out later. Or they sell it cheap, but with GOM/Lindens working more and more to their favor, they keep cashing out for more.

As with most new game things, some class of people will be sure to suffer, and will be sure to howl. Who will it be this time?

I don't think it will devalue our land.

There may be a slight drop in demand for a bit. It certainly won't be like the chaos that ensued after the 1.2 landmass was added, or even the milder frenzy after the snow sims were added.

It sounds like this is going to be a departure from normal land. Therefore, I am thinking it won't have that much effect on prices across the board.

Good job btw, you almost (the go back to TSO comment is borderline) made a clean post, and it was free of vulgarities directed at the "FIC".

BTW, Happy Birthday.

Linden's maintain price stability. They have stated this many times.

I can neither confirm nor deny the existence of any supposed New Continent.

People rush out to buy land in new sims sometimes just because they need a bigger chunk of contiguous land than they have been able to piece together in an established sim. I know that's why we bought at auction when Riiki opened up. Unless you are the rankest noob, you understand that new sims will quickly fill up and have all the same problems as the old ... and that your new neighbors are a crapshoot.

Every sim added devalues the rest of the land, at least a bit.
Then again, every newb that joins increases land values, at least a bit.

Do these things balance out? I think that LL is pretty good at it so far.

I hope there is an initial over-misvaluation(irrational land rush) so I can buy low in other places. Then when the correction happens, and more people join, I can sell high.

Some land barons are liquidating now and selling lots of land at lower prices because they believe their land will be devalued in the new continent, or just the general trend, and they want to be on the right side of history -- and the Linden/dollar exchange : )

Only if new land appears faster than new members.