Land Market: the yawn before the storm?

I've been ignoring the mainland list for a while, but I saw some land listed for L$5.9 a meter, so I popped in and bought it. Then I relisted at L$6.3 which still put it at the top of the front page of the mainland land search.

It's not great land...butts up against an atrocious ad farm, but nobody even came to check it out in the half hour I was there. People aren't even curious right now. The cheapest land of 500 sims' worth and no one can muster enough enthusiasm to even tp in to look at it.

Something else I observed. We have had several weeks of virtually no new sims to auction. Historically, prices should have gone up at least a full L$1 per meter. But they haven't. Barons aren't pushing the prices up by flipping. And we have yet to see the impact the VAT fiasco will have on the market.

Strange and scary times.

i think people are afraid of getting burned.
im curious whats going to happen once the euros start dumping their land. _very_ interested to see what happens when one or two big players in the scene stop playing.

I'm strange. But more, I'm sad that I never see you around anymore, Ray! Where ARE you these days? Jeesh.

LOL!!!

Currently, the lowest price is 6.3L/m
3 512's at that price, then 1 at 6.4, then 18 at 6.5
Names on the 3 lowest priced plots :

1. Sarah Nerd kicks ass!
2. Sarah Nerd is teh sexiest!
3. Total Crapland!

Love #3

Note: What appears to be an avatar name in the above, is actually just text in a land description, so I'm not naming names. I'm not even implying that any particular avatar is associated with that land. k?

No VAT Question.. but why should I buy some Land now... who no one realy knows who LL going to be in the furture.

When you take your Time and TP around to the Estate for rent.. you will find nice Beach Land's of any Size.

Sale 1 L$ + Tier... and well in some cases this is just a Rental Box in some Corner.
I still have a few LM selectet who the ask for 1800 qm with 420 Prims just 1000L$ a Week. and this with Ocean front... not just some Water around the Land.
No Premium Member (no VAT) where ever you live and no problem to moving on, when you have some neighbors you don't like.

Mainland I must be Premium. 9.90 US$
I have to buy the Land Ocean with Waterfront 12 - 15 + L$-qm... mean easy to pay 20.000 L$ + just to move in. You can resell it again.. and will get your Money back.. (sometime) but when you have to move on fast (Neighbors trouble / what ever)
and can't sell it quick... you have to buy a new Plot.. wait for resell the first one.. and pay dopple Tier to LL.... NO thank you.
If I need 1536 qm with less Prims (351) I pay at least + 8 US$ Tier
If I need more Prims and have to buy 2048/2560 I pay 15 US$ Tier

Anyway.. even with 8 US$ / Month Tier + 9.90 Premium Ac. I spent nearly 4900L$ / Month for LL and get 1200 back from LL as Stip. = 3.700 L$ for me.

With renting a place I spent 300 L$ more every Month.. but don't have to buy some Land for 20 - 30 K in first place.. and can easy move on.. if I find something better.

Just my View why I would not buy any Land now.

True if you owen your own Land, you can nearly do what you whant with it.
But your Neightbores even.. and this can be a Drama.. if you get the wrong one.

Bunchoo

there is a landbot that is buying at 5.9, it's a good opportunity if you have to sell crap land before the storm

This must be a slow one
the 512 & 1024 qm Plots for 5.9 are listet for around 1/2 Hour befor the went into sold.

Anyway I guess.. If Bot or Human that the *Landbarons will buy at this price, to hold the own Land Price up and over 6.3 / .5
Question is how long the can do this...

Just found under serach someone who offer a "few" Sims for sale.. all emty he say.
I check the Profile to see who it is... and ta ta.. a new Avi.. Born 09/24 a week old no Information.... only Keywords.

Try to hide his rush out of SL..? that other Landbarons not follow to fast.?

I'am not a Landexpert... no realy not... just wonder who the price will end, when the (60 Days log in member) number drop below 1.000.000 and there is far to much Land for Sale or for rent.

Bunchoo

I have a real optimist near me. He's selling an 6-plot lot at over 20L per m2 - comes out at L$ 65,000. And he's already dropped the total price by L$ 35,000.

Nearby 512s are going for between 5-6,000, which is still slightly optimistic.

But this is the classic argument of renting (flexibility plus no invested capital to recoup) vs. owning (control plus equity upside potential). As the market shifts around with land prices coming down, the calculus may change somewhat because the cost of investing capital is lower up front -- but it depends on what is available for rent and at what prices, as well as how committed you want to be to SL. If you're just kind of here and there and may not be around in a couple months, then I think renting is always the way to go.

The base price of a standard plot of 512m green land may be recovering slowly but I have seen "premium" lands go up considerably. There is only a certain amount of mainland beach that doesn't have crap in front of it. Most of it was bought up during the land glut and what remains is more expensive. I just saw such a plot get resold successfully at $19.77L a meter.

That land was bought last week, before the VAT was announced. It's unclear how that will effect land prices. I haven't seen any large scale land dumping yet on the mainland. My theory is that most Europeans who were in SL to rent land to others bought islands-not mainland to do it. I *have* seen a lot of islands listed recently for sale--though whether those were Euro sellers I don't know.

I think the effect may not be as extreme on the mainland. The Europeans I've talked to who own land on the mainland already considered SL an entertainment expense and were not concerned about the VAT. They are here for fun and don't have a profit margin to consider. Most are staying and are still considering buying *more* land. Even with VAT, RL currency rates *still* probably make it cheaper for them to hold land.

I could be wrong, but I think land search might be broken. I've just checked a 1024 plot which is now two 512s and a plot for sale by a Linden road which is no longer for sale. Might account for some sales oddities?

Anyone else seen this today?

