Where is SL on this chart?

According to Ray Kurzweil ("The Age of Spiritual Machines", computing power will reach equivalency with that in the human brain around the year 2025.

I find myself wondering if, at that point, our brains will lag? Will TP fail and prims disappear at random?

You can build the biggest computer in history, but if you're using SL's asset server system, you may as well keep carrier pigeons on hand for that "must get through" data.

Where do you think Second Life is on this chart? ...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/ba/PPTSuperComputersPRINT.jpg

What a cool chart, Cindy! Great find. I'd put it in line with the Google Earth simulator.

Speaking as someome who develops computational models of the brain and spinal cord, I can say that Kurtzweil is out of his depth when he talks about the brain...

Huh? Who is this guy?

Has Mr Kurtzweil ever heard of Hans Moravec and his theories about computational equivalency? (cit: "When will computer hardware match the human brain?", 1997)

He even has a purdy comparison chart, too.

While I think people like Moravec are doing awesome by trying to emulate human systems such as vision, I'm not at all convinced we can draw magical dates out of the air and state computers will be self-aware by X based on current computer hardware.

Let's assume that consciousness doesn't require some kind of nondeterministic X-factor (see the Orch-OR model by Penrose/Hameroff) which can't be emulated by current hardware -- then it means that even by 20XX, we'll just have computers that can run the same number of cycles as the human brain. The software will still need to be written to put them to such use.

It's just like how we have bipedal robots, now. Humanoid ones that can walk, talk, grab things and interact with our world. But they are as brainless as those Robo-Sapiens you can buy in the toy store. They're just waldos at the moment, with limited self-guidance.

The software of the mind is a very difficult problem. I doubt we'll see a solution in our lifetimes.

Anyway... This argument is OLD. Goes back to the Plato and Aristotle.

Project management timelines never go awry. This should be dead accurate

secondlife doesnt actually think about anything so it wouldnt be on the chart at all

lets break it down abit. software like SL has been around for quite some time, now is is probally the most advanced but its still is basic point a to point b transfer process display that computer software has used for decades

everything is predefined, even user stuff, like if i rez a cube the system basicly grabs what a cube is, and where it is and sends it off, how it knows what to grab is predefined elsewhere in the code, which that definition is stored somewhere else ect and its all linked together

its like taking an open book test with copy, paste and a quicksearch.. even a living thinking being wouldnt need any thought to preform that task

while there is AI you have to understand that that AI is still get do send type programs, usually within extreamly limited situations

"Hi im generic bad guy, your in the same room as me, the closest defined cover for me to head to is this exploding barrel", reasonably this can be done (slowly) with llGetPos volume detect and llSetPos and the above mention of predefined data tomes ..

mathmaticly they have always been faster than the human brain, if we could take a 10 mile tall pile of numbers and calulate their result in a short time we wouldnt have invented them or their forerunners

with my electronics work i cant biuld a digital ciruit, jack it into my pc, turn on the pc and have it instantly work, heck the stupid PC has to have software just to turn on (bios)

and when my cat decided she was gonna walk in and live here i didnt have to reteach her every little step on how to eat just becuase i changed the input from mice to iams

Mr Kurtzweil is some dude back in the dawn of microcomputers had some geinus thoughts about digital music creation... and propelling realistic digital instruments (mainly keyboards) into the mainstream

which is great fine and dandy, but that market hasnt advanced worh jack since the 80's ended, when i was with the local yamaha ppl their newest badass model digital keyboard had 14.4khz samples and a floppy disk on it (but they added 1 usb port that the floppy disk used up and a smart card reader ohhh)

needless to say thats about 7 years behind what you can do with a good soundcard and some good software without the 15 grand pricetag

2025 might be a bit early seeing as research scientists are beginning to believe that the human brain actually operates on the quantum level to some degree. And I am too lazy to look up where I read that.

did He use Moore's Law in determing this?