It seemed to work ok for me, but while I was hopping around I bumped into some others who use land search alot that said it was acting funny today. Sold parcels staying in the list too long for example.

As for things being slow, in the half hour or so I watched, every parcel at the bottom that I got to either was sold before I arrived or got snatched up while I was standing there with multiple avi's TPing in and out (though not as many as I have often seen in the past). All that action though took place at under 6.1- 6.2 per sq meter. Some "protected water" came up for 5.6 and was snatched by a bot before any of the 4 avi's that TP'd in (myself included) got there.

Also, the traffic I used to see when I was out looking on parcels near the bottom of the land search but still just above where are all the fast trading takes place (right now maybe 6.2-6.4) were often people just looking to get into land flipping. I talked to several people pacing around parcels trying to decide if this was the one that was going to get them to take the leap into buying and selling, or they were small time flippers that didn;t buy soley based on price yet. My guess would be there are alot fewer people interested in taking that leap at the moment, but I have been way out of the land loop for awhile (as if I was ever really in it! Geez. I need coffee).

I paid L$13,000 for my 512 snow plot, back when land prices were a little crazier, but I don't regret it. I love my little place and I hope to stay there for as long as I can.

I seriously think that people are more reluctant to buy land because they're not sure how the whole "Restricted Content" and "Verification" stuff is going to shake out. People may wind up leaving in droves if they find it cramps their style a little too much.

That makes sense.

November / December / January will tell us everything.

Actually, a land glut is *good* for the grid in general.

Consider that a high cost of land will drive people to other platforms.

There are some shocks still to come:

- What happens with voice and the older 195/mo island sims is going to be significant, should pricing change.

- The first 'real' competition (still not even over the horizon yet)

- The next server class (should it be significantly better or worse, and all that implies)

- The next major client upgrade that raises the bar on minimum hardware. Can't improve the grid forever without touching that one.



Oddly, I think 'open source' may not be as big a bump as it may be considered.

While we decry service and uptime here, just try putting such things in the hands of casual amateurs. And as for connecting to the grid, I don't think the Company will say: here, rape us blind financially and we'll help you! It will be some significant cash to hook up to the grid as we know it in terms of licencing fees.

Confidence and trust.

- Very laggy generally for the past few weeks
- Gripes about the bandwidth effect and reliability of voice
- Retail sales said to be down
- Prices falling and auction stop/start. Sim releases not quite as LL blogged
- A lot of very good land not moving despite the price not being outrageous.
- LL leaving the status of open water sims in doubt.
- Verification uncertainties
- The V-word, its effect and particularly its handling, just added to the mix

LL as uncommunicative in real terms as ever.

Uncertainty.


Personally, I'm spending way less time in SL than I used to.
I've bought land in Corsica, but now I'm holding back. Building time can wait until I see how things go.
Tier is an issue, and I hesitate to take on much more until I see a way to be somewhat sure of subsidising it from retail and rental. No guarantees of course, but informed faith is better than blind hope.

"Yawn before the storm"?
- yawn before turning over and curling up more like

Maybe I'll get me a furry avatar and hibernate.

From the first post, it seems like he's sitting on empty parcels.

Hey, to each his own.

Aww...that is a sad image. Figgy, all by himself on empty parcels surrounded by ad lots.
I hope he isn't just sitting there on some plywood cube.

Would just add: if heaven forfend there should be a tier increase on Mainland, there just will be no bottom to the market, and it will take island resale and rental down with it. The Mainland barons are not gonna eat tier for all that yellow on the map forever without any buyers, and a tier increase would trigger liquidation faster than any other event, since it would simultaneously decrease buyer demand--slowing turnover--and raise the cost of holding inventory.Absolutely correct analysis. I mean, if folks think they can trim a few pennies off the low-margin hosting costs LL is paying colos, more power to 'em, but if they think interconnecting with the grid will be anything like free, I can offer them a real good deal on Gorean office blocks. (And if they aren't planning on interconnecting--when they figure out how to issue their own currency and provide login and asset services--well, won't their micro-grid be "special"?

I actually would bet that 3rd-party sims will generally be more expensive, not less, than the original grid for regular residents. Offering premium services such as unadvertised R-rated experiences without verification, lifestyle-tailored covenants, new prim allotment schemes, lalala .....

And you are right Qie, people will only be interested in sims that are tied to the grid. Which means, I think, that the whole thing won't come about for general residents until the spring. I'm just guessing, but if I were LL I would get the standards process for inter-grid communication well along, and work it out with IBM and SUN first, before rolling it out for my nephew to use ...

Yeah, I'm not as social as I appear on the forums. I guess I am just self-conscious about my lisp.

I was, but it's not as sad as it sounds...it was a sculpty cube.


Well LL appears to share the trepidation...no new mainland to auction at all...

I had a babybaron buy one of my 512 plots for $3244. He has relisted it for $3333. I hope he gets the 50 cents worth of profit he is looking for. I used to do that too, until I realized I was making about five cents per hour when I factored in how much time I was spending relisting plots at 2am. Glad I stopped that madness.

At least it wasn't -$0.05. But either way... madness.

[NON_PC WARNING]
A listph? Raymond? You're... like...... gay?
[/NON_PC WARNING]


It would only be sad if you were sitting *inside* the cube.

LOL! When I first typed that, it typed it as "sinning inside the cube". Now that would be sad




*If* I were to play at being a baby baron, I would have to take a tier jump of US$50 - just to buy a 512. After flipping a thousand or so bottom-feeding plots at tiny markups, I'd nearly break even.
I could make a Premium alt and start tier over, but ..... flipping 512s is soooooooo sad.

I'm heavily into Value Added - and I'm not talking about the tax here

All alone . . .sinning . . .just sinning .. sinning away in his cube . . ..